Syrian Blast Robs Assad of Critical Allies
Yesterday's blast in Damascus killed Asef Shawkat, President Bashar al-Assad's brother-in-law and what The New York Times called a "top enforcer of his embattled government" who was seen as a strong loyalist to Assad personally. He was killed, along with Assad's defense minister and a former defense minister in what was thought to be a secure room in Damascus. "The attack dealt a grave blow to the leadership of the government's war machine and struck an even bigger psychological one to its ability to project a sense of power and cohesion," the NYT's David Kirkpatrick and Kareem Fahim wrote today.
The death of the three brings new momentum to opponents of the regime as they seek to loosen Assad's up-until-now tight grip on power and clearly shakes the confidence, not only of Assad, but of those around him, that this really could be the beginning of the end.
USIP's Steve Heydemann appeared on PBS's News Hour Wednesday night, saying there are a number of indicators in addition to the blast that show the situation in Syria has reached a tipping point. "I don't think the attack is the only indicator that tells us we have crossed that point," he told PBS's Judy Woodruff on Wednesday evening's show. "I think we see it in some other indicators as well." Heydemann cited rising violence and helicopter gunships hovering over center city. "And that tells denizens that the regime is now on the defensive."
USIP has been actively working with Syrian activists for the last six months on a comprehensive plan, a "Day After Project," that attempts to make the increasingly inevitable transition from the Assad regime to an interim government as smooth as possible. The plan covers six areas, security sector reform, rule of law, transitional justice, electoral system design, constitution making and economic and social reconstruction.
More from PBS's News Hour:
JUDY WOODRUFF: Steven Heydemann, what about that, the units that are immediately around the president and his very top people?
STEVEN HEYDEMANN: I think we have to be aware that if the regime feels that it's been backed into a corner, if some of its supporters who believe that they are in an existential – existential struggle for their survival, look at current trends and feel that they really have no choice but to mount increasingly aggressive, offensive actions against the uprising in an effort either to shift momentum or simply to save themselves, that this could be the start of a wave of aggression, a wave of attacks on the part of the regime, in which it's seeking to reassert its authority, reassert its ability to counteract this opposition.
And so I tend to agree that we could see some quite extraordinary violence in the days ahead.
Read the full transcript of the show.
More from the NYT:
"Bashar today can no longer trust almost anyone who is close to him, and that is going to send a shiver through his inner circle and their confidence," said Joshua Landis, a Syria scholar at the University of Oklahoma.
In a government that always entrusts top security posts to close relatives, the death of Mr. Shawkat was the most critical loss. He was the husband of Mr. Assad's only sister, a former spy chief and the deputy defense minister. After the deaths of two brothers, Mr. Assad has only one left — Maher al-Assad, the chief of the elite praetorian guards charged with protecting the family. His whereabouts on Wednesday were unknown.
With the ranks of his male siblings depleted, Mr. Assad relies on his cousins, like the business mogul Rami Makhlouf and his brother Hafez Makhlouf, a senior intelligence official, along with Dhu al-Hemma al-Shalish, the director of presidential security. Mr. Shalish, in particular, has risen in the thinning ranks of the Assad inner circle as the key financier and organizer of the paramilitary forces known as Shabiha.
Mr. Shalish and his immediate family "were looked at as lowlife no-goodniks a year ago, but today they have been catapulted into the ranks of the inner circle because they are willing to do the dirty work for the regime," Mr. Landis said. "There are only so many family members."
The bombing came days after high-level defections from Mr. Assad's government and open combat on the streets of the capital. "This is a real turning point,' said Paul Salem, director of the Carnegie Middle East Center in Beirut, noting that the collapse of the Assad government could be weeks away instead of the many months that had been the view among analysts. ‘It is a body blow, a failure on a massive scale. The regime is still there, but to say that it is staggering is an understatement."
