At the end of 2024, the annual U.S. Department of Defense report on military and security developments in China reinforced evolving assessments of China’s rapid nuclear expansion with an alarming projection: The U.S. expects China to have 1,000 nuclear warheads by 2030 despite having maintained a nuclear arsenal of approximately 300 warheads for decades.

Type: Analysis

The direct threat that China poses to Taiwan continues to rise and is far more severe and serious today than ever before. In addition to the increasing daily tempo of gray-zone coercion and armed provocations all around Taiwan, the specter of an outright attack or naval blockade by China looms larger than at any other time in the post-Cold War era.

Type: Analysis

Syria is witnessing the most significant sectarian violence since the fall of the Assad regime on December 8, 2024. Unverified estimates put the death toll over 1,000, with civilians comprising the vast majority of those killed. Clashes have largely been centered in Alawite strongholds along Syria’s Mediterranean coast, from the city of Tartus north to Latakia. The violence prompted large-scale protests in Damascus and other cities, while many anxious Alawite families have fled their homes along the coast. Syria’s interim president, Ahmed al-Shara, has called for “civil peace” and announced the launching of an independent committee to investigate the killings.

Type: Question and Answer

The strategic costs to China incurred by a comprehensive military campaign to compel unification with Taiwan likely are myriad and exorbitant. However, Taiwan’s prominent position in the Chinese Communist Party’s (CCP) core-interest hierarchy complicates assessments of the extent to which any cost drive the party’s decisions regarding use of force for unification. Beijing’s calculation of costs of action versus perceived cost of restraint is a foremost consideration in any Chinese use-of-force equation, and therefore critical in weighing U.S. options for deterring Chinese military action against Taiwan.

Type: Analysis