Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Question And Answer
India’s BRICS Balancing Act
Southeast Asian Nations Convene amid Myanmar Crisis, South China Sea Tensions
Leaders from the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) are in Vientiane, Laos this week for the bloc’s annual summit and the concurrent East Asia Summit, which brings ASEAN together with other important regional players like the U.S., Japan, South Korea, Russia and China. Typically, the East Asia Summit is not a venue for major policy discussions, but the gathering offers opportunities for a bevy of side meetings between various countries. At both summits, Southeast Asian leaders will lament progress on Myanmar and the South China Sea — where China’s maritime claims and aggressive actions lead to tensions with regional countries — and the state of the world in general.
Myanmar Scam Hubs Revive Fast After China Eases Pressure on Junta
Transnational crime groups in Southeast Asia, hit with intense scrutiny and law enforcement action earlier this year, are moving into new areas and adapting their operations as they revive and expand global scam operations. In Myanmar — a key center of this internet-based criminal activity — extreme political instability combined with the connivance of the country’s military and its militias continue to provide fertile ground for crime groups, albeit in new configurations. At the same time, a sudden shift in China’s posture toward Myanmar’s military regime has eased pressure on the scam industry, allowing criminal networks to further scale up their malign activities.
As Myanmar’s Junta Loses Control in the North, China’s Influence Grows
Earlier this year, China brokered talks between Myanmar’s military and an alliance of ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) that handed the army its worst defeat in history. The negotiations’ goal was to restore overland trade — interrupted by fighting — between China’s Yunnan Province and Myanmar. To China’s frustration, the talks collapsed in mid-May, and in late June the alliance reopened its anti-junta offensive.
Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics
Jason Tower, country director for the Burma program at the U.S. Institute of Peace, testified on July 9, 2024, before the U.S. House Foreign Affairs Committee Subcommittee on Global Health, Global Human Rights and International Organizations’ hearing on “Examining the 2024 Annual Trafficking in Persons Report: Progress over Politics.”
Jason Tower on the Dangerous Proliferation of Scam Compounds in Southeast Asia
Chinese crime syndicates have set up sophisticated online scamming operations throughout Southeast Asia that rake in an estimated $64 billion a year. Relying on forced labor, the scam compounds “look almost like penal colonies,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding: “This is happening on an industrial scale.”
China Forces Myanmar Scam Syndicates to Move to Thai Border
While Myanmar has long been the chief venue for the criminal operations of Chinese-origin gangs in Southeast Asia, these organizations have always stood ready to move — internally or across borders — if their sources of protection dissolved. In recent months, the organized crime kingpins have once again faced a fraying safety net. This time, the cause is the weakening of Myanmar’s corrupt coup regime in the face of a rising, multi-front revolution and, perhaps more importantly, an aggressive push by China’s law enforcement authorities.
Myanmar’s Collapsing Military Creates a Crisis on China’s Border
Operation 1027 — an offensive launched in October 2023 by an alliance of three ethnic armed organizations (EAOs) against the military junta in Myanmar — has disrupted hundreds of forced labor scam syndicates operating under the protection of Myanmar’s army, dented the army’s image of invincibility and decimated the lucrative China-Myanmar border trade. A second operation launched on March 7 by another EAO in Kachin State has compounded China’s economic woes by adding to the impact on trade.
Three Years After Coup, Myanmar’s Generals Face an Existential Crisis
Three years after Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government, the ruling generals — having suffered humiliating battlefield defeats — face an existential crisis. Victories by the diverse ranks of Myanmar’s resistance have invigorated their morale and they are tightening battlefield coordination despite slow progress toward political consensus. The military, meanwhile, is short of manpower and controls a shrinking percentage of the nation.
Jason Tower on China’s Growing Influence in Myanmar
A string of recent defeats for Myanmar’s junta has “re-energized the resistance across the country,” says USIP’s Jason Tower. But as China takes a more involved approach to the conflict, there are concerns that “growing Chinese influence might pose more of a challenge to a free and open Indo-Pacific in the future.”
China’s Influence Increases amid Myanmar’s Instability
Operation 1027 in Myanmar’s northern Shan State has advanced China’s quest to eradicate forced labor scam compounds on its border. However, it has also disrupted the lucrative China-Myanmar border trade and triggered a countrywide attack by resistance forces that has dealt the junta unprecedented battlefield losses. Beijing is concerned that its southwestern provinces will experience economic hardship with the loss of border trade, and that continuing hostilities may affect these provinces’ energy security. The Myanmar army’s desperate request for Chinese help to deal with the fallout from Operation 1027 has probably generated further concern in China that the military may be on the brink of defeat.