Lebanon’s parliament failed to elect a successor within the constitutional timeframe before President Michel Suleiman’s term expired on May 25. Elie Abouaoun, the director of Middle East programs for the U.S. Institute of Peace, explains the dynamics feeding the divisions, the ramifications of the vacancy and possible solutions.

20140529-Refugee-Camp-Lebanon-Syrian-border-Wiki-QA.jpg
Photo credit: Elgaard

Lebanon’s internal political and sectarian divisions have deepened precipitously since the outbreak of civil war in neighboring Syria, as refugees from that fighting fled across the border and Lebanese factions took sides in the neighboring conflict. The Lebanese Shia militant group Hezbollah intervened to support Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, while Sunni groups sided with the rebels in Syria.

A group of international officials on May 26 called for an end to the power vacuum by electing a new President and for Lebanon’s leaders to ensure the government of Prime Minister Tammam Salam has the authority to deal with economic, security and humanitarian issues in the meantime.

Has this happened before?

This constitutional milestone is known to polarize political leaders in and around Lebanon and often even international players. So this is not the first time the Lebanese presidential election has created a deadlock. In 12 similar presidential-succession crises since Lebanon became an independent country in 1943, electing a new president proved to be difficult and led to half-baked imposed solutions.

How does a vacancy in the presidency affect the fragile stability in Lebanon?

Because this has happened before and because most regional and international leaders wouldn’t benefit from major upheaval in Lebanon, this latest occurrence isn’t likely to cause a deterioration that would lead to civil war. Even for the most militarized party in Lebanon, Hezbollah, an internal conflict in Lebanon would only divert the group’s resources from the main battle it is leading in support of Bashar Al-Assad’s regime in neighboring Syria and from its overall mandate of fighting Israel. The only game changer for Hezbollah would be if it identifies an internal threat to its existence or operations. Other parties in Lebanon are far from posing such a threat at this stage.

However, the partial paralysis at the legislative and executive levels now could trigger other crises as the existing economic, social and humanitarian (Syrian refugees) challenges worsen. 

Why is electing a President so complicated in a nation known to have adopted rather democratic practices compared to the largely authoritarian neighboring countries?

The Presidential election crisis is a symptom of a larger and deep-rooted problem: the formal Lebanese political system is not properly structured for a country of 18 different religious groups and intense identity-based politics. Despite constitutional changes introduced in 1926, 1943 and 1989, the system is largely based on majority rule. But in practice, different parties with different interpretations of legislation can block measures in efforts to strengthen their grip on the power structures. That results in political deadlocks that usually are resolved only through settlements brokered by regional or international powers.  

So, the most urgent need for Lebanon now is structural reforms to the political system. Political and civil society leaders should admit that a majority cannot govern Lebanon today with its demographic, social and political diversity.  Instead, the constitution should reflect the customary practice used since 1943 and formalize a system based on consensus that would also spell out interim arrangements. Crises might still occur, but their length and intensity might be eased.  While the easiest solution would be another quick fix, that would only have a palliative effect until the next crisis erupts.

How do you envisage a new President will be elected?

It is hard to predict. The fate of the Presidency depends on the outcome of the potential talks between Iran and Saudi Arabia. If these discussions do not result in political arrangements (assuming Lebanon is even on the agenda, which is still uncertain), it is likely that another regional mediation will be initiated for Lebanon. Regional intervention in the Lebanese parliament’s selection of a president has always been and will still be a determining factor if the whole Lebanese political system is not revisited.

Are there any top candidates for President and what kind of influence do they have?

None of the top four Christian political figures who have significant constituencies seem likely to win, at least in part because none of them is accepted by both sides on Lebanon’s pro-Iran and pro-Saudi divide. The most likely scenario is that prospective mediators will look for a “compromise” (second-tier) candidate agreed by both Saudis and Iranians. Unfortunately, this means that the next president will have little margin to exercise real authority.

Elie Abouaoun is USIP’s director of Middle East Programs.


Related Research & Analysis

The Current Situation: Israel, The Palestinian Territories, Egypt and the Levant

The Current Situation: Israel, The Palestinian Territories, Egypt and the Levant

Monday, February 10, 2025

For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and its broader regional reverberations — has shaped Middle East politics and impacted U.S. interests in the region. Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military response in Gaza and the implications for neighboring Jordan and Egypt — as well as seismic ripples in Lebanon and Syria — have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s and the region’s trajectory.

Type: Fact Sheet

What Assad’s Fall Means for Lebanon

What Assad’s Fall Means for Lebanon

Thursday, December 12, 2024

The fall of Assad’s Baathist regime was met with widespread jubilation among Lebanon's various communities, especially its Sunni, Christian and Druze, but trepidation among many Shias, whose political leadership relied on Baathist cover and support. Baathist Syria had played a major role in Lebanon, intervening in the country's civil war, occupying the country in the post-war period, and manipulating Lebanon's political landscape to benefit its political and economic interests. Though it was ousted from the country in 2005 following a mass uprising that blamed Damascus for the assassination of former Prime Minister Rafik al-Hariri, the Syrian regime continued to maintain influence in the country through its allies and supporters.

Type: Analysis

Can the Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Cease-fire Hold?

Can the Fragile Israel-Hezbollah Cease-fire Hold?

Tuesday, December 3, 2024

On November 26, Israel and Lebanon agreed to a cease-fire to be implemented in phases over 60 days. If it holds, the deal will end over a year of the heaviest fighting in decades between the two sides. Formally a deal between Israel and Lebanon, the agreement is effectively between the former and Hezbollah. The next two months will serve as a crucial test for the possibility of a sustained truce and a more durable and comprehensive resolution of disputed border areas between the two countries.

Type: Question and Answer

The Middle East on Fire

The Middle East on Fire

Thursday, October 3, 2024

Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1 have raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. The deepening spiral of bloodshed began on September 17 and 18 with the detonation across Lebanon of thousands of pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah operatives — one analyst deemed the unprecedented Israeli operation “the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” Ongoing airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have marked the most significant Israeli barrage in 11 months of tit-for-tat escalation. On September 27, Israel dealt Hezbollah a devastating blow by killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on a Beirut suburb. Despite reeling from these latest reverses and the evisceration of its command structure, the Shiite militia continues to lob missiles at Israel. Stunned and outraged, Iran — Hezbollah’s patron — fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel; at least one person was killed in the West Bank. Iranians are now bracing for Israeli retaliation. The cycle of violence, it appears, is far from over.

Type: Analysis

View All Research & Analysis