The Myanmar military has endured historic losses over the past three years, leaving it in the weakest state in its history. While there are few paths to recovery — and mounting challenges to its stranglehold on power — the military has managed to stay afloat so far in the face of an expanding revolution against its rule. What are the factors threatening its viability? And what is holding it together? While there is no single explanation, a critical factor is its culture of internal loyalty cultivated over decades of military rule.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia, hit with intense scrutiny and law enforcement action earlier this year, are moving into new areas and adapting their operations as they revive and expand global scam operations. In Myanmar — a key center of this internet-based criminal activity — extreme political instability combined with the connivance of the country’s military and its militias continue to provide fertile ground for crime groups, albeit in new configurations. At the same time, a sudden shift in China’s posture toward Myanmar’s military regime has eased pressure on the scam industry, allowing criminal networks to further scale up their malign activities.

Type: Analysis

Economics;  Global Policy;  Human Rights

Since early 2024, fighting in northern Rakhine state has led to the worst attacks on the Rohingya population since 2017, when Myanmar’s military drove more than 750,000 across the border into Bangladesh. The new attacks are a stark reminder of the Rohingyas’ vulnerability. The world has known about their plight for decades, and in 2024, only 636,000 Rohingya — or 23 percent of the 2.8 million Rohingya around the world — still live in their homeland, Myanmar.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Global Policy;  Human Rights

From their base in ungoverned stretches of Southeast Asia, international criminal networks are prowling the Internet, seeking to defraud victims around the world with sophisticated and psychologically devastating scams. Gangsters operating out of Myanmar, Cambodia and Laos, relying on forced labor, have spread their tentacles through Asia, Africa and Latin America and increasingly within the United States, stripping gullible prey of at least $64 billion annually. Clearly, to eradicate such a global menace will require a coordinated international response. Even so, the United States is not internally powerless to confront this striking example of how conflict and corrupt governance in distant parts of the world can directly threaten Americans’ security and well-being.

Type: Analysis

Economics;  Global Policy