U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Let's talk with Dr. Andrew Scobell, who is a distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Good morning to you. How are you?

Andrew Scobell: Good, thanks Laura.

Laura Coates: I know there has been a lot happening over the weekend, and frankly, throughout the last couple weeks, in terms of the new administration, with the conversations of what it would be like in terms of the relationship between China and the United States under a second Trump administration. What is your expectation for the relationship between the two nations?

Andrew Scobell: You know, continued stormy weather. I think the tendency is to expect that there'll be a significant, perhaps a significant change in our China policy with a new administration coming in, especially with a leader as sort of unconventional as Donald Trump. But I think we'll actually see more continuity than change, and so an increasing continuation of a tense relationship between Washington and Beijing.

Laura Coates: There's an interesting piece about, the phrase was “Neither War nor Peace, The China Challenge of Now.” What is the challenge?

Andrew Scobell: Well, I wrote that, and I argue that while we shouldn't, we need to prepare for the eventuality, a possible eventuality of a war with China. We need to make sure if and when we fight China, that the U.S. is ready, but we also can't ignore the current, most immediate challenge that China presents to the U.S. and our allies and partners around the world, and that is what's known as gray zone operations, gray zone activities. So, there's two definitions, two understandings of what gray zone means, one sort of net more narrowly focused on the use of military force, paramilitary force below the threshold of outright conflict, to coerce and intimidate other countries. A more broader definition of gray zone includes things like economic coercion, political influence operations, meddling in disinformation, misinformation, meddling in elections, etc. So, I think we know the Chinese are doing that on a day-to-day basis all around the world.

Laura Coates:
In terms of the relationship, I mean, obviously there's trade issues to consider, there's the power dynamics at play. There's also the idea of diplomacy and how receptive each nation is going to be in terms of listening to one another, but also being able to be in any way influenced by the other. What, how do you see the power dynamic between China and the United States today?

Andrew Scobell: In a sense, it's a confrontation between powers that are actually, I wouldn't say China is a peer competitor, but it's a near peer. You know, economically, militarily, not that the gap is closing between the U.S. and China. But as I, you mentioned, the piece, “Neither War nor Peace” that I published a week or so ago. I think one of the dimensions to this that we perhaps don't fully appreciate is the way Chinese thinking on matters of war and peace differs to what we in the U.S. tend to think about war and peace. And in the U.S., we tend to think we're either at war over the country, or we're at peace. In Chinese communist thinking, and after all, we're talking about a communist party ruled China, they think about war and peace as being on a continuum. So one extreme is absolute peace. At the other extreme is all out, global war, but on a day-to-day basis China's communist rulers think that they're operating somewhere along that spectrum, that continuum between war and peace. So, they're always struggling, always in competition. And that's something in the United States that we don't tend to fully appreciate, and I think we're not mentally comfortable in that space, and yet China is.

Laura Coates: What about the issue with Taiwan? What would peaceful reunification with Taiwan really mean?

Andrew Scobell: Well, this the great question. This is a, you know, this competition between the U.S. and China is global, but I think ground zero, Taiwan is ground zero, and so they're experiencing, you know, gray zone on steroids, from China. So, since the late 1970s officially, China's policy on Taiwan is peaceful reunification and that's a misnomer. In a sense, it's Orwellian double speak, because reunification is not accurate, because the People's Republic of China, communist China has never controlled Taiwan. So, it's not reunification, moreover, peaceful, as I suggested, they have a different understanding of what peaceful means. Peaceful really means conquest by coercion. So peaceful really means short of actual military, military conflict, but using elevated gray zone activity against to intimidate and message Taiwan that resistance is futile.

Laura Coates: Really fascinating. I'm so glad that you stopped by the program today. Thank you so much. Dr. Andrew Scobell, distinguished fellow with the China program at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Have a great day.

Andrew Scobell: Thank you, Laura.