Under Taliban rule, Afghanistan poses acute threats to U.S. security and regional stability as a home to a range of transnational terrorist groups. The Afghan people are also suffering from an acute humanitarian crisis and systematic abuses of women’s rights, including a ban on public education for girls above the sixth grade. This drives emigration from Afghanistan and harms the Afghan economy.

USIP advances U.S. interests in Afghanistan by reducing the risks of extremism and terrorism emanating from Afghanistan; promoting the safety and rights of Afghan women and children; and facilitating dialogue among regional actors and legitimate Afghan stakeholders to increase regional stability.

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Understanding the Implications of the Taliban’s Opium Ban in Afghanistan

Understanding the Implications of the Taliban’s Opium Ban in Afghanistan

Thursday, December 12, 2024

The Taliban’s opium ban, coupled with Afghan farmers’ replacement of poppy largely with low-value wheat, is likely to worsen dissatisfaction and political tensions. The Taliban’s persistence in enforcing the ban has been notable, especially in 2024. If the ban remains in place, it would demonstrate the regime’s strength but also worsen rural poverty, increase dissatisfaction among landholders and spur political instability. This will likely lead to increased humanitarian needs and more pressures for outmigration to nearby countries and beyond, both of which are of interest to the U.S. and other Western countries. Conversely, if the ban weakens in response to pressures and resistance, a revival of widespread poppy cultivation could undermine the regime’s authority. Aid alone will not offset the economic shock of the ban, nor stimulate the long-term growth needed to effectively combat the opium problem.

Type: Analysis

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