The prospect of wresting the last territorial strongholds from the self-styled Islamic State extremist group—within weeks in Iraq and possibly within months in Syria—lends urgency to the question of how to address the lingering swirl of internal, regional and global conflicts. In a discussion today on Facebook Live, USIP Middle East and North Africa Director Elie Abouaoun, Distinguished Scholar Robin Wright and Senior Policy Scholar Mona Yacoubian explored the multiple factors that will continue to keep the region off balance without comprehensive efforts tailored to conditions on the ground.

Syrian soldiers and children at a checkpoint in the besieged and devastated city of Homs, Syria, March 23, 2014.
Syrian soldiers and children at a checkpoint in the besieged and devastated city of Homs, Syria, March 23, 2014. Photo Courtesy of The New York Times/Sergey Ponomarev

“The ideology will not go away,” Abouaoun said. “What we know from our field observation is the radicalization and the ideology is increasing – in Iraq and Syria but also in other places. So what we need to do is think about how to address the drivers of this radicalization.”

They vary from one place to another depending on political grievances, social and economic exclusion, lack of education and religious discourse, among other factors, he said.

Wright noted that the Islamic State, also known as ISIS or ISIL, at its peak held territory in each country about the size of the U.S. state of Indiana or the country of Jordan.

“The grave danger, of course, is that, if there isn’t the kind of policy in place, the solutions developed by both countries … that we could beat ISIS but still lose the war, still not make the peace,” Wright said.

The U.S. State Department, the U.S. Agency for International Development and other international agencies and organizations can help Iraq and Syria recover security, basic services and governance, Yacoubian said.

“In the absence of those things, you really create fertile ground for a re-emergence of ISIS 2.0,” she said.

Some 50,000 foreign fighters joined ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and 20 percent to 30 percent have returned home as it lost ground, creating new problems for their countries of origin, as well. Almost half of those who came from the U.K., for example, have returned, Wright said.

In the meantime, ISIS has become a global movement, responsible for or inspiring attacks from Europe to the Philippines, and in the U.S. from Florida to California, Wright said.

Wright noted that a USIP study published in December found that, with each generation, the time it takes to mobilize a force such as ISIS—recruiting fighters and getting them onto the battlefield—is halved, and these forces represent a wider array of countries and the agenda becomes more ambitious.

The experts also took questions from Facebook and Twitter on issues such as the implications of a planned independence referendum by Iraqi Kurdistan, how to reintegrate returning fighters and what happens to the diversity that once characterized the rich cultures of Iraq and Syria.

Related Research & Analysis

Sectarian Violence Threatens Syria’s Shaky Transition

Sectarian Violence Threatens Syria’s Shaky Transition

Monday, March 10, 2025

Syria is witnessing the most significant sectarian violence since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. Unverified estimates put the death toll over 1,000, with civilians comprising the vast majority of those killed. Clashes have largely been centered in Alawite strongholds along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, from the city of Tartus north to Latakia. The violence prompted large-scale protests in Damascus and other cities, while many anxious Alawite families have fled their homes along the coast. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, has called for “civil peace” and announced the launching of an independent committee to investigate the killings.

Type: Question and Answer

The Current Situation in Syria

Monday, February 10, 2025

The collapse of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024, is a watershed moment for Syria, marked by significant opportunities as well as several potential challenges. The end of more than 50 years of Assad family rule could open the way for a new, more inclusive Syria. Yet, the country must contend with the aftermath of nearly 14 years of brutal conflict where it is estimated that least 500,000 people were killed and more than 13 million forcibly displaced.

Type: Fact Sheet

The Current Situation: Israel, The Palestinian Territories, Egypt and the Levant

The Current Situation: Israel, The Palestinian Territories, Egypt and the Levant

Monday, February 10, 2025

For over seven decades, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict — and its broader regional reverberations — has shaped Middle East politics and impacted U.S. interests in the region. Hamas’ unprecedented terror attack on October 7, 2023, the Israeli military response in Gaza and the implications for neighboring Jordan and Egypt — as well as seismic ripples in Lebanon and Syria — have sparked a new phase in the conflict’s and the region’s trajectory.

Type: Fact Sheet

After Assad’s Fall, Jordan Deals with New Dilemmas

After Assad’s Fall, Jordan Deals with New Dilemmas

Monday, January 13, 2025

The collapse of Bashar al-Assad’s regime has marked a turning point in Syrian-Jordanian relations. For Jordan, Assad’s fall removes a regime that destabilized the country through smuggling networks and alliances with Iran. However, it also ushers in a new era of uncertainty, with Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS), a terrorist group with Islamic Salafist roots, emerging as the dominant force in post-Assad Syria. Syria’s transition will force Jordan to address regional instability and the potential ideological spillover from HTS into its already delicate post-October 7 landscape.

Type: Analysis

View All Research & Analysis