One of the major drivers of the insurgency that USIP has identified is not an ideological affinity for Taliban goals, but rather corrupt and predatory government practices by the government. The Asia Foundation’s survey, conducted before the new government took office and released Nov. 18 at USIP, bears this out to some degree.

Unemployment and the economy outweighed insecurity as the biggest national problem.

The survey report notes that “respondents who have personal experience with corruption are more likely to sympathize with” armed opposition groups. Corruption ranked fourth as the main reason Afghans cited for the insurgency, after other reasons – the presence of foreign troops, the drive to gain power and support from Pakistan.

Apart from the withdrawal of most international combat troops, this year has been notable for the presidential election and the first transfer of power from one sitting president to an elected successor in Afghan history. The coincidence of these two major events undoubtedly weighed heavily on the minds of Afghans.

The survey took place between June 22 and July 8 -- in other words, shortly after the second round of balloting, in a period in which the election became increasingly contentious, ethnically polarized, and fraught with the risk of violence. Despite this, 73.1 percent of respondents said they were somewhat or very satisfied with the way democracy works in Afghanistan, with 25.9 saying they were somewhat or very dissatisfied. The survey was completed before the election dispute was resolved by means of a power-sharing deal, and it will certainly be interesting to see responses to these questions in next year’s survey.

In its comprehensive report, the Asia Foundation summarized the mood of the country as “cautious optimism” -- cautious because the number of people saying that the country is going in the right direction declined from 57 percent last year to 55 percent this year. But that constitutes optimism nonetheless, because this still represents a majority of the country.

“Overall satisfaction with governance is a key factor underlying responses” in the survey related to the national mood, according to the foundation’s report. More than 35 percent of Afghans cited governance as a reason the country was moving in the wrong direction, and the most frequently cited element of governance that they said was problematic was corruption.

Economic costs of standoff

More than in previous years, the survey demonstrates anxiety about economic concerns. Unemployment and the economy outweighed insecurity as the biggest national problem. This finding is understandable given the decline of international aid -- and the visible signs of that decrease --  along with the international military drawdown and the economic benefit that came with the presence of those troops.

USIP has published research on the economic costs incurred during the drawn-out electoral standoff. Political uncertainty over whether Afghanistan would manage the first democratic transition in its history spurred significant economic hedging behavior in the private and public sectors. This severely crippled the Afghan economy, which has declined 30 percent since the beginning of the year, creating a fiscal gap that the new government must address, among many other issues.

As always, insecurity remains a major concern—for Afghans and for those in the international community trying to assist them, as the recent attacks in Kabul painfully remind us. Perceptions of insecurity drag down other indicators. It is not surprising, for example, that pessimism about the future and lack of confidence in existing institutions is correlated with respondents who live in insecure areas.

Despite this, perceptions of the national army remain generally positive, with 63 percent of survey respondents saying that the forces were “honest and fair” with the Afghan people and 57 percent saying that the national army helps improve security. Perceptions of the Afghan police are generally slightly less positive than that of the army, but in 2014 there was an uptick, with 46 percent saying they believed the police helped improve security compared with 42 percent in 2013. Zach Warren, the survey’s author, said one possible reason for this is the visible and largely effective presence of police during the two election rounds.

On the other hand, sympathy for armed opposition groups  fell from 35 percent in 2013 to 32 percent in 2014. A major question as Afghans look to the immediate future is whether or not the Afghan national security forces will be able to contain or degrade the insurgency after the withdrawal of international combat troops.  

The large crowd attending the survey’s launch at USIP by Warren and colleagues David Arnold, the foundation’s president, and Najla Ayubi, its deputy country director, demonstrates that there is still a great deal of interest in Afghanistan. About 220 people attended the event and 175 watched it online. The presenters acknowledged the difficulty of reaching respondents in areas with security concerns, but they also explained the variety of measures have taken to compensate for those potential variables.

As the longest running national public opinion survey in Afghanistan, the results are is particularly useful for identifying trends. Covering the years between President Karzai’s first election to his unprecedented handover of power to President Ashraf Ghani this year, the data will be indispensable to future historians trying to understand this remarkable period in Afghanistan’s history.

Scott Smith is USIP’s director for Afghanistan and Central Asia.