Ahead of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s long-awaited visit to Washington, USIP’s Donald Jensen says many in D.C. “see the [Ukrainian] fight against corruption as a key benchmark” in determining the future of U.S. assistance, including for Ukraine’s ongoing conflict with Russia.

On Peace is a weekly podcast sponsored by USIP and Sirius XM POTUS Ch. 124. After a brief hiatus, On Peace is available again on a weekly basis. Each week, USIP experts tackle the latest foreign policy issues from around the world.

Transcript

Julie Mason: Donald Jensen is director of Russia and strategic stability for the United States Institute of Peace, Donald, good morning. 

Donald Jensen: Good morning. Thanks for having me on again. 

Julie Mason: Yeah, great to have you. Um, the idea of the of the Ukrainian leader coming to the US to meet with Biden fills me with a sense of dread.

Donald Jensen: It should not, I think that would be my own personal take. It's been a fraught discussion about whether and when this would take place going back to the Trump administration. So what's gonna happen? The Ukrainians are also very interested in high tech, they have a developed high tech sector of their own. And so he'll be going to California after he sees the president.

Julie Mason: Interesting, not unlike Medvedev, who came to visit Obama and also spent a little time out in California.

Donald Jensen: I remember, I remember very well.

Julie Mason: So Zelensky coming to D.C., August 31. This long postponed meeting, boy Ukraine has been trying to get to the White House for a long time now.

Donald Jensen: It has, it has. Ukraine has a number of needs, that we know, and they're very serious ones: military assistance, above all; they need to reform parts of their economy; and also, corruption remains a big, big, controversial issue, not only in general, but with the U.S. in particular. As you may have seen, the president criticized Ukraine's record on fighting corruption the other day, and Zelensky snapped back: Well, it happens everywhere. They are trying, not with enough success, I think.

Julie Mason: We've definitely lost a lot of moral high ground in recent years, we may never get it back. Even Ukraine is making fun of us now.

Donald Jensen: Yes, I think that's true. And that's was a very, very rare comment. They are trying, just, the results have not been what either side has has wanted it. And of course, Ukraine has its critics, not only in Moscow, but elsewhere in Europe, Western Europe, and also here and people see fighting against corruption as a key, a key benchmark of whether we should go further and assist them some more in all of their needs, including military. 

Julie Mason: How is Zelensky doing domestically? 

Donald Jensen: He came into office, as you may recall, with a wave of enthusiasm, a lot of new-breed people who were not in public life during the previous administrations or the Soviet era, of course. His polling is gone down a lot. I think there's no other alternative right now for most Ukrainian voters. So if I were to, to predict I would say he would get reelected in a couple of years, but he's certainly not as popular. He emphasized his ability to bring the war to a close, he emphasized his ability to fight corruption. And he's not been particularly successful on either, although, of course, with the fighting in Donbas, the Russians are the culprit, not Zelensky.

Julie Mason: Now, this, I would imagine, this is a bit of a sensitive spot for Joe Biden as well.

Donald Jensen: It is, it is. Almost within minutes last week of the events in Kabul, the Russian propaganda machine started to crank out: "The U.S. will not come to your assistance." And of course, there's every indication that they will, but that was immediately a theme played on Russian media and even echoed of in some quarters in Kiev, that the U.S. is not reliable. However, the U.S. has been very reliable. And if anything, we may even see some greater commitments to military assistance coming out of this meeting.

Julie Mason: Zelensky, unhappy with the recent U.S.-German agreement on Nord Stream 2, what's Ukraine's involvement in that pipeline?

Donald Jensen: Well, Ukraine sees, as they should, the Nord Stream 2 as a threat, the completion of the pipeline, as a threat to their own energy security and as a threat to their revenue streams. As you probably noticed, Merkel was in Moscow over the weekend talking with Putin, her last trip. And so Ukraine is very, very nervous about it. Ukraine wishes that the pipeline had been stopped, but it's not. So Ukraine is trying to adjust and they not happy about what's going on.

Julie Mason: I wonder if Biden and Zelensky will do a little two and two presser at the White House.

Donald Jensen: That would be interesting. I don't recall offhand whether Zelensky speaks English but they very well may. We'll have to see.

Julie Mason: Can't wait. Thank you so much for joining me, Donald Jensen, director, Russia and strategic stability at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Have a great day, Donald. 

Donald Jensen: Thank you, Julie.
 

Related Publications

Angela Stent on the Terror Attack in Moscow

Angela Stent on the Terror Attack in Moscow

Monday, March 25, 2024

By: Angela Stent

While ISIS has claimed responsibility for the devastating terror attack in Moscow, Putin has baselessly tried to shift the blame to Ukraine, says USIP’s Angela Stent: “[Putin] wants to use this to increase repression at home … and also to pursue a more aggressive path in Ukraine.”

Type: Podcast

War and the Church in Ukraine

War and the Church in Ukraine

Thursday, March 14, 2024

By: Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.

Vladimir Putin’s war to reverse Ukraine’s independence includes religion. For centuries, the Russian Orthodox Church bolstered Moscow’s rule by wielding ecclesiastical authority over Ukrainian churches. Since early 2019, Ukraine has had a self-governing Orthodox Church of Ukraine. Russia’s invasion has sharpened tensions between it and the rival branch historically linked to Moscow. Any conciliation between them could shrink areas for conflict — and the Kremlin’s ability to stir chaos — in a postwar Ukraine. It would bolster Ukraine’s future stability and reinforce a decline in Russia’s historically massive influence across the Orthodox Christian world. But can Ukrainians make that happen?

Type: Analysis

Religion

Lauren Baillie on the ICC’s Latest Warrants for Russian War Crimes

Lauren Baillie on the ICC’s Latest Warrants for Russian War Crimes

Wednesday, March 13, 2024

By: Lauren Baillie

For the first time, the International Criminal Court has charged high-level Russian commanders with crimes against humanity — showing that Russia’s assault on civilians and civilian infrastructure in Ukraine is “not sporadic, it’s systematic, it’s purposeful, it’s part of a policy,” says USIP’s Lauren Baillie.

Type: Podcast

Ukraine War Takes a Toll on Russia

Ukraine War Takes a Toll on Russia

Monday, March 11, 2024

By: Mary Glantz, Ph.D.

Later this week, Russia will hold its presidential election, but no one is holding their breath about the outcome. Russia’s war in Ukraine has accelerated the process of ruthless consolidation of power in the Kremlin. Vladimir Putin’s regime, with a mixture of fear and confidence, is becoming more brazenly aggressive against any opposition ahead of the election, which will be held from March 15 to 17.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

View All Publications