Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Five Lessons from Guatemala’s 2023 Election
When Bernardo Arévalo won the presidency last year, it left Guatemala’s corrupt old guard reeling. Arévalo and his anti-corruption Semilla Movement posed a direct threat to the power of Guatemala’s “pacto de los corruptos” — an alliance of government officials, politicians, prosecutors, judges, party financiers, state contractors and some wealthy families. The pact mobilized to overturn the election results. But Guatemala’s civil society, backed by U.S. and broader international support, was able to uphold the elections and advance democracy in the Central American nation.
Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Guatemala's Kleptocracy Fights Back
Last year was a pivotal moment for Guatemala’s democracy. Longshot candidate Bernardo Arévalo rode popular anti-corruption fervor into a shocking second place finish in the first-round presidential polls, ultimately winning the presidency in the runoff. Since Guatemala transitioned to a democracy in the mid-1980s, the country has been wracked by increasingly pervasive corruption, perpetrated and perpetuated by venal elites.
Sometimes the Good Guys Win: Guatemala’s Shocking 2023 Election
Guatemala’s 2023 elections were a turning point for the country. Despite a playing field tilted to favor the governing elite, voters elected Bernardo Arévalo, whose Semilla (“Seed”) Movement promised to break the country’s cycles of corruption, restoring democracy and the rule of law. Success was — and remains — far from inevitable. The kleptocracy pushed back hard, using their control of the public prosecutors’ office to open spurious investigations and pursue unsupported claims of electoral fraud.
Ce qu'un gouvernement de transition en Haïti aura besoin pour réussir
Après des semaines de consultations, et au milieu d'une quasi-rupture totale de l'ordre et de la loi en Haïti, un effort dirigé par la Communauté caribéenne (CARICOM) pour créer un nouveau conseil de gouvernance de transition pourrait être sur le point d'être achevé. La mise en place du conseil permettrait l'entrée d'une force de sécurité multinationale qui pourrait ensuite se joindre à la police nationale haïtienne pour rétablir l'ordre. Certains ont suggéré l'inclusion de "facilitateurs" pour la nouvelle force de sécurité - soutien aérien, drones, renseignement. Mais pour gagner la confiance du peuple haïtien, le nouveau conseil de gouvernance aura besoin de ses propres "facilitateurs" populaires, d'un moyen systématique d'inclure de nombreux autres secteurs de la société haïtienne qui sont actuellement ignorés ou délibérément exclus de la gouvernance.
What a Transitional Government in Haiti will Require to Succeed
After weeks of consultations, and amidst a near total breakdown of law and order in Haiti, a Caribbean Community (CARICOM)-led effort to create a new transitional governing council may be nearing completion. The council’s establishment would allow for the entry of a multinational security force that would then be able to join with the Haitian National Police and restore order. Some have suggested the inclusion of “enablers” for the new security force — air support, drones, intelligence. But to gain the trust of the Haitian people, the new governing council will need its own popular “enablers,” a systematic way to include many more sectors of Haitian society that are currently ignored or deliberately excluded from governance.
For Peace in Haiti, Let’s Build on the Success We’re Ignoring
Haiti’s new eruption of violence threatens anarchy and famine for its 11 million people and endangers security in the entire region, yet “an old narrative that ‘Haiti is hopeless’” risks deterring U.S and international policymakers from any real effort to help, says Marie-Marcelle Deschamps, an internationally recognized Haitian doctor and humanitarian. “The world is hesitating, and thus isolating Haiti, but this ignores many successful ways that Haitians and international partners have built progress and peace together.”
Keith Mines on the Collapse of Haiti’s Governance
With the governing structure now collapsing, Haitian gangs “have the country in a stranglehold,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, and that the best path to re-establish stability is “to form a new transitional government that would be more inclusive, that would have better connections to the Haitian people.”
How to Avert a Gang Takeover of Haiti
Policymakers across the Western Hemisphere were shocked this weekend by news of a concerted effort by a coalition of gangs to attack Haiti’s key infrastructure, block the capital’s airport and prevent Prime Minister Ariel Henry from returning from a trip abroad. After all, the analysis went, Henry’s position seemed cemented as the deadline of February 7 — when he was supposed to hand over power to an elected government — passed with no real challenges to his rule. Now, absent an inclusive transitional arrangement that can effectively govern, the possibility of total collapse and anarchy in Haiti is ever more real.
El Salvador’s Bukele: From ‘World’s Coolest Dictator’ to ‘Philosopher King’
El Salvador’s president, Nayib Bukele, celebrated a landslide electoral victory on Feb. 4, far outstripping his nearest competitor. “The opposition was pulverized,” Bukele told jubilant crowds outside the National Palace on election night. In reply to critics who warn that El Salvador is moving toward authoritarianism, he proclaimed, “we are not substituting democracy because El Salvador has never had democracy.” The leader who once called himself the “world’s coolest dictator” now boasts of being his country’s “philosopher king.”
Keith Mines on Haiti’s Security and Governance Crises
Haiti’s slow decline has led the country to the brink of collapse. And while the international community has offered to help, “there’s just a lot of pieces … that haven’t come together yet,” says USIP’s Keith Mines, adding: “It probably will take a stronger lead by the United States” to restore security and governance.