U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Steve Scully: It has been an incredible afternoon, and we have two terrific guests to wrap up our coverage here at the U.S. Institute of Peace and pleased to welcome the chairman of the board, and we heard him at the top of the first hour, Ambassador John Sullivan. Mr. Ambassador, thanks so much for joining us.

Ambassador Sullivan: Pleasure to be with you today, Steve.

Steve Scully: And in just moment, we'll check in with the former chief of naval operations for the U.S. Navy. But I want to begin with the drone attacks by Ukraine inside Russia, some of the news that broke a few hours ago as the clock continues to tick on the Biden White House and what may happen when Donald Trump takes over. What's the significance of what's happening today right now inside Russia by those Ukraine drones?

Ambassador Sullivan: Well, it's a couple of things, Steve, first, it's a sign of the continuing resistance by the Ukrainian people in the Ukrainian government to Russia's aggressive war. This is a people in a country that's not just going to surrender, whether the United States stands with them or not. The Ukrainians don't want to become a part of Russia, and they're making that clear through their military, and they're striking at Russia because Russia attacked them. It's what one would expect a people to do who are striving for independence from a country that looks to dominate them.

Steve Scully: So what will this look like six months from now?

Ambassador Sullivan: Boy, that's a great question. I will tell you this, I would be shocked if over the last three years where we've seen a commitment by the Ukrainians to defend themselves against Russia. That will not change. The support by the United States, I hope continues, but with or without it, the Ukrainian people are going to resist the Russian occupation of their country and continuing attacks on their infrastructure with missiles and drones.

Steve Scully: It’s so good to see you in person, and I appreciated the time we had on Friday here on the POTUS channel, on the briefing. I'm curious what the end game is for Vladimir Putin and how he sells this to his own people?

Ambassador Sullivan: Well, the war has had a significant impact on Russia. I'm asked all the time whether, for example, western sanctions, have they been effective? Have they changed Russia's policy toward Ukraine? And the obvious answer is no, but it's had a pretty dramatic effect on the Russian economy. Inflation is very high. It's going to be persistent. The Russian economy is really in very, very tough straits. So Putin is mortgaging the future of Russia and the Russian people to fight this aggressive war. He's not going to surrender, he's not going to surrender his war aims and the Russian people are ultimately going to, ultimately going to pay the price for that in the future.

Steve Scully: This is an incredible day “Passing the Baton”. And pleased to welcome also to the conversation, Admiral Gary Roughead, former Chief of Naval Operations, a 1973 graduate of the Naval Academy. And hey, how about that? 31-13 win over Army.

Admiral Roughead: That was pretty good.

Steve Scully: Were you surprised?

Admiral Roughead: A little bit, you know, Army has a terrific program, but what you saw on the field that day was a Navy team that came ready to play, and they just did a remarkable job, and couldn't be more proud of them.

Steve Scully: I apologize to our Army veterans but go Navy beat Army. Let's just get that out at the outset, but let's turn to some serious issues, and your Q and A was enlightening. And one of the things I took away from is the opportunity perhaps we may have in the Middle East with Syria and the ouster of President Assad. What are those opportunities, and how do you see that developing in the coming months and years?

Admiral Roughead: Well, I think there's no question that the change of regime in Syria has altered the landscape in that part of the world. And since we're here at USIP, I would say that this is an area where USIP can do some of their great work in working with leaders there, with communities there, to try to stitch a country back together again, to be able to make sure that it's stable and prosperous and can rebuild itself from decades of oppression. So, you know, we'll see which way Turkey goes, how they play. I think the, you know, the jury is still out on that but I think it's important that we look at the Middle East in ways that it's going to be changing, and we also have to think of it in terms of what Turkey's ambitions may be. You know, I spend a lot of time thinking about maritime issues, and their idea of really being a greater player in the Mediterranean will alter some things. The fact that Russia no longer has a foothold in Syria, I think, is significant, and we really need to take advantage of Russia's departure and reshaping that area.

Steve Scully: Admiral, did it surprise you how quickly Assad fled the country? I mean, his departure was relatively quick by some standards.

Admiral Roughead: I was quite surprised how quickly he fled.
Steve Scully: Let's talk about the belt initiative, the “Belt and Road” by China, which began about a decade ago and first explain to the POTUS audience the significance of what China launched back in 2013 and what it means for not only Asia, but also for Africa and for Europe.

Admiral Roughead: The Belt and Road is really a strategic plan that China put in place, really, before Xi Jinping, that has kind of altered Eurasia, as I mentioned in my remarks. There were two components to it. One was “The Silk Road” that replicated the old Silk Road that went through the Eurasian land mass. The other was a “Maritime Silk Road” that, for the first time, you now have China really beginning to move into the maritime space, creating a series of ports, creating networks into areas where they saw a market, but importantly, areas and countries where they saw resources to be able to continue to feed their economy and their enterprises and what they have been able to do. A lot of it initially was in infrastructure, port facilities, but now that “Belt and Road” is changing, and it's now what I think of as a digital “Belt and Road”. Companies like Huawei that go in and develop the digital infrastructure upon which other parts of that country's economy will build, also green energy, medical “Belt and Road” and so we're if we think that we're going to be countering a lot of construction workers that was the past. What we really need to think about now is, how do we get in and how do we have those countries see more value and the types of technology, systems and processes that we can put in so that they can realize a better economic future.

Steve Scully: We are talking to Admiral Gary Roughhead, former Chief of Naval Operations, Naval Academy graduate and Ambassador John Sullivan, who served as our envoy to Russia. What's the end game for Russia when it comes to what you're hearing about China, and also taking that a step further, the relationship between Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin?

Ambassador Sullivan: Well, it's developed over the last 10 years, Steve, in a significant and threatening way. China, the P.R.C. provides really a lifeline to Russia. Russia would otherwise be isolated from the global economy, but for the impact of trade with China, dual use technologies and so forth, so Putin has become dependent on the P.R.C., on Xi Jinping, in ways that makes him uncomfortable, because China is a much bigger country, much bigger economy, ultimately, a peer competitor of the United States, which Russia is not so Putin is now. And Russians themselves would tell me this, they're concerned about their dependence on the P.R.C., but Putin doesn't have a real alternative at this point. So, he's making the best of it and putting a good face on it. He's trying to reorient the Russian economy south and east away from the West in building his defense industrial base, because he's all in for this war that he started.

Steve Scully: We were talking earlier about the real threats we're facing. You talked about information technology, AI technology, and I said to one of our guests early in the program, it's really a brand-new frontier as we try to really understand the threats and the opportunities. And you are very supportive of the Space Force, because that's a key component in that. I'm curious to get your thoughts, Admiral, on what worries you about AI and how we can navigate this very uncertain future.

Ambassador Sullivan: Yeah, what concerns me, and I mentioned it in my remarks, AI, as it couples to a nuclear deterrent. I think that is an area that truly is unplowed territory and that's my concern with respect to that. The other aspect of AI that worries me is that we really need to move quickly to the applications of AI, within the military. I believe that we are focused on the technology as we rightly should be, and we continue to refine that and talk about how it may be used, we need to start getting those applications out into the field. That's where I think China clearly does not have the degree and level of technology that we have, but they will begin to move that into applications, civil and military, and as a first mover. To go back to your earlier question on the Belt and Road, if they begin to take some of these AI applications into the countries that they are embedded in as a result of the Belt and Road, they're the first arrival. They'll be the first mover there, and will we have the opportunities to work with those countries and shape the application of AI consistent with our values and consistent with our interests.

Steve Scully: Ambassador Sullivan, we talk about the geopolitical threats from China, from Russia, but there's also threats from what we've seen in the Middle East, from terror organizations that can disrupt day-to day-life, that can really cause havoc here in the U.S. What keeps you up at night on that front?

Ambassador Sullivan: Well, particularly in the Middle East, Steve, I think you can trace it all back to Tehran and the role of the Islamic Republic of Iran in supporting terrorist groups, Hezbollah, Hamas, the Houthis in Yemen. The regime in Tehran is on its back foot. Hezbollah has really been decimated by the Israelis. Of course, Hamas has been engaged in a brutal war that the Israelis have weighed successfully to bring Hamas to heel, which is an ongoing conflict, one that Admiral Roughead mentioned during his discussion, which is having a global impact, is Iran's continuing support, modest though it is, to the Houthi in Yemen, who are just disrupting significant global shipping routes through the Red Sea. But ultimately, Steve, you trace it all back to Tehran, and Tehran, in turn, gets support from Russia and Beijing.

Steve Scully: And Admiral this is an institute designed to have negotiations, to have conversations with adversaries, but how do you do that with terror groups?

Admiral Roughead: Frankly, I don't think you can until you put those terror groups into a position where they're up against the wall,

Steve Scully: Like Qatar getting involved in the Middle East?

Admiral Roughead: Well, but I'm talking more in terms of, as the ambassador mentioned, Israel has really decimated Hezbollah. They've taken their toll on Hamas, and it's when those terror groups are so debilitated or decimated that that's when I think you can get to the table and maybe begin to the discussion. But to the ambassador's point, it all goes back to Tehran. You know, the funding that flows and the return on the investment that Tehran is getting out of the Houthis, for example, is really pretty significant. And it all goes back to Iran, and that's where I believe the pressure needs to be applied. If there's enough pressure, will that ultimately result in some form of a dialogue?

Steve Scully: So just yesterday, President Joe Biden talked about better relations with Iran. Would you agree or disagree with that?

Ambassador Sullivan: Better relations with Iran only because Iran has really been knocked on its rear end, to use a technical diplomatic term, given what's happened to its proxies, in Lebanon, in Syria, you know, we talked about Syria with Admiral Roughead. The Admiral discussed it in his Q & A. The Islamic Republic invested a lot of money, troops, weapons, in propping up the Assad regime. And the Assad regime is gone as that Iranian influence. So, I don't think that the Iranians had much of a choice but to try to engage more with the West. I would not count on reaching any sort of agreement with the current regime in Tehran. I think, as the Admiral said in talking about terrorist groups, they're sort of forced, they're in a difficult position now, and they don't have a lot of options.

Steve Scully: So how does the Trump administration navigate all that is ahead with the Gaza Strip, our ironclad support for Israel, relations with the Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, but an area that has been decimated by war and the Gaza and people, the Palestinian people, need a place to live and rebuild. So how is that going to work?

Admiral Roughead: Well, I think that's one of the great challenges for the administration, but I do believe that where the administration was, and I think the ambassador has more insight on this than I but, the Abraham Accords, working with the Gulf states this is where I think the administration has had, they have had a vision. They've been able to implement some of it. But now is the time with the terrorist groups debilitated, to really press on that, to get the Gulf states involved, because that also is a pressure on Iran, because the fact of the matter is the Sunni-Shia divide is alive and well. And I think if you can get the Abraham Accords revitalized, use that as a vehicle for rebuilding Gaza, I think that is a good place to start.

Steve Scully: Can we get there though? That's the challenge.

Admiral Roughead: Time will tell.

Steve Scully: You are the head of the board of directors here at USIP, and this is an event that dates back to 2000, 2001 as we saw another Democratic administration give way to a Republican administration. Just been a moment to talk about why you convene this and it's a bipartisan, nonpartisan event, Democrats and Republicans, members of the outgoing and incoming administration here today, to do what?

Ambassador Sullivan: Well, it's as the as the title of the event suggests, “Passing the Baton”, the responsibility for the National Security of the United States is going to pass from one group of American leaders to a new group, and we've got to make sure that there are no slip ups. And among the lessons that were learned after the attacks on September 11, almost 25 years ago now, was how important transitions are. It's a moment of vulnerability for the United States when a White House, the White House occupants and the West Wing occupants vacate their offices, and a new team comes in. So it's important to the run up to that day, January 20, that both teams, the outgoing team, the incoming team, are able to share notes, perspectives for the outgoing team to give warnings, a heads up on issues that might not have been apparent to the incoming team before they get into their new offices.

Steve Scully: And you mentioned 911 and Admiral you talked about this in your Q & A, the flow of information, national security information among all branches and the DNI and the CIA and the FBI. Just spend a moment to talk about how that works and what the lessons are from what we saw September 11 and where we are now, 25 years later.

Admiral Roughead: Yep, I think where we are 25 years later, I believe that we are much more attuned to being able to pull information and insight out of the public domain in ways that prior to 911 we tended not to do. And I think that is one of the most critical aspects of it. I think the other aspect that has changed is even though it may not seem as seamless as we'd like it to be, the agencies are sharing information much better. I would also argue that there's more likely better information sharing among our allies and other partners. So I think that was a change. But what really need to think about now is, as we move into a world where there's more information in social media, how do we pull that and how do we get that information in a way that's consistent with our democratic principles?

Steve Scully: Final question for both of you, I'll give you each about a half a minute. It's a broad question, but your advice to the incoming Secretary of State, Marco Rubio, as he navigates all that we've been talking about here today, Ambassador?

Ambassador Sullivan: Wow, well, he's certainly well prepared for the job, having served for many years in the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, so he knows what the challenges are. My advice to him would be to establish good working relationships within the administration and with the White House. So he knows what the problems are. He's on the Senate Intelligence Committee, the Foreign Relations Committee, it’s putting together a good national security team here that the United States deserves. He should be the leader of it, as the Secretary of State, senior member of the cabinet, he's going to develop those good working relationships across the river with the Pentagon and down the street at the White House.

Steve Scully: Admiral, you get the final word. What's your advice to the incoming Secretary of State?

Admiral Roughead: For the incoming Secretary of State, I'll echo what the ambassador said, but it's a complex world. And I think that there are some conditions, as we've talked about earlier, that open up some avenues where real progress can be made, whether it's in the Middle East, continued support to Ukraine, so that it continues to push Russia farther back on its heels, and to really look at the Western Pacific in a way that China takes notice.

Steve Scully: Former Chief of Naval Operations, Admiral Gary Roughead, Ambassador John Sullivan here at USIP. To both of you, thank you so much for being with us.