Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Nigeria at a Crossroads: Navigating Protests Amid Elections
Nigerians marked their 64th independence day on October 1 with widespread protests fueled by growing public anger over soaring inflation, worsening insecurity, ineffective governance and rising fuel prices. This marks the second time in less than three months that citizens have taken to the streets. In August, during the “10 Days of Rage,” the appearance of Russian flags and calls for military intervention distracted from Nigeria’s entrenched governance and economic crises — issues that continue to drive insecurity and demand urgent government action. The latest protests coincide with local elections, heightening pressure on the government to demonstrate a genuine commitment to addressing citizens’ concerns in a tangible, meaningful way.
Stability in West Africa: Working With Nigeria’s State Governments
As coups and other setbacks have stymied military-led efforts to stem upheavals in West Africa and the Sahel, a potent new constituency of leaders has just gathered to plan nonviolent strategies to stabilize their own core area of the region: northern Nigeria. In West Africa’s demographic giant, economic crisis is exacerbating intercommunal conflicts, crime and other violence — and Nigeria’s federalism gives vital roles to its states in addressing roots of these problems. Ten recently elected state governors gathered in Washington last month with peacebuilding and development experts, business leaders and senior U.S. officials; they resolved to strengthen and coordinate state-level stabilization strategies — an initiative that international partners should support.
The Current Situation in Nigeria
In 2023, the Network of Nigerian Facilitators (NNF) helped the Kaduna State peacebuilding institutions negotiate, draft and implement a peace agreement between local groups to resolve a long-standing and violent communal conflict. The agreement built on a 2019 peace agreement also supported by the NNF to resolve a cross-border conflict involving many of the same groups in neighboring Plateau State.
For Peace in Africa, Boost Regional Blocs — Like West Africa’s ECOWAS
As the United States and international partners work to stabilize Africa’s Sahel region — and to prevent its warfare, violent extremism and armed coups from metastasizing into Africa’s densely populous and strategic Atlantic coast — the West African multinational bloc, ECOWAS, has proven its value in resolving crises and promoting stability. Yet, as global security threats have evolved, ECOWAS, like other multinational bodies, needs updated capacities to meet new challenges. International democracies’ most effective initiative to support West Africa’s stability would be to partner with West Africans to strengthen their vital regional community. A similar strategy is valid across Africa.
To Help Stabilize West Africa, Bolster a Key Partner: Nigeria
Continued violence in West Africa is sharpening America’s critical challenge to reduce extremism and violence, particularly in the Sahel. Violent deaths in three western Sahel nations surged by 38% last year and Niger’s coup has complicated the U.S. military role in the region. The violence is likely to spread further this year into coastal West Africa, a region five times more populous, with commensurately greater security implications for Africa, the United States and the world. A vital partner in stabilizing both regions is Nigeria, and U.S. institutions should consider several priorities for helping it do so.
Disengaging and Reintegrating Violent Extremists in Conflict Zones
Dealing with people who leave violent extremist groups has become one of the most pressing security issues of our time. Drawing on new primary research conducted by the author in Iraq, Syria, and Nigeria, and existing research on disengagement and reintegration, this report underscores the challenges of administering rehabilitation programs in conditions of chronic insecurity—and of doing so at a scale sufficient to make a difference to hundreds or even thousands of people in short order.
After Nigeria’s Elections: Nurturing the Seeds of Better Democracy
Nigeria’s latest elections heighten the country’s need for a reset of its democracy. Nigeria’s two dominant parties abandoned an informal pact that has rotated power between north and south, papering over the deeper, wider problem of ensuring real political inclusion among Nigeria’s disparate regions and communities. The recent national and state-level votes failed to deliver anguished Nigerians the promise of wider voter participation and transparent election results. Still, the campaigns and voting contained seeds for critical change that now must be cultivated by Nigeria’s newly elected government; its courageous, pro-democracy civil society; its vast, energized youth population; and its partners.
Nigeria’s Vote Signals Risks: How Its Partners Can Support Democracy
Nigeria’s disputed election 12 days ago is raising protest at home and concern abroad over its implications for the strength of democracy in that country and across Africa. Yesterday’s new wrinkle was the postponement of this week’s planned election for Nigerian state governors. Nigeria’s electoral commission is working to fix problems in a vote management system that failed to transparently process and report a result on February 25. An erosion of democracy’s credibility in Africa’s most populous nation would be catastrophic.
Ambassador Makila James on Nigeria’s Elections
While Nigeria’s elections energized youth voters and avoided widespread violence, President-elect Bola Ahmed Tinubu won only a plurality of votes. As concerns over the results’ legitimacy mount, “a weak mandate means [Tinubu] is going to have to work very smartly to build coalitions,” says USIP’s Makila James.
A Key Election for Nigeria Raises a Rising Demand: Inclusion
Nigerians, nearly one-sixth of all Africans, will choose a new president next week in what may be Africa’s most consequential election of 2023. A central demand amid this campaign is a better inclusion of Nigeria’s hundreds of ethnic, religious and other communities in elections and governance.