Sort
Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Amendments: Scare Tactics or Real Shift?

Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Amendments: Scare Tactics or Real Shift?

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Moscow has relied on nuclear coercion and compellence to shape Western decision-making. On November 19, 2024, President Vladimir Putin approved amendments to Russia's nuclear doctrine, signaling a lowered threshold for nuclear first use. While the 2024 amendments introduce new details to possible scenarios for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, they do not constitute a significant departure from previous doctrine.

Type: Analysis

Can India Advance Peace in Ukraine?

Can India Advance Peace in Ukraine?

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, India has worked to protect its strategic relationship with Russia while maintaining its burgeoning ties with the United States and Europe. India’s balancing act was on display earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia in July and made a historic trip to Ukraine the following month. Modi has portrayed a neutral stance on the Ukraine war and positioned India as a key player in any potential peace process.

Type: Question and Answer

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Trajectory

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Trajectory

Friday, January 3, 2025

As Ukraine considers the “politically loaded” question of whether to lower the age of military mobilization, Putin increasingly sees the war “not just as a land grab, but as a civilizational battle between Russia and the West,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding: “We should not think that the war is anything close to being settled.”

Type: Podcast

Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

Thursday, December 19, 2024

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has catalyzed a profound shift in global power dynamics: the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia. This relationship, while rooted in history, represents a significant departure from previous patterns of cooperation. China-Russia ties have evolved from a transactional relationship of convenience to a more durable strategic alignment, while continuing to fall short of a full-blown military alliance. This development challenges traditional Western assumptions about the limits of authoritarian cooperation and may signal the emergence of a new model of international partnership.

Type: Analysis

Iran and Russia Are the Biggest Regional Losers of Assad’s Fall

Iran and Russia Are the Biggest Regional Losers of Assad’s Fall

Thursday, December 12, 2024

Among the central factors that led to the ouster of Syrian dictator Bashar al-Assad was Iran’s and Russia’s decisions to not intervene yet again to prop him up. Tehran had long used Syria as vector to project influence in the region and marshalled significant resources and manpower to keep Assad in power when the Syrian civil war erupted in 2011. Moscow similarly saw its ties with Assad as a source of regional influence, and its 2015 intervention in Syria was decisive in Assad maintaining his stranglehold on power.

Type: Question and Answer

China and Ukraine: Pulling Its Weight with Russia or Potemkin Peacemaker?

China and Ukraine: Pulling Its Weight with Russia or Potemkin Peacemaker?

Friday, November 22, 2024

On Thursday, China’s ambassador, Ma Shengkun, presented his credentials at Ukraine’s Foreign Ministry. Ma, a career diplomat with a background in arms control, replaces Fan Xianrong who had held the post for the past four and a half years. While a diplomatic reshuffle was due, the timing of the turnover and the selection of Ma, in tandem with other recent developments, suggest that China discerns a gradual gathering of momentum for a peace process or truce talks in coming months. In short, Beijing may be seeking to posture itself in anticipation of a new initiative to end — or at least pause — the war in Ukraine.

Type: Analysis

U.S. Concerns Over ‘Axis of Authoritarianism’ Cloud Final Biden-Xi Meeting

U.S. Concerns Over ‘Axis of Authoritarianism’ Cloud Final Biden-Xi Meeting

Thursday, November 21, 2024

With President Joe Biden’s presidential term ending in a few weeks, expectations for his final meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping were modest, especially considering the broader frictions in U.S.-China relations. Biden and Xi met on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Peru on November 16. The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining open communications channels to manage the two powers’ many differences.

Type: Analysis

China’s Dilemmas Deepen as North Korea Enters Ukraine War

China’s Dilemmas Deepen as North Korea Enters Ukraine War

Thursday, November 14, 2024

Until late October, the big questions about China’s role in the Ukraine conflict centered around whether Beijing would choose to expand its support for Russia to include lethal aid, or if it might engage in more active peacemaking to end the conflict. Then, on November 4, the Pentagon confirmed that North Korea sent more than 10,000 troops to Russia’s Kursk oblast, where Ukraine had captured some territory earlier this year. Days later, the State Department confirmed that North Korean soldiers had begun fighting Ukrainian troops.

Type: Analysis

How Should Seoul Respond to North Korea's Soldiers in Russia?

How Should Seoul Respond to North Korea's Soldiers in Russia?

Wednesday, November 13, 2024

The Ukraine war is taking a new turn with the involvement of North Korean soldiers. Washington estimates that, so far, North Korea has sent approximately 10,000 troops to Russia — around 8,000 of whom have been deployed to the western region of Kursk, where Ukraine seized territory in a surprise attack earlier this year. And as U.S. officials predicted in late October, North Korean troops have reportedly begun engaging in direct combat.

Type: Analysis