Ambassador William Taylor shares his review of the relationship between Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2010 and provides a glimpse into what we can expect from these two countries in 2011.
- Looking back at Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2010, what are the key issues that stand out from the year in terms of U.S. policy?
- What should we be looking to in 2011?
Looking back at Afghanistan and Pakistan in 2010, what are the key issues that stand out from the year in terms of U.S. policy?
The two standouts in U.S. policy are the relationships with the two governments. The relationship with the government of President Karzai went through ups and downs: tensions after the disputed presidential election and other official corruption lingered; good feelings from a successful Karzai visit to Washington in the spring improved the mood; questions about the durability of U.S. support generated by Bob Woodward’s book didn’t help; uncertainty about the meaning of the July 2011 date detracted from the U.S. effort; and the emergence of 2014 as the new target date for full hand-off of security to Afghan forces reassured the Afghans and worried their enemies. The relationship with the Pakistani government was strained over continued Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) support for insurgents killing Afghans, Americans and Indians.
What should we be looking to in 2011?
In 2011 we should watch these same two relationships. If U.S.-Afghan relations are going well - more consistency from the Americans, less corruption from the Afghans - we could see real progress toward stability in Afghanistan. If Afghans, Pakistanis and insurgents all come to believe that U.S. and coalition forces will be pressing the enemy for four more years as NATO leaders promised this fall, the game could change. Afghans could swing to turn their own army and ISAF forces away from the Taliban; confidence in the ability of Afghan security forces to control their territory could grow; Pakistanis could gain confidence that the U.S. would not abandon them again - like we did in 1989 - and begin to reign in the terrorist groups they have been supporting as a hedge; and the Taliban could lose support, recruits and the will to fight. But, none of this is guaranteed - it could go badly as well. It will be an interesting year.