Following its formation in 2007, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) emerged as one of Pakistan’s deadliest militant organizations. Military efforts severely curtailed the TTP’s ability to launch attacks by 2016, but recent signs—including a deadly attack in Quetta on April 21—suggest the group is attempting to rebuild its operational capacity. This report charts the rise and decline of the TTP and explores options for the Pakistani state, with cooperation and support from the United States, to stifle its resurgence.

A Pakistani soldier surveys what used to be the headquarters of Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP leader who was killed in March 2010. (Pir Zubair Shah/New York Times)
A Pakistani soldier surveys what used to be the headquarters of Baitullah Mehsud, the TTP leader who was killed in March 2010. (Pir Zubair Shah/New York Times)

Summary

  • Established in 2007, the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP) became one of Pakistan’s deadliest militant organizations, notorious for its brutal attacks against civilians and the Pakistani state. By 2015, a U.S. drone campaign and Pakistani military operations had destroyed much of the TTP’s organizational coherence and capacity.
  • While the TTP’s lethality remains low, a recent uptick in the number of its attacks, propaganda releases, attempts to intimidate local populations, and mergers with prior splinter groups suggest that the TTP is attempting to revive itself.
  • Multiple factors may facilitate this ambition. These include the Afghan Taliban’s potential political ascendency in a post–peace agreement Afghanistan, which may enable the TTP to redeploy its resources within Pakistan, and the potential for TTP to deepen its links with other militant groups such as the regional affiliates of al-Qaeda and the Islamic State.
  • Thwarting the chances of the TTP’s revival requires a multidimensional approach that goes beyond kinetic operations and renders the group’s message irrelevant. Efforts need to prioritize investment in countering violent extremism programs, enhancing the rule of law and access to essential public goods, and creating mechanisms to address legitimate grievances peacefully.

About the Report

Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), once one of Pakistan’s most deadly militant groups, experienced a steady decline due to sustained counterterrorism pressure and internal fragmentation. This report, supported by the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace and drawing on datasets of militant violence and the TTP’s own statements, traces the evolution of TTP thus far and assesses factors that could shape the group’s future trajectory.

About the Author

Amira Jadoon is an assistant professor at the Combating Terrorism Center and the Department of Social Sciences at the U.S. Military Academy at West Point. She specializes in international security, economic statecraft, political violence, and terrorism. The views expressed in this article are the author’s and do not necessarily reflect those of the Combating Terrorism Center, the U.S. Military Academy, the U.S. Department of Defense, or the U.S. government.


Related Publications

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Will the IMF’s $7 Billion Bailout Stabilize Pakistan’s Economy?

Wednesday, September 25, 2024

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has approved a $7 billion loan for Pakistan aimed at helping the South Asian nation stabilize its economy. After assuming power earlier this year, Pakistan’s new coalition government led by the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) had approached the IMF for the 25th time for a loan. On September 12, Pakistani Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif said his country had met all the conditions set by the IMF to qualify for a new loan. And on September 25, the IMF signed a formal approval of the loan.

Type: Question and Answer

Economics

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Toward a Durable India-Pakistan Peace: A Roadmap through Trade

Thursday, June 27, 2024

Despite a three-year long cease-fire along their contested border, trade and civil society engagement between India and Pakistan has dwindled, exacerbating the fragility of their relationship. With recently re-elected governments now in place in both countries, there is a window of opportunity to rekindle trade to bolster their fragile peace, support economic stability in Pakistan, create large markets and high-quality jobs on both sides, and open doors for diplomatic engagement that could eventually lead to progress on more contentious issues.

Type: Analysis

Economics

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

How Have India’s Neighbors Reacted to Its Election?

Tuesday, June 25, 2024

Narendra Modi was sworn in on June 9 for his third consecutive term as India’s prime minister. Public polls had predicted a sweeping majority for Modi, so it came as some surprise that his Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) lost ground with voters and had to rely on coalition partners to form a ruling government. Although India’s elections were fought mainly on domestic policy issues, there were important exceptions and Modi’s electoral setback could have implications for India’s regional and global policies.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

What Does Further Expansion Mean for the Shanghai Cooperation Organization?

Thursday, May 30, 2024

Last week, foreign ministers from member-states of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) gathered in Astana, Kazakhstan. The nine-member SCO — made up of China, India, Russia, Pakistan, Iran, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan and Uzbekistan — represents one of the largest regional organizations in the world. And with the SCO’s annual heads-of-state summit slated for early July, the ministers’ meeting offers an important glimpse into the group’s priorities going forward. USIP’s Bates Gill and Carla Freeman examine how regional security made its way to the top of the agenda, China’s evolving role in Central Asia and why SCO expansion has led to frustrations among member states.

Type: Question and Answer

Global Policy

View All Publications