A USIP Fact Sheet
Following 10 years of gradual progress on political and economic liberalization—and a landslide victory for the National League for Democracy in the 2020 election—the Burmese army took power in a coup on February 1, 2021. The army quickly reversed hard-won progress toward democracy and human rights in Burma. In response, millions of people from all walks of life joined a civil disobedience movement and mass public protests across the country to prevent the military from consolidating power—as well as demands to reinstate the elected government and enact constitutional reform to constrain the military. The army, in turn, used violent force to crack down on the movement, killing scores of protesters and creating an environment of chaos and terror.
Burma has endured more than 75 years of civil war, but the coup has radically shifted the conflict landscape in Burma, spurring the emergence of new armed actors and strengthening Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) that have fought the Burmese military for decades. The entire country is now engulfed in war and is the site of one of the world’s greatest humanitarian crises with tens of thousands killed. Nearly one-third of the population faces acute food insecurity, and over five million people are displaced or seeking asylum. These include nearly one million Rohingya in Bangladesh who face no chance of dignified return to Burma as long as the genocidal junta regime is in power.
Over four years into the conflict, violence has escalated dramatically, and the resistance movement continues to make steady gains against demoralized and depleted junta forces, but there is no resolution in sight. With the military stretched thin and facing increasingly sophisticated and coordinated armed groups on multiple fronts, the resistance sees this an historic opportunity to eliminate the country’s primary agent of instability – the Burmese military – from power. The junta is at its weakest point in decades as a result of historic losses, but it has been able to sustain itself through forced conscription, powerful systems of internal control, and extractive economic policies that generate up to $5 billion in foreign exchange annually. It has also tilted towards China, which has exerted pressure on resistance forces to help shore up the military’s position with an eye towards consolidating Chinese influence in the India Ocean region – a direct threat to U.S. interests in a free and open Indo-Pacific.
The junta now controls less than 21% of Burma’s territory. In areas liberated from the military junta, resistance forces have established local governance systems, law enforcement institutions, schools, and health infrastructure to support local communities. Political dialogue between resistance actors that aim to achieve a shared vision for the future continue but have failed to achieve a clear political roadmap that could unite the resistance movement.
Meanwhile, criminal actors and junta-aligned militias have forged new alliances in the border areas with China and Thailand to conduct massive illicit business. Since the coup, Burma has become the world’s largest source of opium, methamphetamines and cyberscam operations, which directly threaten U.S. national security. Cyberscam operations in Burma now yield $15 billion in annual revenue.
USIP’s Work
Active in Burma since 2012, USIP addresses the threat to U.S. national interests posed by the junta’s ongoing war against the people of Burma with the support of malign actors such as China and Russia. Because of instability caused by the coup, Burma has become a global epicenter of transnational cyberscam operations and narcotics production, all of which directly harm Americans and U.S. national security interests. USIP tracks and exposes the impact of China’s activities in the country, which uses Burma to establish its dominance in the Indian Ocean region. The People’s Republic of China (PRC) props up the withering Burmese military so that it can extract valuable resources, including rare earths, oil, gas, and critical minerals, project maritime power in the Indian Ocean, and undermine U.S. economic and security initiatives. USIP supports efforts to end the Burmese military’s atrocities, to promote stability, and to crack down on transnational criminal actors who steal billions of dollars from Americans by deploying sophisticated online scams under the protection of the Burmese military, and who produce opium, fentanyl and methamphetamines.
USIP’s initiatives include: supporting dialogue and negotiations towards lasting peace in Burma; supporting local community security initiatives and faith-based groups in their efforts to protect communities and reduce violence; exposing the growing presence of China-linked criminal networks and providing pragmatic options for responding to threats from transnational organized crime which directly impact U.S. national security; strengthening the knowledge and capacity of law enforcement officials and civil society to address threats from malign criminal actors that target Americans and providing analysis of the ongoing conflict, while engaging with regional actors, including India and ASEAN.