Research & Analysis
U.S. Institute of Peace’s articles, reports, tools and other features provide policy analysis, research findings, and practitioner guides. These publications examine critical conflict issues at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and resolve violent conflict.
The views expressed in these publications are those of the author(s).
What Does ‘Maximum Pressure’ on Iran Mean for Iraq?
On March 8, the United States allowed a waiver to expire that had permitted Iraq to buy Iranian electricity. The move was the latest in the Trump administration’s “maximum pressure” campaign to cut off Iran’s revenue streams and push Tehran to negotiate over its controversial nuclear program. The waiver dates back to President Trump’s first term. In 2018, Trump withdrew the U.S. from the 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which had granted Iran sanctions relief in return for curbing its nuclear program and expanding cooperation with the U.N. nuclear watchdog.
The Current Situation in Iraq
Iraq continues to recover from cycles of conflict that have displaced millions of people and caused widespread destruction. As the country rebuilds domestically and reintegrates into the region and the international community, it also needs to improve governance, diversify its economy and address water insecurity, among other challenges. Iraq also continues to grapple with the lasting human legacies of ISIS, including the reintegration of returnees from al-Hol camp in Northeast Syria and internally displaced persons.
Stigmatization Experienced by Families with Perceived ISIS Affiliation in Anbar Province
This discussion paper addresses the challenge of stigmatization faced by families in Iraq with perceived ISIS affiliation, particularly in Anbar province, where many have lived in the al-Hol camp. This stigma arises from community beliefs about their connection to ISIS through male relatives or past residence in ISIS-controlled areas. Stigmatization impacts these families' ability to reintegrate and includes harassment, rejection, property appropriation, and legal and social barriers. The paper includes key research findings and policy recommendations in response to these findings.
How Assad’s Fall Could Impact Iraq
The fall of President Bashar al-Assad earlier this month and what comes next in Syria will likely have significant security, political and other implications for Iraq. The situation is dynamic and could evolve in favor of Iraq’s stability or pose new challenges for the country. Iraq is one of a key group of actors — along with Iran, Turkey, the Gulf countries and the United States — whose actions could significantly impact Syria’s trajectory in the months ahead.
Iraq’s Lingering ISIS Challenge and the Role of Dialogue in Return and Reintegration
With conflicts raging in Gaza, Lebanon, Ukraine and Sudan, concerns related to the extremist group ISIS may seem overtaken by these other conflicts. After all, Iraq declared the group’s military defeat in 2017 after the territory held by the extremists was retaken by Iraqi government forces in partnership with the United States. Yet just over a month ago, U.S. and Iraqi forces conducted a joint military raid against the group, killing nine senior ISIS leaders who were hiding in the rugged Hamrin Mountains in northern Iraq. This raid comes off the heels of the UK’s domestic intelligence chief stating that the group is positioning itself as a resurgent threat. Indeed, ISIS has conducted over 150 attacks so far this year in Iraq and Syria, more than those claimed by the group in 2023.
10 Years After ISIS’s Genocide, Iraq Is Still Dealing with the Human Legacies
This year marks the 10-year anniversary of ISIS’ capture of a third of Iraqi and Syrian territory and genocide against the Ezidis (Yazidis) and other communities. Supported by the U.S.-led Global Coalition to Defeat ISIS, Iraq declared military victory over the terrorist group in December 2017 and has significantly reduced and controlled the threat ever since. Significant progress has also been made in the recovery and stabilization process, with the successful return to their areas of origin of some five million of the six million Iraqis internally displaced by the conflict and the rebuilding of many of the regions that the conflict devastated.
Baghdad Is Ready for a New Chapter in U.S.-Iraq Relations
Iraqi Prime Minister Mohammed Shia al-Sudani met last week with U.S. President Joe Biden at the White House as part of a weeklong visit aimed at strengthening bilateral relations. The visit occurred amid several historic anniversaries and dangerous developments in the Middle East. April marks the 21st anniversary of the toppling of Saddam Hussein. Since 2003, the U.S.-Iraq relationship has witnessed many ups and downs. Even as tensions persist, particularly in relation to the U.S. troop presence in the country, al-Sudani’s visit — which featured the largest delegation Iraqis have brought to Washington — demonstrates Iraqi will to start a new chapter in the strategic partnership that goes beyond security.
Is the Middle East on the Verge of a Wider War?
Three months after the Hamas terror attack on Israel, reverberations from the ensuing conflict in Gaza threaten to engulf the region in a wider war.
Iraq’s Provincial Council Elections: The Way Forward in Nineveh Province
On December 18, Iraqis will elect members of the provincial councils, the highest oversight bodies of subnational government and key providers of public services. The elections are the first at the provincial level in over a decade and come in the wake of the 2019 anti-government protests that resulted in the dissolution of the provincial councils following demands from the protesters who accused them of corruption. Recent findings from the U.S. Institute of Peace’s Conflict and Stabilization Monitoring Framework in Nineveh Province reveal that candidates are facing a distrustful electorate that is lacking confidence in state institutions.
Climate Adaption Key to Iraq’s Stability and Economic Development
Iraq is projected to be among the five countries hardest hit by the impact of climate change. The country is already witnessing depreciating water supply and accelerating desertification, leading to the loss of as much as 60,000 acres of arable land each year, according to Iraqi government and United Nations sources. These climate phenomena threaten the livelihoods and food security of Iraq’s population of an estimated 43 million, creating conditions for displacement, instability and a deterioration of social cohesion. The water crisis has grown steadily amid severe drought, upstream damming practices in Turkey and Iran, and increased domestic consumption within Iraq’s borders.