U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: We're joined now by the Vice President of the Middle East and North Africa Center at the United States Institute of Peace, Mona Yacoubian joins us now. Welcome, good morning. How are you?

Mona Yacoubian: I'm well, Laura. Good morning.

Laura Coates: I'm glad that you're here. Thank you for joining us today. You know, I'm so glad that we're going outside of the country focusing on the international implications here of what's happening in the region over there as well. Can you give us a little bit of a step back for a moment though. Because earlier this month, there was something significant happening in terms of Syria and Assad's readmission to the Arab League. Tell me about why that was so significant and what happened?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah, it's really nothing short, I think of a sea change. That this brutal dictator, who has been in conflict with his own people for well, more than a decade, was, as you noted, readmitted back into the Arab League. Saudi Arabia normalized ties, you have other countries, Jordan, Egypt, all bringing him back into the fold of the Arab nations. And so, this is a very significant development in that conflict.

Laura Coates: Why was that decision made and what were the circumstances?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah, no. In fact, I think what's happened is, collectively, these regional countries have come to the conclusion that Bashar al-Assad is entrenched in power, he's not going anywhere. And they have decided that isolation doesn't work. They're dealing with many challenges emanating from Syria, whether it's refugees, illicit drugs. And so, they've decided rather than continuing to isolate Assad, they need to bring him back into the fold as a way of dealing with these many, many challenges that are spilling over into their countries.

Laura Coates: There was a catastrophic earthquake in Syria and also in Turkey just a few months ago. Has that had an impact on this decision?

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, absolutely. So, the earthquake, I mean, this trend toward normalization was already well established before the earthquake, but the earthquake really accelerated the trend. It provided, in a sense, political cover for these countries to go into Syria. You had a series of foreign ministers, for example, visiting Assad in Damascus, you had Assad himself taking trips to the region, then, of course, you had this kind of significant development of his re admission and joining the meeting of the Arab League, in May.

Laura Coates: Tell me about some of the issues you're talking about spilling over. And I want to dig more deeply into the idea of the Captagon Trade that's happening. It's emanating from Syria and the refugee issues that are continuing to happen, especially their hosting by neighboring countries in Lebanon, and Jordan, as well as others. What has been the confluence of that?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah. So, in terms of the Captagon Trade, this is an amphetamine like drug, which started its manufacture began in Syria during the time when ISIS was there. You have that now the Assad regime and associated militias, taking over manufacture of this illicit drug, essentially turning Syria into a narcos state and Captagon has been flowing through Jordan into Saudi Arabia. The Saudis in particular, very concerned about this drug coming into their society and so this is one of the reasons they've been pushing on Assad to basically stave this growing drug trade. You also, as you rightly note, have the issue of Syrian refugees, and that's a long-standing challenge. Lebanon, which is going through its own very significant economic crisis, hosts the largest number of refugees per capita in the world. You also have Turkey, which hosts the largest number of Syrian refugees, period, and they too, are going through an economic decline. So, you have growing fatigue in these countries with hosting Syrian refugees and increasing pressure to push them back into Syria.

Laura Coates: How is that fatigue manifesting? Is there increasing anti refugee sentiment that's happening, has there been capitalized in politics there? What's going on?

Mona Yacoubian: Yeah, absolutely. I mean, you're seeing, for example, in Turkey, where Erdogan recently was reelected, one of the key issues that he campaigned on was, you know, basically the need for Syrian refugees to go back to Syria. You see growing incidents of hostility and even violence both in Turkey and in Lebanon, aimed at Syrian refugees. In Lebanon, we've seen the Lebanese army, forcibly beginning to deport some Syrian refugees. So, this is an issue, Laura, that's a growing challenge in the region, particularly since the refugees themselves are understandably quite reluctant to return to Syria, as long as Assad is still in power. In fact, the UN Refugee Agency recently conducted a survey of Syrian refugees, and only 1% said that they intended to return within the next 12 months.

Laura Coates: What impact is this having on the United States? I mean, the United States has been opposed, adamantly so, to normalization, and I'm wondering now that there has been a decision to bring Syria back into the fold. Has it changed the United States position at all?

Mona Yacoubian: You know, so you're seeing adamant, as you know, opposition to normalization, there was even a bill recently introduced in Congress, a bipartisan bill, that is attempting to stave off any particular normalization of Assad, to double down on existing sanctions and punish countries that choose to normalize with the Assad regime. At the same time, you have the Biden administration, which has adopted I guess you'd call it a more pragmatic position in which they are, of course not at all interested, the U.S. will not normalize with Assad, but the Biden administration has said, for those that choose to normalize, make sure you get something for it, you know, seek concessions from the Assad regime. I think there's a lot of skepticism about what Assad would possibly concede. And I think ultimately, what we see is just a fundamental tension between the need for accountability and fatigue in the region, with this long-standing conflict and its spillover effects.

Laura Coates: What are the, I think you've referenced this, what are the Caesar Sanctions?

Mona Yacoubian: So, the Caesar Sanctions are sanctions that were passed by Congress in 2019, that sanction any investment in a number of sectors of the Syrian economy. And they also include secondary sanctions, which means the US will sanction a third country that should choose to invest in various elements of the Syrian economy. So, it's not just sanctioning directly, but actually secondary sanctions that sanction a third country that might choose to invest in reconstruction or other elements of the Syrian economy.

Laura Coates: Are there other, I mean, we're talking about Syria, but what is the next country to watch regarding normalization? I'm curious to see if there are other things on the horizon.

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, absolutely. I think we need to watch Turkey very closely. We've already seen very significant probes toward normalizing ties between Turkey and Syria, there have been meetings at the foreign minister level at the defense minister level and as I said, this is something that Erdogan campaigned on. I also think we actually have to watch some of the Southern European countries, Italy, for example, which seems to have indicated an interest in reopening ties with Assad. The Italians, for example, sent aid to the Assad regime right after the earthquake. So, I'm afraid this normalization trend is not slowing and may indeed be accelerating.

Laura Coates: Has Russia played a role in any of this?

Mona Yacoubian: I think the Russians are thrilled by it. This is precisely what they had been seeking to see in particular that the region would normalize with Assad, would provide, they're looking for reconstruction funds that of course, they're quite taken with the war in Ukraine, but I think they are certainly benefiting from this indirectly.

Laura Coates: There's so much more to unpack. I'm so glad that you've given us so much illumination on this issue. Thank you for being a part of the program this morning. Good morning to you, have a great rest of your day.

Mona Yacoubian: Thank you so much, Laura. Appreciate it.