August 21, 2012

On August 20, Ethiopia’s long-time prime minister, Meles Zenawi, died from an illness.  USIP’s Jon Temin examines what it means for Ethiopia, the two Sudans and U.S. interests in the region.

With the PM's death, what kind of loss is this for Ethiopia? What will be his legacy?

Prime Minister Meles leaves behind a legacy that is complicated and somewhat contradictory. During his reign Ethiopia fought a devastating war with Eritrea, democratic space was curtailed and human rights abuses were numerous. On the other hand, Meles oversaw impressive economic growth that lifted millions of Ethiopians out of poverty (Ethiopia is among the world leaders in reaching some of the UN’s Millennium Development Goals). He was deeply engaged on a range of African affairs and an eloquent spokesman for the continent, though some suggested that his involvement in the affairs of troubled neighboring countries – including Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia – was intended to distract from Ethiopia’s domestic concerns and the state’s authoritarian tendencies.

What are the implications for the region, particularly South Sudan, Sudan and Somalia?

Meles’ death creates a significant void, particularly concerning Sudan and South Sudan. He was very involved in the ongoing negotiations between Sudan and South Sudan on the details of their split, largely because, unlike almost all other interlocutors, he was seen as a relatively neutral, trusted intermediary by leaders from both countries (part of the reason those negotiations are held in Ethiopia. He was also the driving force behind the deployment of the United Nations Interim Security Force for Abyei (UNISFA), a UN peacekeeping mission comprised solely of Ethiopian troops that is patrolling the contested Abyei region on the Sudan-South Sudan border. Ethiopia has been deeply involved in Somalia, including two military invasions in recent years that were bitterly opposed by many Somalis. Ethiopia is also at the heart of sometimes contentious negotiations over the flow of the Nile River, as it constructs major hydroelectric dams that have implications for downstream countries. With Somalia, Sudan, South Sudan, and arch-rival Eritrea as neighbors, Ethiopia is at the center of a difficult neighborhood.

What are the implications for Africa more broadly?

In addition to his engagement with neighboring countries, Meles was very involved in the growth and development of the African Union, which has its headquarters in Addis Ababa (it was rumored that he had aspirations to serve as chair of the AU after stepping down as prime minister). He was particularly engaged on climate change issues, which otherwise attracts little attention from African leaders. In part because of his engagement on such global issues, Meles was popular among international heads of state – his last public appearance was at the G20 meeting in Mexico in June. It remains to be seen which African leaders will gain a greater global profile In Meles’ absence.

What kind of relationship does the U.S. have with the Ethiopian government? Why is this significant for the U.S.?

Under Meles’ leadership U.S.-Ethiopia ties have been strong, and that relationship is likely to continue. The U.S. and Ethiopia have closely collaborated on Sudan, South Sudan and Somalia issues. Indeed, Ethiopia’s military incursions into Somalia are widely viewed to have been blessed by the U.S. Ethiopia is a major recipient of U.S. humanitarian and development assistance, especially funds to combat Ethiopia’s often severe droughts and its significant HIV/AIDS epidemic. To the U.S., Ethiopia is seen as an island of relative stability in the difficult neighborhood described above, and Meles personally had proven his ability to get things done, for example the timely and effective deployment of UNISFA in Abyei.