Following the withdrawal of U.S. troops from border posts, Turkey launched a military offensive into northeast Syria to clear, what Turkish President Erdoğan calls, a terrorist corridor. Kurdish Forces in the area are raising alarms about a potential humanitarian catastrophe. Mona Yacoubian examines the decision to withdraw, the risks of Turkey’s incursion, and the future of U.S. policy in Syria.
Syria is witnessing the most significant sectarian violence since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. Unverified estimates put the death toll over 1,000, with civilians comprising the vast majority of those killed. Clashes have largely been centered in Alawite strongholds along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, from the city of Tartus north to Latakia. The violence prompted large-scale protests in Damascus and other cities, while many anxious Alawite families have fled their homes along the coast. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, has called for “civil peace” and announced the launching of an independent committee to investigate the killings.
The collapse of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, is a watershed moment for Syria, marked by significant opportunities as well as several potential challenges. The end of more than 50 years of Assad family rule could open the way for a new, more inclusive Syria. Yet, the country must contend with the aftermath of nearly 14 years of brutal conflict where it is estimated that least 500,000 people were killed and more than 13 million forcibly displaced.
For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and its broader regional reverberations — has shaped Middle East politics and impacted U.S. interests in the region. Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military response in Gaza and the implications for neighboring Jordan and Egypt — as well as seismic ripples in Lebanon and Syria — have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s and the region’s trajectory.
The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has marked a turning point in Syrian-Jordanian relations. For Jordan, Assad’s fall removes a regime that destabilized the country through smuggling networks and alliances with Iran. However, it also ushers in a new era of uncertainty, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group with Islamic Salafist roots, emerging as the dominant force in post-Assad Syria. Syria’s transition will force Jordan to address regional instability and the potential ideological spillover from HTS into its already delicate post-October 7 landscape.