KEY TAKEAWAYS
KEY TAKEAWAYS
The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has catalyzed a profound shift in global power dynamics: the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia. This relationship, while rooted in history, represents a significant departure from previous patterns of cooperation. China-Russia ties have evolved from a transactional relationship of convenience to a more durable strategic alignment, while continuing to fall short of a full-blown military alliance. This development challenges traditional Western assumptions about the limits of authoritarian cooperation and may signal the emergence of a new model of international partnership.
China’s assistance to Russia has arguably prolonged the war, awakened NATO and the EU to the dangers of the China-Russia axis, and forced Brussels and other capitals to take stronger measures against Beijing and Moscow than anyone could have anticipated. The cooperation between China and Russia, as well as North Korea and Iran, has deepened in ways that few would have thought possible before Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The Russia-China energy dyad has become the backbone of their economic cooperation, reshaping global energy markets. Russia has emerged as China's primary energy supplier, with daily petroleum shipments reaching record levels. This arrangement has proven mutually beneficial with China securing discounted energy resources while Russia maintains critical export revenues despite Western sanctions. The search to develop new pipeline infrastructure, particularly the Power of Siberia 2 project, indicates a strategic commitment to this energy partnership. However, this relationship is unbalanced and favors China, which is now positioned as Russia's primary long-term energy market on favorable terms and plum pricing.
Additonally, the development of alternative financial mechanisms has advanced dramatically since the conflict began. The shift to yuan-ruble settlements is more than just a technical change in trading arrangements; it signals a concrete step toward creating a parallel financial system less vulnerable to Western sanctions. Chinese banks have simultaneously developed sophisticated methods to continue financing trade while avoiding secondary sanctions, creating a tiered system where smaller institutions handle higher-risk transactions and major state banks maintain plausible deniability. However, this financial integration remains constrained — so far — by China's capital controls and the limited international convertibility of the yuan.
The transformation of bilateral trade extends far beyond energy markets. Chinese companies have systematically replaced Western firms in the Russian market, often acquiring assets at significant discounts and establishing dominant positions in previously competitive sectors. This process has accelerated technology transfer, particularly in sectors with dual-use potential. However, this trade relationship is increasingly asymmetric, with Russia becoming more dependent on Chinese imports while China diversifies its export markets. Chinese companies have shown remarkable adaptability in navigating sanctions regimes, often establishing complex networks of intermediaries to maintain trade flows while minimizing exposure to Western penalties.
China's diplomatic strategy regarding Ukraine demonstrates multi-level engagement. While maintaining formal neutrality through its peace plan and public statements, China has consistently provided diplomatic cover for Russia in international forums and de facto support of Russia. This approach allows China to position itself as a potential mediator while effectively supporting Russian interests. The careful choreography of high-level meetings between Chinese leader Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin reflects this balance, demonstrating partnership while avoiding actions that might trigger Western response. This diplomatic dance has been particularly effective in the Global South, where many countries share China's skepticism of Western-dominated international institutions.
Both countries have worked to develop alternative international institutions and norms, challenging Western concepts of global governance.
The strategic dimension of Sino-Russian cooperation extends beyond immediate conflict-related issues. Both countries have worked to develop alternative international institutions and norms, challenging Western concepts of global governance. This includes strengthening organizations like the Shanghai Cooperation Organization and BRICS, while promoting alternative development models through initiatives like the Belt and Road. However, this partnership reveals inherent tensions, as China's global ambitions sometimes conflict with Russia's regional priorities, particularly in Central Asia and the Arctic.
The military dimension of Sino-Russian cooperation in Ukraine reveals careful calibration by both parties. While avoiding direct weapons sales publicly, China has expanded exports of dual-use technologies through sophisticated networks of intermediaries. This includes commercial drones later modified for military use, microelectronics and navigation systems. Chinese companies have developed elaborate re-export schemes via third countries to bypass export controls on sensitive technologies. Satellite navigation cooperation has grown increasingly significant, with China's BeiDou system providing Russia alternatives to GPS. This technical cooperation extends to cyber domains, though both countries maintain plausible deniability about such activities.
Sino-Russian information cooperation represents an unprecedented level of coordination in the global information space. This partnership has evolved beyond simple message alignment into a sophisticated, multi-layered system that fundamentally challenges Western information dominance. The integration of traditional media, digital platforms and influence operations has created a powerful alternative information ecosystem that shapes global narratives and public opinion.
State media entities from both nations have developed intricate content-sharing arrangements that transcend simple republishing. Organizations like RT (formerly Russia Today), Sputnik, China Global Television Network (CGTN) and Xinhua operate in a carefully orchestrated manner, creating complementary narratives that reinforce each other while maintaining distinct national characteristics. Chinese media provides economic and technological context to Russian geopolitical positions, while Russian media amplifies Chinese diplomatic stances with historical and cultural perspectives. This coordination extends to joint media projects, shared correspondent networks and synchronized broadcasting schedules, creating a continuous, mutually reinforcing information environment across multiple languages and platforms.
The partnership has developed sophisticated digital ecosystems that reduce dependence on Western platforms while enhancing information control capabilities. Their alternative social media platforms create spaces where approved narratives can circulate without Western content moderation. Chinese expertise in platform development and content management has significantly enhanced Russian capabilities, particularly in the deployment of advanced algorithms that promote approved content while limiting opposing viewpoints regarding the invasion of Ukraine. The joint development of big data and AI applications for monitoring public opinion enables rapid adjustment of messaging strategies through sophisticated sentiment analysis and predictive modeling.
The technological backbone supporting these operations represents a significant advancement in information warfare capabilities. Their content delivery networks resist Western interference while maintaining high reliability across multiple platforms and languages. Chinese expertise in content filtering and user monitoring has enhanced Russian capabilities in narrative management and audience targeting. The partnership continues to innovate in AI applications for content creation and distribution, developing increasingly sophisticated tools for audience engagement and message optimization.
Their approach to countering Western messaging demonstrates significant sophistication. Rapid response capabilities allow quick neutralization of Western narratives, and especially Ukrainian, through pre-emptive deployment of alternative explanations operations. The narrative over Ukraine and the link to the “aggressive” expansion of NATO as a reason of the war in Ukraine is one example. Offensive operations exploit Western social divisions and media vulnerabilities through coordinated amplification and strategic deployment of competing narratives. This asymmetric approach has proven particularly effective in developing nations where Western media dominance was historically unchallenged.
The partnership's information operations have achieved remarkable success in expanding their global influence. Their reach extends increasingly into developing nations, fostering growing skepticism toward Western narratives while building loyal global audiences. The resilience of their messaging strategy, demonstrated by consistent narrative maintenance despite Western counter-efforts, suggests sophisticated understanding of modern information warfare principles. Their success in creating alternative information ecosystems challenges fundamental assumptions about Western media dominance and information control.
The partnership demonstrates sophisticated understanding of narrative construction and audience psychology. Their primary narratives focus on Western decline, the superiority of alternative governance models, historical grievance and victimization, economic development without political liberalization, cultural sovereignty and in the case of Ukraine the pressure from NATO that forced Russia to defend itself. These narratives are carefully calibrated for different audiences, from domestic populations to diaspora communities and Global South audiences. The messaging strategy shows remarkable adaptability, adjusting tone and content while maintaining consistent underlying themes.
The partnership continues to evolve beyond the war in Ukraine, focusing on technological innovation and strategic adaptation. Advanced AI applications for content creation and distribution, enhanced capabilities for audience targeting, and development of new platforms suggest ongoing commitment to information warfare superiority. Their strategic adaptation includes continuous refinement of narrative frameworks and enhancement of counter-Western capabilities, indicating long-term investment in information operations as a key component of their global strategy.
The sophistication and effectiveness of Sino-Russian information operations suggest the need for fundamental reassessment of Western approaches to information warfare and public diplomacy.
The sophistication and effectiveness of Sino-Russian information operations suggest the need for fundamental reassessment of Western approaches to information warfare and public diplomacy. Their success in creating alternative narrative frameworks and information ecosystems represents a significant challenge to Western information dominance and requires new analytical frameworks and response strategies.
The deepening Sino-Russian cooperation forged by the war in Ukraine represents a fundamental challenge to the post-Cold War international order, and the democratic response against this development. Their partnership demonstrates the viability of different models of international cooperation by non-democratic states outside Western frameworks. This has particular resonance in developing nations seeking alternative models. The emergence of this authoritarian axis has accelerated the transition from a unipolar to a multipolar world, though the ultimate shape of this new order remains uncertain. China-Russia cooperation provides a template for other nations seeking to resist Western pressure, potentially leading to the formation of new international alignments and coalitions, based on anti-Western sentiments and lead by Chinas economic strength.
The economic ramifications of the partnership between China and Russia extends far beyond bilateral trade. Their cooperation has accelerated the development of alternative financial systems, challenging dollar dominance and Western control of global financial infrastructure. New payment systems, trade routes and financial instruments are emerging, creating parallel economic structures less vulnerable to Western sanctions. This has particular significance for developing nations seeking to reduce their dependence on Western-dominated financial systems. However, these developments also reveal the limitations of such alternatives, particularly given China's continued deep integration with Western economies.
The security dimension of Sino-Russian cooperation presents both immediate and long-term challenges to Western strategic planning. Their military cooperation, while limited, demonstrates the potential for deeper alignment in response to Western pressure. This has implications for NATO strategy, arms control regimes and regional security arrangements across multiple theaters. The combination of Russian military experience and Chinese technological capabilities creates potential synergies that could significantly impact future military developments. However, their cooperation also reveals inherent limitations, particularly given China's reluctance to risk its broader economic interests for Russian military objectives.
The future development of Sino-Russian cooperation will likely be shaped by several key factors. Economic complementarity will continue driving closer integration, though potentially at the cost of increasing Russian dependence on China. Technological cooperation may deepen, particularly in strategic sectors like artificial intelligence and space exploration. That said, potential friction points exist, particularly regarding their respective spheres of influence in Central Asia and the Arctic. The sustainability of their partnership may ultimately depend on their ability to manage these competing interests while maintaining sufficient unity against perceived Western pressure.
The evolution of this partnership necessitates a fundamental reassessment of Western policy approaches. Traditional strategies based on sanctions and diplomatic isolation may become less effective as alternative economic and political structures emerge. This suggests the need for more nuanced approaches that recognize the limitations of Western leverage while identifying potential pressure points within the Sino-Russian relationship. Particular attention should be paid to areas where Chinese and Russian interests diverge, as well as to the concerns of nations caught between these competing power centers.
The Sino-Russian partnership represents a significant challenge to Western interests while demonstrating both the potential and limitations of authoritarian cooperation. Their ability to sustain and deepen this relationship despite Western pressure suggests the need for new analytical frameworks and policy approaches. However, inherent tensions within their partnership, particularly regarding their relative power and competing regional interests, create potential vulnerabilities that more sophisticated Western policies might exploit. The long-term success of cooperation between China and Russia will likely depend on their ability to manage these internal contradictions while maintaining sufficient unity against external pressure.
The development of this partnership carries profound implications for the future of global order, suggesting the need for continued research into its evolving dynamics and potential trajectories. Policy responses will require careful calibration to address the challenges this partnership presents while avoiding actions that might inadvertently strengthen it further.
Niklas Swanström is the director of the Institute for Security and Development Policy based in Stockholm, Sweden.