U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Julie Mason 
I'm Julie Mason. Ambassador William B. Taylor is vice president for Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace. In 2019, he served as chargé d'affairs at the U.S. Embassy in Kyiv. During the Arab Spring, he oversaw U.S. assistance and support to Egypt, Tunisia, Libya, and Syria. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from '06 to '09. Ambassador, good morning. Thank you for joining me.

William Taylor 
Morning, Julie. It's great to be here.

Julie Mason 
Can you tell us what you saw over the weekend, where the situation stands in Ukraine and how well equipped the Ukrainians are to hold off the Russians?

William Taylor 
So the amazing thing over the weekend and continuing to today is that the Ukrainian military continues to hold off this overwhelmingly large Russian military assault. The Ukrainian military is fighting to keep the Russian military out of major cities. Again, the Russians have a lot more soldiers and a lot more tanks and a lot more equipment than the Ukrainians do. And Ukrainians are putting up a hard fight. Also over the weekend, though, Julie, what you see is the international community more broadly, you see nations that are expressing their strong support for Ukraine, and their outrage at Russia. Russia is now, Julie, a pariah state. Mr. Putin is a war criminal. It is clear that the international community, that the world community at the UN and virtually all other organizations, recognize this unprecedented, unprovoked, unjustified aggression by Russia against Ukraine. So the international tide is clearly turning against Russia.

Julie Mason 
You know, what's interesting is to read about some of the effects of the sanctions from the West that we've seen. One that's stuck out in my mind particularly was basically a halt to like short haul flights between Russia and Europe. And the notation that middle class Russians had really for so long now enjoyed an easy trip to Italy or easy trip to London. And now that's cut off, they're cut off from that. And it just seems to me day to day life is about to be severely impacted there.

William Taylor 
It is going to be severely impacted. And it's sad, but true that everyday Russians that are going to pay the price for Vladimir Putin's aggression and his decision and his ego. There's, again, no reason for this other than President Putin wants to be seen somehow, as a great Russian leader. He's going to go down in history as an autocrat who killed hundreds of thousands of people. And we know what history has said about previous autocrats who have done that in the last century, he will be in that category.

Julie Mason 
And it's too bad for the Russian people. They obviously have some, many of them seem to have some reservations, to say the least, about what's happening. Thousands are now jailed for protesting.

William Taylor 
Absolutely. And it's gonna get worse, it's gonna be worse, really, before it gets better. The economic sanctions that we just talked about are going to make the Russian people's lives poorer. There's just no doubt about that. And there are a lot of Russian soldiers being killed in Ukraine. The Ukrainian military is effective at defending themselves. And what that means is they are stopping Russian attacks, and Russian tanks, and Russian soldiers coming across the border into Ukraine. And those Russian soldiers are being killed. Ukrainian soldiers are being killed, let's be clear. Ukrainian civilians are being killed, let's be clear. But the Russian soldiers, who many don't even know why they're being sent into Ukraine, they're being killed. And when they go back to their villages and their towns across Russia, for burial, those families are going to be asking, "why are our sons and daughters and fathers and brothers being killed for no purpose?" That, together with this worsening economic situation is going to cause a great – is already causing, as you pointed out, Julie – already causing a great backlash in Russia against this invasion.

Julie Mason 
Of course, that's part of the rationale behind these sanctions, to divide Putin from support from his own people.

William Taylor 
That's part of the rationale. The other part of the rationale is to frankly weaken the Russian economy. If the Russian economy is weakened, then it will be less able to pursue this war. War is expensive. And the thought that the Russians may be able to occupy Ukraine – Ukraine is a large country, the size of Texas, the size of France. And to think that the Russians can occupy this and control this is hard to believe, it is impossible to believe. They can't do it. And the Ukrainian people will resist, and it will be extremely expensive, even for the Russians just to try.

Julie Mason 
Ambassador, what prospects do you have for these chats between Zelenskyy and Putin today?

Julie Mason 
Well of course, neither President Zelenskyy nor President Putin will be at these talks. They have sent delegations. The Ukrainian delegation is headed up by the Deputy Foreign Minister. So it's a credible, well prepared, experienced delegation that will be there ready to talk if there's something to talk about. The Russians, on the other hand, have sent a former culture minister, which suggests to me and others that the Russians are not serious about these talks.

Julie Mason 
A culture minister!

William Taylor 
A culture minister. A former culture minister, exactly.

Julie Mason 
And Ambassador, what do you make of the decision by Belarus to throw its lot in with Russia?

William Taylor 
No surprise, Julie, sadly. The president of Belarus, Lukashenko, has been under the thumb of President Putin since President Lukashenko lost his bid for reelection overwhelmingly. And he had to go to get support from President Putin. So there's no surprise that the Belarussians have thrown in with the Russians.

Julie Mason 
And the conduct of President Biden, it seems like we would probably be hearing from him more on this, on the subject of Ukraine. I mean, he's busy today with other stuff, but he is having meetings with allies.

William Taylor 
Biden, and indeed, his whole administration has been remarkably active, unprecedented diplomatic effort to rally the international community, NATO, the European Union, other European states, the Far East, the Japanese, the Australians. It's been an unprecedented diplomatic effort to both rally the support for Ukraine, oppose Russia and put sanctions, serious sanctions, international sanctions on the Russians. The Russians have lost in the UN due to a strong effort by the Biden administration. So this has been a major effort. President Biden and President Zelenskyy have stood shoulder-to-shoulder. I am sure that President Putin is astounded and surprised and dismayed at the unity of these two together.

Julie Mason 
It certainly seems like Russia has been surprised by the force or the ferocity of the Ukrainian uprising, the civilian uprising and how effective their military has been. Of course, the question is, how long can the Ukrainians maintain that?

William Taylor 
That is indeed the question. But there were people asking exactly that question after the first day and said, "How long can Ukrainians hold that?" Well, here's the fifth day. Five times as long as some people thought. They are fighting hard. But you're right, Julie, it's ten to one, the odds are stacked against the Ukrainians. They are fighting for their own home. They're fighting for their own land. They're fighting for their own freedom. And that gives them a motivation that the Russians just don't have, the Russian soldiers just don't have. So they are valiant, they're brave, they're effective. But they're fighting against overwhelming odds.

Julie Mason 
Really wonderful insight from you, Ambassador. Thank you so much for joining me this morning.