U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: Well, joining us now is Tom Sheehy. He is the USIP's Africa Center distinguished fellow. He joins us now. Good morning, Tom, how are you?

Thomas Sheehy: I'm doing great. Laura, thank you.

Laura Coates: You know Biden had a historic trip to Angola, and with all the news that was coming in, I fear that the consequences of this may have been overlooked. Let's talk about why he went and what came of the trip.

Thomas Sheehy: Sure, Laura. This was a trip that he had promised to make in 2022 and it had been delayed. He is the first U.S. president to visit Africa in nine years, so it's been long overdue. And we're in a geopolitical competition, and we've got the president of China routinely visiting African countries. Presidents, heads of state all over the world are visiting Africa because they realize the geopolitical, economic implications. And so the trip was criticized that President Biden was a lame duck, obviously. But on balance, I think we're very glad he went.

Laura Coates: Why Angola?

Thomas Sheehy: Angola has been a country — a very good question. There's 54 countries in Africa, and traditionally, the U.S. president has limited himself to a few countries. There's never been a U.S. president in Angola. So this was a first. Angola is a country that overcame a terrible war during the Cold War, has been peaceful, the economy has been growing fairly well over the last 10 years, and it is home to what's called the Lobito Corridor, which is a rail line which goes into Congo and Zambia and is absolutely critical for the critical minerals that very much are driving the modern economy.

Laura Coates: In his visit, was something anticipated as a deliverable that might come out of this particular meeting?

Thomas Sheehy: Well, the big focus, Laura, has been on this Lobito Corridor. And so this is an infrastructure project that the U.S. has been working on for the last couple of years. Traditionally, the U.S. hasn't been much involved in infrastructure in Africa. And as we all know, China has been going gangbusters, building infrastructure over the last 20 years. And so, this is really a new attempt to engage with Africa. It is, yes, it's a deliverable in the sense that the U.S. is providing support, but it's only going to succeed if it attracts private sector investment. So it's a different model than what China is trying to do. I think it's the right model, it relies on the private sector, but there's going to be a lot of challenges to make sure it works. And if it does work, it promises economic development in Africa, but also a more direct route for critical minerals: cobalt and lithium and copper, all the things we need for our economy or the defense industrial base. A much more direct route to Europe and the United States.

Laura Coates: So is there the investment or the appetite among, you know, non-governmental agencies and the private sector to invest in this? I mean, talking about, obviously the three: Zambian, DRC and also Angola as part of it. Is there the appetite?

Thomas Sheehy: To be determined. To be honest, these are very difficult investment climates. If they weren't, U.S. companies would have been there long ago. But traditionally, U.S. companies have shied away from Africa for all the reasons you can imagine: political instability, lack of infrastructure, poor rule of law. And so this is a hope that by working with the three governments, by having the U.S. government directly involved, we can create a certain measure of confidence that U.S. companies can come in and invest and find their investment safe. Now this is a complex situation. We're talking about critical minerals. The prices of minerals fluctuate greatly, so you can't defy the economics. But on balance, I think most people feel like this is a good investment. We're heavily dependent on China for all these critical minerals. It's not a good situation for our national security. So it's a pretty modest investment to see if this model can work, and so it's key to diversifying our critical mineral supply chains.

Laura Coates: Angola, as I understand it, is not going to abandon its economic engagement with China, right? That's pretty deep seated. But can the U.S. be confident that it could offer higher development and business investment than China? Is that going to be a conflict for our interest in partnering with Angola, their sustained relationship with China?

Thomas Sheehy: Yeah, great question. It's always a challenge. And so the Chinese model has been to go and invest, lend money to the government, the government gets heavily indebted, and the Chinese practices are really substandard in terms of environment, labor, transparency. And so what the U.S. is trying to do, U.S. companies simply don't operate that way. They can't. It's against the law. It's against their shareholder interest. It's bad publicity. And so the hope is that we can operate in the same environment and raise the standards, and ultimately have Africans expect higher standards of their investors. And they are starting to push back on China, demanding better terms. And so we are very far behind here. China dominates many of these countries economically, with infrastructure, with concessions, critical mineral concessions. And so, we're late to the game, but I think again, most people believe it's worth a try, and trying to bring in higher standard investment, and hopefully we can raise the level overall. But, it's going to be a challenge, because we can't be naive and China plays by different rules. And our hope is that Africans prefer U.S. investment, and they do. Africans desperately want U.S. investors, because they realize it's better technology and better standards.

Laura Coates: Are there American allies that are equally invested in the Lobito corridor?

Thomas Sheehy: Yes. And so that's one of the realizations that the current administration has is that the U.S. can't go it alone. We simply don't have U.S. mining companies. We don't have the industry. We don't have relations in Africa. Other countries do. So the Europeans, Italy's been very involved in in the Lobito corridor, the European Union, Korea, which is a major electric battery manufacturer, and so there's great interest. And so there's been a couple of initiatives to make this a joint effort. And I think that's the right play, again because the U.S. just doesn't have the resources and the history and the context. But working with some of these allies, I think we can compete against China.

Laura Coates: Really important to get this information. Thank you for joining us. Thomas Sheehy, distinguished fellow at USIP, thank you.

Thomas Sheehy: Oh, it's been a pleasure. Laura, thank you.