• Understanding the background and visions of Iraq's new leaders is critical to analyzing where the country may go in the future.
• Changes in leadership since Saddam have been revolutionary. Among Iraq's new leaders there are virtually no holdovers from the Ba'th era. A "de-Ba'thification" program to remove the old guard reinforces the divide between those who held office before and those who hold it now.
• The ethnic, sectarian, and regional balance of the leadership has also been reversed since Ba'th times; Sunni dominance is gone, and Shi'ah constitute the largest group, with Kurds and Arab Sunnis making up about a fifth of the leadership. A high percentage of the new leaders are exiles, and most have been shaped by years of opposition to Saddam's regime. Under the Ba'th, affiliation with other parties was prohibited; today's leaders come from a diversity of parties.
• Ideological changes are also dramatic. Under the Ba'th, the vision was of a unified state with an Arab identity, emphasizing economic development, technology, and independence from foreign influence. The newly elected leaders have differing visions. The focus on ethnic and sectarian identity has sharpened; nationalism and a sense of Iraqi identity have been weakened.
• The Kurdish parties make Kurdish identity paramount and seek a highly decentralized federal region that includes Kirkuk. Kurdish leaders are overwhelmingly secular and pro-Western in their orientation.
• Shi'ah leaders have more diverse views. Their primary identity is Iraqi, but their sense of nationalism is weak. The main interest of most Shi'ah leaders is in Islamizing—and reforming—society, in a Shi'ah direction. Because they are a majority, they favor elections and a parliamentary government.
• The secular center has a commitment to an Iraqi identity and a more centralized state, but it is losing ground rapidly. A clear vision for the Sunnis has yet to be articulated, but judging from their campaign literature, many are still wedded to past Ba'th visions.
• One surprising finding is the lack of emphasis on economics. Although new government leaders recognize the need for economic development, they do not make it a priority. This puts them at odds with many of their constituents, who say they want services and security.
• The new politics of communal identity is making compromise on governing difficult. While ethnic and sectarian identities have been an important feature of the Iraqi polity in the past, the new political process (elections, constitution making) is sharpening them. So, too, is the insurgency.
• It is crucial to address fragmentation before it becomes irreversible. One step would be to refocus Iraqis on economic issues, especially the formulation of oil legislation that gives all Iraqi communities a stake in oil resources and an equitable share in their benefits.
• The political process should be slowed to allow politicians to absorb changes and work out compromises, especially in the area of regionalization. Iraqis should be encouraged to mend the political system that is producing polarization—for example, by refining political party regulations and the election law.
• The new political leadership must develop an alternative vision for the future that encourages economic development, a new middle class, and communal tolerance, or the incipient fragmentation will become a reality.

For the english version of this report, click here.