Nigeria currently faces a three-pronged crisis involving Muslim-Christian relations, the Niger Delta region, and presidential term limits. USIP brought together three professors to comment on the different aspects of the crises in Nigeria—this USIPeace Briefing is the convergence of their analyses.
Nigeria currently faces a three-pronged crisis involving Muslim-Christian relations, the Niger Delta region, and presidential term limits. The United States Institute of Peace (USIP) held a public workshop in March 2006 for the purpose of assessing the situation in Nigeria and considering ways in which the international community might respond.
Chaired by David Smock of USIP’s Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution, the workshop brought together experts to provide historical perspective and critical analysis. Olayiwola ‘Layi Abegunrin of Howard University spoke on "The Crisis in the Niger Delta of Nigeria," John Paden of George Mason University on "Term Limits, Democracy, and Violence in Nigeria," and Darren Kew of the University of Massachusetts in Boston on "Political Conflict and the 2007 Elections in Nigeria."
Although the three professors commented on different aspects of the situation in Nigeria, their analyses converged in several respects. This USIPeace Briefing reflects that convergence.
A Crisis in Three Dimensions
(1) In February 2006, Nigeria was the scene of violent confrontations between Muslim and Christian groups occasioned by the publishing, initially in Denmark, of caricatures of the prophet Muhammad. In countries of Europe and the Middle East, the "cartoon controversy" set off protests directed primarily at secular, western institutions and attitudes considered hostile to Islam. In Nigeria, however, the outbreak of violence had a decidedly inter-religious dimension.
(2) Also in February, Nigeria’s oil-rich Niger Delta saw attacks by militants against oil installations and the kidnapping of three Americans, two Egyptians, two Thais, one Filipino and one Briton (who has been since released). Claiming responsibility for these and other actions is the Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta (MEND). The group claimed to be reacting not only to Nigerian military attacks on the predominantly Ijaw communities in the area but to a long history of exclusion from the developmental benefits of oil revenue.
(3) The run-up to Nigeria’s presidential elections in 2007 adds fuel to an already volatile situation. The president, Olusegun Obasanjo, a Christian from the south who came to power through democratic elections in 1999, has indicated that he might seek a revision to the country’s constitution to permit a third term in office. Opponents charge that this would contradict the rule of law and undermine Nigerian democracy. This issue is bearing on relations between Christian and Muslims as well as on the conflict in the Niger Delta.
The Clash of Cultures: Muslim-Christian Violence
Violence between Muslims and Christians in Nigeria has claimed thousands of lives in the past decade. It flared again in February 2006 when Muslim outrage at the caricatures of the prophet Muhammad led to a massacre of dozens of Christians in the north, followed by reprisal killings of Muslims by Christians in the south. More than 150 people were killed and numerous churches and mosques were destroyed.
These most recent outbreaks of sectarian conflict in Nigeria need to be seen in the context of a long and complex history in which religious loyalties are invariably mixed with issues of ethnic identity, land ownership and political and economic power. After a century of growing Muslim influence in the north, the civilian government that came to power in 1999 accepted the introduction of sharia law into twelve northern states. This set off conflicts with Christian groups that claimed that such laws put them at a disadvantage and violated the Nigerian Constitution, which calls for a secular state and freedom of religion. By some accounts, more than 10,000 people have been killed in sectarian conflicts, primarily in Kaduna and Plateau states in the last seven years.
As is the case in most "religious" conflicts, however, economic, political, and social forces play a significant role. Religion, as several participants of the workshop indicated, often serves to provide an ultimate justification for a particular political or ideological position or for a worldview that encompasses other dimensions of life. This is certainly the case with respect to religious strife in Nigeria.
It is also worthy of note that programs that have brought Muslim and Christian groups together to create mutual understanding and respect, such as that of the Interfaith Mediation Centre of the Muslim-Christian Dialogue Forum in Kaduna, were instrumental in helping to maintain calm in regions of their operation during the most recent period of violence.
Threats to the Rule of Law: the Third Term
Sectarian tensions have been exacerbated by the decision of President Olesegun Obasanjo, a Christian from the south, to consider altering the country’s constitution to allow a third term in office. This is seen by many not only as a violation of democratic process but as an abrogation of the tacit agreement to allow rotation of the office of the president between Muslims and Christians. As Paden described it, "With the transition from military to civilian rule in 1999, northerners were key in voluntarily shifting power to the southwest (and Obasanjo). But there was an understanding on their part—the so-called ’gentlemen’s agreement’—that there would be a shift back to the north after this power shift. Clearly, the advantage of political incumbency is overwhelming in an oil-driven state, with central control over budgetary resources, plus all police and military. Those who feel shut out of the political process may become desperate."
The decision of the president not to rule out a third term has created a dilemma for countries like the United States that are supportive of the role the Nigerian president has played in Africa and reluctant to oppose Obasanjo because they are increasingly dependent on Nigerian oil. According to Paden, "Clearly, President Obasanjo is one of the leading statesmen in Africa. As recent chairman of the African Union (AU), he has been a key figure in conflict resolution and mediation throughout the continent, including in Darfur and Cote d'Ivoire. With Nelson Mandela making his exit from the stage, many in the United States and the international community have come to regard Obasanjo as an indispensable leader in anything Africa-related."
The United States has already reacted negatively to the third term issue. Director of National Intelligence John Negroponte testified before Congress in February 2006 that a decision by the Nigerian president to exceed the two-term limit would "unleash major turmoil and conflict" and create "instability elsewhere in West Africa."
The Center of the Storm: the Niger Delta
Addressing the root causes of the present crisis in the Niger Delta, Abegunrin reviewed the history of the Delta region, from the time of the slave trade in the 19th century, through the British colonial policy of divide and rule, to the discovery of oil in the Delta in 1956. The years since, according to Abegunrin, have been characterized by the destruction of farmlands, uncontrolled logging, pollution of the environment, and the displacement of entire communities. The Niger Delta has yielded immense wealth for elites—and poverty, disease, and unemployment for the majority of Nigerians.
Resistance movements in the Delta started with the Ijaw leader Isaac Buro in the 1960s, and continued with the explosive confrontation between the government and Ijaw groups around the city of Warri in 1997. The present rebellion in 2006, with its kidnappings, oil theft (bunkering) and destruction of oil pipelines, has been accompanied by demands for more economic development in the region. The Nigerian president, claims Abegunrin, should "allow democracy to flourish in order to avert a major conflict that could lead to the break up of Nigeria." 1
Heading into the Perfect Storm?
Nigeria is frequently held up as a positive example of the rising tide of democracy on the African continent. Indeed, in the face of the burden of colonialism combined with the formidable challenge of simply holding together a population of 130 million divided into more than 250 ethnic groups, it has made significant strides toward building a more representative political system. Yet the structure remains fragile and there are signs that the fabric of democracy in Africa’s most populous nation might be unraveling.
One reason Nigeria may be breaking up is that it concentrates too much power at the center. According to Kew, "Thirty years of military rule promoted political and economic centralization. This left overwhelming political power in the hands of the presidency and the executive branch, which also dominates the all-important oil industry." It is this centralization of political, economic, military, and police power in the hands of an enormously wealthy elite, combined with a neglect of development for the masses of Nigerians, that has produced the explosive situation that exists today.
How the Nigerian government handles the sectarian and ethnic violence, the disruptive activities of well-armed resistance movements in the Niger Delta, and the possible third-term bid by the president will have far-reaching implications for Nigeria and for all of Africa. The convergence of these volatile currents at this time has led Paden to ask whether the country might not be heading into "the perfect storm."
Conclusions
Recognizing the fact that Nigerians themselves will ultimately decide the country’s future, participants in the workshop nevertheless suggested several ways in which the international community might play a helpful role:
Third-term Agenda
(1) Given that democracy and peace in Nigeria can only be maintained through the rule of law based on adherence to the constitution, the international community should express opposition to any amendment of the constitution that would affect the terms of office of incumbents.
(2) While acknowledging respect for the Nigerian president, the international community should stress that Obasanjo’s stature at home and abroad, as well as his legacy, would be adversely affected by any action designed to ensure a third term in office.
Democracy
(3) The international community should support efforts to guarantee freedom of expression for political opposition movements, ensure free and fair elections, and encourage conflict resolution without resort to violence.
(4) Because of the important role played by the group of men ("grandfathers" or "Big Men") who have held key positions in government and who occupy positions of considerable wealth and power in Nigerian society, the international community should secure their influence in strengthening democracy and resolving conflict.
(5) The international community should lend support to the idea, voiced by some African leaders, that a "council of elders" be created to allow the stature and influence of respected former leaders to serve the cause of democracy after their terms have expired.
Development
(6) The international community should support the implementation of the program of development in the Niger Delta (Niger Delta Development Commission) as well as its peace and security strategy.
Conflict Resolution
(7) The international community should offer to provide training in conflict-resolution for politicians at the state and local level. Recognizing Nigerian culture is profoundly spiritual and that over 90 percent of the population is either Christian or Muslim, religious groups should be encouraged and supported in their work of peace education and conflict resolution.
Notes
1. In recent years the government has sought to address the causative factors of instability and violence in the Niger Delta through the Niger Development Commission (NDDC) that was created in 2000, followed by the Niger Delta Master Plan and the Niger Delta Peace and Security Strategy. For an analysis of the complex factors that play into the escalating violence (including corruption, money laundering, the availability of weapons), as well as the government’s efforts to respond, see USIPeace Briefing, "Strategies for Peace in the Niger Delta," by Dorina Bekoe.
This USIPeace Briefing was written by Paul Wee, program officer in the Religion and Peacemaking program at the United States Institute of Peace. The views expressed here are not necessarily those of USIP, which does not advocate specific policies.
The United States Institute of Peace is an independent, nonpartisan institution established and funded by Congress. Its goals are to help prevent and resolve violent international conflicts, promote post-conflict stability and development, and increase conflict management capacity, tools, and intellectual capital worldwide. The Institute does this by empowering others with knowledge, skills, and resources, as well as by directly engaging in peacebuilding efforts around the globe.