In recent years, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have found it particularly challenging to interpret one another’s foreign policy signals. Misinterpretation of each other’s signaling may contribute to a bilateral action-reaction dynamic and can intensify into an action-reaction cycle and escalation spiral.

Type: Report

Last Friday, the foreign ministers of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) met in Washington to sign an agreement to end 30 years of conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes region. The peace deal was accompanied by commitments to build a “regional economic integration framework” and promises of U.S. investment in eastern DRC’s abundant critical mineral reserves, among other commercial agreements.

Type: Question and Answer

Israel’s stunning and sophisticated June 13 attack on Iran set off a worrying 12-day escalatory spiral. Iran responded in short order with ballistic missile and drone strikes, which led to a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the two sides. A cease-fire is now in place -- but will it hold?

Type: Analysis

The 2024 revelations over China’s effort to implant malware in critical U.S. infrastructure by the Volt Typhoon hacking group — as well as the Salt Typhoon group’s successful breaching of at least nine major U.S. telecoms — have renewed concern over Beijing’s constant, ongoing efforts to hack Western companies, governments and non-governmental organizations. Unlike past incidents, like those involving Chinese military unit 61398, which were largely about cyber espionage, the Volt Typhoon group was actively implanting malware designed to disrupt critical infrastructure such as water and power systems.

Type: Analysis