The most consequential regional competition for influence in Afghanistan is the contest between India and Pakistan. Indian leaders strive to cultivate Afghanistan as a natural partner and reliable bulwark against Islamic militants, including Pakistan-backed groups, while Islamabad seeks to counter what it regards as an Indo-Afghan nexus to encircle and weaken Pakistan. This report examines the interests and strategies of both countries in Afghanistan within the context of peace negotiations and developments in Kashmir.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrives in Islamabad on June 27, 2019, for a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. (Press Information Department via AP)
Afghan President Ashraf Ghani arrives in Islamabad on June 27, 2019, for a meeting with Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan. (Press Information Department via AP)

Summary

  • India and Pakistan pursue mutually exclusive objectives in Afghanistan and leverage sharply different tools to achieve their respective goals. Pakistan utilizes militant groups, including the Afghan Taliban, as strategic proxies, while India places considerable weight on its soft power influence among Afghans.
  • India and Pakistan view the intentions and capabilities of each other through an adversarial lens. Pakistan, however, vastly misreads and exaggerates India’s activities in Afghanistan.
  • Pakistan is the regional actor with the most influence in Afghanistan owing to its patronage of a resilient Taliban insurgency, though the Pakistan-Taliban relationship is replete with tension. India believes supporting the existing Afghan system best serves its interests, a policy informed by the lack of plausible alternatives. New Delhi is unlikely to acquire, let alone deploy, the military power necessary to generate conditions favorable to Kabul.
  • Pakistan may decide to punish India in Afghanistan over India’s decision to mainstream the disputed territory of Kashmir. The incentives for Islamabad to intensify proxy warfare against India’s presence in Afghanistan would sharply increase should the United States decide to abruptly withdraw from Afghanistan without a broad-based intra-Afghan peace deal in place.
  • Confidence-building measures constructed around transparency and economic cooperation are not likely to improve India-Pakistan relations. Nevertheless, an inclusive Afghan settlement should at least reduce prospects for violence between India and Pakistan in Afghanistan, though means for Pakistan to conduct proxy violence against India are likely to persist.

About the Report

This report explores the dynamics underpinning the India-Pakistan rivalry in Afghanistan. The interests, fears, and strategies of New Delhi and Islamabad are situated within the context of the Afghan war, developments in Kashmir, terrorism, and proxy violence. The study was supported by the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace.

About the Author

Zachary Constantino is a senior U.S. government analyst with more than fifteen years of experience assessing political and security developments in Pakistan and Afghanistan. He has served as strategic adviser to the U.S. commander in Afghanistan and as senior adviser to the State Department’s special representative for Afghanistan and Pakistan. The views expressed here are his own and do not represent the views of either the U.S. government or USIP.

Related Publications

Afghanistan’s Two Years of Humanitarian Crisis Under the Taliban

Afghanistan’s Two Years of Humanitarian Crisis Under the Taliban

Tuesday, September 19, 2023

By: Dayne Curry;  Becky Roby;  Ellen Bevier;  Anastasia Moran

The Taliban’s takeover of Afghanistan in August 2021 immediately exacerbated the country’s precarious humanitarian situation, leaving millions in need of food assistance and other support. Two years later, the situation remains dire, with Afghan women and girls acutely affected by the Taliban’s draconian restrictions on their daily lives. The international community continues to struggle to find a balance between providing desperately needed aid while also pressuring the regime in Kabul to moderate its hardline policies. While Afghans need emergency assistance, the country will continue to deal with cycles of crises until its deep-seated economic challenges are addressed.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

GenderHuman Rights

Two Years of the Taliban’s ‘Gender Apartheid’ in Afghanistan

Two Years of the Taliban’s ‘Gender Apartheid’ in Afghanistan

Thursday, September 14, 2023

By: Belquis Ahmadi;  Scott Worden

Two years after the Taliban takeover of Afghanistan, the human rights situation in the country is abysmal, with women and girls experiencing the worst of the regime’s policies. There is growing evidence that the Taliban are committing the crime against humanity of gender persecution of women and girls, an assertion Human Rights Watch made in a new report. This summer, the World Economic Forum slated Afghanistan last of the 146 countries it ranked in a study on gender gaps. The scope of the Taliban’s women’s rights restrictions is truly unprecedented.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

GenderHuman Rights

The Latest @ USIP: Documenting the Taliban’s Assault on Human Rights

The Latest @ USIP: Documenting the Taliban’s Assault on Human Rights

Tuesday, August 22, 2023

By: Richard Bennett

Despite initial promises to the contrary, the Taliban have systematically stripped human rights protections from large swaths of the Afghan population — particularly women, minorities and children. With the gains of the last two decades nearly wiped out, accountability for human rights abuses will be a major factor in the international community’s policy toward the Taliban going forward. Richard Bennett, the U.N. special rapporteur for human rights in Afghanistan, explains why documentation is the first and most important step in upholding human rights; discusses various forms of accountability for human rights abuses; and offers ways that Afghan and international human rights advocates can contribute to this crucial work.

Type: Blog

GenderHuman Rights

Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?

Tuesday, August 15, 2023

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.

Two years into Taliban rule, the question of whether Afghanistan would once again become a safe haven for international terrorism remains alive. Longstanding fears were affirmed a little over a year ago, when the U.S. government located al-Qaeda leader Aimen al-Zawahiri in Kabul, Afghanistan, before killing him in a drone strike. The fact that the Taliban would bring Zawahiri back to Kabul, despite repeated assurances to U.S. negotiators both before and after the Doha agreement that they had distanced themselves from al-Qaeda, significantly elevated concerns.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Violent Extremism

View All Publications