USIP's Army Fellow, Col. John Maraia discusses the impact of Osama bin Laden's death on al-Qaida and U.S. counter-terrorism activities.

May 2, 2011

USIP's Army Fellow, Col. John Maraia discusses the impact of Osama bin Laden's death on al-Qaida and U.S. counter-terrorism activities.

What impact will bin Laden’s death have on U.S. efforts to combat terrorism?

Osama bin Laden’s killing by U.S. forces is a significant symbolic victory in America’s ongoing counter-terrorism campaign.  As the leader of al-Qaida, bin Laden declared war on the United States in the 1990’s and was behind the attacks on the USS Cole, America’s embassies in Kenya and Tanzania, the World Trade Center and the Pentagon as well as the attacks in London, Madrid, Bali and beyond.  After 9/11, President George W. Bush declared that the U.S. would bring bin Laden to justice, dead or alive.  Yesterday, after years of painstaking intelligence work and military operations, U.S. forces under President Obama did exactly that.  Killing the acknowledged leader of al-Qaida is a critical step in this war of ideas and images; it clearly sends the message to bin Laden’s followers that America’s pursuit is relentless and that even hiding in a well-appointed compound in Abbottabad, Pakistan is no guarantee of safety.

The killing of bin Laden probably has a more important symbolic and informational effect than an actual impact on current operations.  However, removal of bin Laden should allow U.S. efforts to focus resources and time on those leaders with a more direct role in operational planning and execution.   

Back to top

What impact will this have on al-Qaida and Islamic extremism?

Operationally, I expect al-Qaida will want to mount an operation in the West fairly soon to demonstrate its resilience.  In my opinion, bin Laden had evolved from an operational leader into a symbolic one.  Al-Qaida and its affiliates appear to operate off of his intent rather than specific guidance.  He has put a movement in motion; it does not require his day to day input. 

Bin Laden’s death will obviously be a blow to their organization and they will need to replace his leadership.  I would expect al-Qaida to have planned for this possibility and that it would have a procedure in place for a subordinate to quickly assume the leadership role.  However, that may not be a smooth process and a new leader may not be as universally accepted within the ranks as bin Laden apparently was.  Any friction in the succession process will limit al-Qaida’s effectiveness and potentially expose them to counter-terrorism efforts.

Bin Laden’s death will impact Islamic extremism, but it won’t cause those who espouse extremism to suddenly change their minds.  Those who were committed to violence yesterday remain committed to violence today.

Back to top

What about the impact on U.S. and NATO efforts in Afghanistan?

While it is a morale booster for U.S. and NATO efforts in Afghanistan, I don’t think it will have a significant near-term impact.  From my vantage point, U.S. and NATO efforts appear to have been largely focused on securing the Afghan population and defeating the Taliban.  Bin Laden’s death probably won’t directly impact those efforts.  However, the symbolic and informational effect of yesterday’s operation may impact those Afghans who are otherwise inclined to support al-Qaida’s brand of extremism.  

Back to top

Related Publications

As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

At midnight on the night of February 24-25, 2021, India and Pakistan reinstated a cease-fire that covered their security forces operating “along the Line of Control (LOC) and all other sectors” in Kashmir, the disputed territory that has been at the center of the India-Pakistan conflict since 1947. While the third anniversary of that agreement is a notable landmark in the history of India-Pakistan cease-fires, the 2021 cease-fire is fragile and needs bolstering to be maintained.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.;  Tamanna Salikuddin

Days after Pakistan’s February 8 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s Elections

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s Elections

Monday, February 12, 2024

By: Tamanna Salikuddin

Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Type: Podcast

The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned

The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

The February 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir has—despite occasional violations—turned into one of the longest-lasting in the countries’ 75-year shared history. Yet, as Christopher Clary writes, the ceasefire remains vulnerable to shocks from terrorist attacks, changes in leadership, and shifting regional relations. With the ceasefire approaching its third anniversary, Clary’s report examines the factors that have allowed it to succeed, signs that it may be fraying, and steps that can be taken to sustain it.

Type: Special Report

Peace Processes

View All Publications