Sudan’s elections, scheduled to take place by July 2009, are a major milestone of the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA). Domestic and international institutions are already planning for the elections, although many legal and logistical issues must be resolved before they take place. The U.S. Institute of Peace convened a meeting of the Sudan Peace Forum on July 13, 2007 to discuss the major tasks remaining in the organization of elections. The following USIPeace Briefing summarizes the status of electoral preparations and identifies critical conditions to ensure their timely organization.

Key Tasks for the Organization of Elections

General elections are scheduled to take place concurrently on six levels: for the presidencies of the Government of National Unity (GNU) and the Government of Southern Sudan (GOSS); for the National Assembly and the South Sudan Legislative Assembly; and for the governorships and state legislatures in all 25 states. Before these elections take place, Sudan must conduct a census; clarify or pass laws regarding political parties and the conduct of the election; embark upon voter registration, civic education, and training of election monitors and polling agents; and confirm the election date.

Conducting the Census

The census is critical to the organization of elections and the subsequent governing structure of the country. While attaining more accurate population data will help to verify voter registration figures, the CPA states that the results of the census shall be used to determine the power sharing percentages of the north and south at the national level. CPA implementation modalities called for a pilot census to be conducted prior to the full census. In turn, the lessons learned during the pilot census will determine the logistical and procedural approaches to use for the full census. The full census will take place over a two-week time period in all of Sudan’s 25 states. An advantage of limiting the census to two weeks is that it allows people to be counted in the areas they are living, even if temporarily, rather than requiring them to return to their home region to be counted. This is particularly important given the presence of large numbers of internally displaced persons. The tight timeframe also prevents the double counting of nomadic groups.

Originally scheduled for July 2007, the census has been delayed due to financial shortfalls. The failure of the Government of National Unity (GNU) to promptly deliver funds for the pilot census postponed the exercise until April 2007, and continued delays in GNU funding for conducting the full census have pushed its start to at least January 2008. Even this new date is uncertain: although the GNU has committed to releasing $7.5 million a month between June and September 2007 for a total of $30 million, by the end of June it had only released $3 million. If the rest of the money is not released by the end of September, it will not be possible to hold the census in January. This raises concerns because the census needs to be completed before the start of the rainy season in late March to enable the census enumerators to travel throughout the country. In addition, if the conflict in Darfur is not resolved before the census begins, the results may be compromised. The pilot census, which included areas in Darfur, is expected to yield information on how the census may be effectively conducted in the region and which methods enumerators should use to count people in an insecure environment.

Clarification of the Political Parties Act

The Political Parties Act, passed in January 2007—nearly two years behind schedule—must be clarified. The Act, which stipulates that a political party’s manifesto shall not conflict with either the CPA or the 2005 Interim National Constitution, also states that a political parties council is to be established and requires all parties to register with it within 90 days of its passage. As this council has still not been created, parties could not comply with the Act’s requirement to register within 90 days (or by April 2007). Indeed, many parties registered before this Act was passed, and do not consider it necessary to register again. Thus, the law may need to be amended to clarify questions regarding proper party registration.

The National Election Law and the Electoral Commission

A national election law to specify election rules and procedures, originally anticipated in January 2006, has been delayed. Political parties have presented several drafts of the law for discussion, and while the involvement of the parties is seen as encouraging, these drafts will need to be reconciled. The major unresolved issue is the type of electoral system to adopt for Sudan. Three options are under consideration: a constituency-based “first past the post” system, similar to that of the United States; a proportional representation system; or a mixed system that combines elements of each system. The law will also need to incorporate international standards to which donors expect Sudan to adhere. Currently, many experts believe that the law may be presented and debated when the National Assembly reconvenes in October 2007.

According to the CPA, the National Electoral Commission (NEC) is to be created within one month after the adoption of the election law. Seven to nine impartial representatives of the population, who will be selected by the president of the GNU and approved by the first vice president of the GNU/president of the GOSS will serve as members of the commission. Finding the appropriate commission members will be crucial, as the commission is responsible for assuring the organization of elections and will serve as the primary counterpart of international donors.

Voter Education, Monitoring, and Registration

Successful elections cannot take place without the support and participation of the Sudanese people. Focus groups indicate that people in both the north and south support elections and understand their purpose. Voter education is an ongoing process, but organized efforts are expected to begin at least one year before the election. Training of election monitors (who usually come from civil society organizations) and polling agents (who come from political parties) is expected to begin around the same time.

The timing of voter registration will depend on the kind of electoral system chosen. In the event of a constituency-based system, drawing the boundaries will depend on census results, delaying voter registration. On the other hand, should the election law call for a proportional representation or a mixed system, voter registration can begin as soon as it is legally and logistically feasible. Although some have suggested registering voters simultaneously while conducting the census, this has been rejected because of technical difficulties and concerns regarding confidentiality of census data.

Election Timetable

The CPA states that elections must be held by July 2009, but the date has not yet been set. Some donors are concerned that holding the elections in July, which falls in the middle of the rainy season, would disenfranchise southern voters. Moreover, since the constitutions of both the north and the south call for a runoff if a presidential candidate does not obtain more than 50 percent of the vote in the election, planning for this eventuality must take place as well. Currently, donors are discussing the possibility of holding elections in February, which would allow a potential runoff election before the beginning of the rainy season in April. Even after an election date is set, the CPA states that six months before the targeted election date, parties should meet to review the feasibility of holding elections. This makes the precise date of elections dependent on several logistical and structural considerations.