This report examines the obstacles to change and considers the roles of key domestic actors, their strategies, and their interests in a new Zimbabwe. It assesses the current mechanisms for change and potential outcomes.
Summary
- Since Zimbabwe's independence in 1980, the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union–Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF) government has used its anti-colonial legacy and its role in the war of liberation to build a nationalist platform with a stated commitment to rectify colonial injustices—a theme that garners support from many leaders in developing countries and Zimbabwe's rural populace.
- ZANU-PF has relied on the use of violence and coercive tactics to consolidate and maintain its power for more than two decades. The primary opposition party following independence, the Zimbabwe African People's Union (ZAPU) was coercively merged into ZANU-PF in 1987.
- A new rise of opposition politics in the late 1990s through the civic-born Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) posed the first serious challenge to the ZANU-PF government. In the June 2000 parliamentary elections, the MDC won almost half the contested seats, prompting a strong repressive backlash towards the opposition and its supporters.
- The land occupations and farm takeovers, coupled with the government's fast-track land reform exercise, were premised on the widely agreed need for land reform to address a profoundly disproportionate colonial land tenure system. Although violence and chaos accompanied the process, there appears a widespread societal consensus that this process is largely irreversible. At the same time, there is a strong sentiment that the corruption associated with politicians and their supporters acquiring vast amounts of prime land must be rectified.
- ZANU-PF was declared the winner of the March 2002 presidential elections amid widespread local and international observer claims that the election was "unfree and unfair." The MDC mounted a court challenge to the result and international actors have imposed "smart sanctions" against the regime.
- A severe economic crisis characterized by an acute food shortage has resulted in rolling strikes in almost all sectors of the economy. This crisis builds on years of economic decline resulting from varied internal and external sources, including natural disasters.
- Since March of this year, mass actions have taken the form of job "stayaways," with some attempts at street protest led by the Zimbabwe Congress of Trade Union (ZCTU) and the opposition MDC. They have been widely heeded by the populace, paralyzed the economy, and prompted strong government repression.
- Morgan Tsvangerai, the leader of the opposition MDC, and two other leaders have been charged with treason for allegedly plotting to assassinate President Mugabe. After a June 2–6 stayaway called by MDC, Tsvangerai was arrested and detained under a second treason charge, this time for "seeking to violently overthrow a democratically elected president." If convicted he could be sentenced to death.
- Several attempts have been made to mediate, led by South African and Nigerian presidents. So far no significant progress has been made in the face of the entrenched party positions: President Mugabe has insisted that he be recognized by the opposition as the legitimate president of the country, while the MDC will only enter into dialogue unconditionally.
- Discussions of President Mugabe's early retirement and succession are commonplace; a number of individuals in ZANU-PF, including the speaker of Parliament, Emerson Mnangagwa, and the former finance minister, Simba Makoni, are considered likely successors.
- Several scenarios have been mentioned as strategic forms for transition and possible outcomes. A transitional government with constitutional revisions to electoral law followed by early presidential elections appears to be the most favorable option.
About the Report
After three years of protracted political crisis and precipitous economic decline, what are the prospects for nonviolent change and societal reconstruction in Zimbabwe? This report examines the obstacles to change and considers the roles of key domestic actors, their strategies, and their interests in a new Zimbabwe. It assesses the current mechanisms for change and potential outcomes. The report was commissioned by the Institute's Research and Studies Program and written by three scholar-analysts currently living and working in Zimbabwe. They are not named for reasons of personal security.
The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policies.