U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Steve Scully: Mona Yacoubian is vice president of Middle East and North Africa Center at USIP, the U.S. Institute of Peace, joining us from Qatar. Mona, thank you so much for being with us. So much to talk about. We appreciate it.

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, thanks for having me, Steve. Indeed, it is a momentous time.

Steve Scully: So first of all, from your vantage point in Doha, what are you seeing and hearing?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, I think a region that's reeling with the developments that have taken place at a lightning pace in Syria. I think the region, the Gulf in particular, where I am, governments are really trying to absorb the enormity of what's transpired in Syria and starting to work through the calculus, you know, of what it means, this kind of very significant regional realignment, which may well be in the offing, as Assad is now often in Moscow. And we have this, you know, Islamist armed faction that has now taken control in Damascus.

Steve Scully: So let's break this down on a couple of different levels. Let's first talk about these rebel forces, which moving through, really, at lightning speed over what 10, 11, days. Were you surprised by the sudden collapse after years of the Assad regime?

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, absolutely. And I think anyone who told you they weren't, I'm not sure how forthcoming they would be. It's just stunning. Hard to absorb that these rebel groups accomplished, yeah as you say, in, you know, little less than 14 days what a 14-year war endured in Syria. So yes, it's quite something.

Steve Scully: You know, I recall many years ago when I did a lengthy interview about President Assad, I recall that his mother, who has since passed away, the wife of, obviously, the father who led the Syrian regime, was very critical initially of her son, saying, "You got to be tough. You got to go after these critics. You got to kill them if necessary." I'm paraphrasing, but my point is, it was a family affair, the father, the mother and now the son.

Mona Yacoubian: Oh, absolutely. Syria has been in the grips of the Assad family for more than 50 years. And what's interesting about Bashar, the leader that was just deposed, he became president of Syria quite by accident. It was his older brother who was to succeed his father, and he died in a car accident. And Bashar was always considered soft and sort of weak. And of course, we've seen now his brutality has far, far surpassed that of his father.

Steve Scully: So Mona, what happens next with him and his family? Because he's married with a couple of boys himself.

Mona Yacoubian: Well, I mean, he's in Moscow. It'll be interesting to see what happens. I don't see him going anywhere. I mean, this is a man clearly marked. There's so much anger against Assad for the enormous pain and suffering that he has caused the Syrian people. I mean, this is a country, Steve, that's devastated, fragmented with an enormous and widespread devastation and destruction. It's going to take years and billions if not trillions of dollars to rebuild the country.

Steve Scully: Who comes to the rescue of Syria and what is the role of the United States? Because, as I mentioned at the top of the program, Donald Trump coming in as the 47th president, saying Syria is not part of the U.S. fight, but Tom Friedman and others saying, "No, no, no, Syria is a key cornerstone when it comes to the Middle East."

Mona Yacoubian: Well, Syria is at the heart of the Middle East, and the geo-strategic stakes with Syria couldn't be higher. But who comes to the rescue? Who pays these reconstruction costs? Who rebuilds Syria? That's a very important question. And, you know, not clear. It's certainly not going to be the United States or even the West. You know, I think the Gulf countries probably are best poised to at least catalyze those efforts. But again, this is going to be a long-term process, Steve.

Steve Scully: We are talking to Mona Yacoubian. She is joining us from Qatar. She's with the U.S. Institute of Peace. Let's talk about how the Assad family rose to power 50-plus years ago. Give us some history on the father.

Mona Yacoubian: Well, this is a country that, prior to the father, was mired in back-to-back-to-back coups. And the father comes, the family comes from a minority Alawite regime. This is a Shiite offshoot. Syria is a Sunni majority country. He rose through the ranks of the military, and himself was able to, in a coup, depose the previous military leader, cement and consolidate his control. Hafez al-Assad Bashar's father was known for his brutality. He undertook a brutal massacre of oppositionists in the Syrian city of Hama in 1982, an episode that Tom Friedman famously called "Hama Rules," which underscores the brutal, authoritarian practices that have come to characterize life in Syria.

Steve Scully: And you talk about life in Syria, it's also among the world's largest refugee crises because an estimated 6 million people have been displaced because of the civil war, which has lasted now 13 years. Mona, I want to share with you just this part of today's Washington Post op-ed "The Road from Damascus," concluding with the following quote: "The Middle East badly needs a success story, a democratic Arab country committed to upholding human rights," adding, "With engaged diplomacy, the United States can help write a brighter next chapter for this strategically located and long suffering country." But we now have an administration coming in, Donald Trump, at least on Truth Social and saying, "We don't have a fight in Syria." What are your concerns and what's your recommendation to diplomats for the incoming administration taking office in January?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, look, I think it's important that the process in Syria be Syrian-led, and Syrian-owned. So I actually don't see a role for the United States in Syria's internal affairs. But, I think this point that Syria lies at the heart of the Middle East is critical, and the U.S. cannot afford to turn its back from Syria or the region more broadly. We're seeing just how interconnected the world is, and so I think it's going to be incumbent on diplomats to have their fingers on the pulse of the developments that we're seeing move at such a fast pace in the region, and, yeah, to find and see where are the opportunities to help catalyze positive change and to put the region, frankly, on a trajectory toward peace and stability, which is something that's going to benefit not just the Middle East, but I think is something that will benefit global peace and stability more broadly.

Steve Scully: So where does this put Israel as the airstrikes continue by the Israeli military inside Syria going after some of those ISIS targets?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, Israel is, I think, quite concerned. The targets that they've been hitting are more... There are concerns about the potential chemical weapons storage that still may be in Damascus. We're also seeing Israel move into the buffer zone inside the Golan Heights, inside Syria. So I think we're seeing Israel really adopt a very conservative security posture. I think they're understandably concerned about potential instability and spillover from Syria further destabilizing Israel, which of course, is in the midst of its own very significant conflict in Gaza.

Steve Scully: And so with Assad fleeing yesterday, he did so rather quietly to be quite honest. What happens next in terms of the transition in government? Who is running Syria, and what are the role of the rebels?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, that's the 64 million dollar question. I mean, they've appointed now a transitional prime minister, but I think these will be the key questions, Steve in the coming weeks and months, is: How does Syria embark on an inclusive and transparent political process that ensures the participation of all Syrians? Will there be a national dialogue? How to restart, frankly, the political transition process in Syria that’s never really gotten off the ground. That's going to be the key question to watch in the coming weeks.

Steve Scully: And Mona, do you know who was behind this? Which organizations, which leaders that really propelled the rebels to do what they did over 10 days?

Mona Yacoubian: Well, again, I think the key group is Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which is a former al-Qaeda affiliate. They have renounced their ties to al-Qaeda. This is a group that was in control of Idlib, which is a governorate in Syria that never went back over into government control. And it seems as though, over many months, if not years, HTS, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, as it's called, has been training, has been preparing, has been bringing more discipline and cohesion to its forces. And look, we've seen Assad, weakened by a distracted Russia in Ukraine, by a vastly weakened Iran as a result of Israel's strikes. And I think they found the opportunity and took it. And I think the other thing we've learned is just how hollowed out the Syrian government and Syrian armed forces were. The forces essentially melted away. They did not even fight. They took off their uniforms and fled.

Steve Scully: Just an incredible moment in the Middle East. And of course, coming at a time of a transition here in this country between the Biden and the Trump administration, the situation between Israel and the Gaza Strip, and, of course, Hezbollah and Lebanon, so so many fast-moving developments. Mona, final question, if you were to write a headline on what has transpired over the last 24 to 48 hours, what would it be?

Mona Yacoubian: I mean, earthquake moment in Syria, tremendous opportunity together with potentially tremendous risk.

Steve Scully: Very well done. Joining us from Qatar. Mona Yacoubian, she is with the U.S. Institute of Peace. My guess is we'll check in with you often in the days ahead. Mona, thank you so much.

Mona Yacoubian: Thank you, Steve. Appreciate it.