This report looks at social fragmentation currently taking place in Central Asia and its possible repercussions for the future of regional cooperation.

This report looks at social fragmentation currently taking place in Central Asia and its possible repercussions for the future of regional cooperation. The first substantive section begins with a brief overview of the Soviet legacy in Central Asia and its contribution to the region's ethnic and social divisions, and then examines the current state of ethnic and religious tensions in the independent Central Asian states following the Soviet Union's demise; this section also looks at the lack of a unified communications space in the region and how it perpetuates Central Asia's social divisions. Central Asian political leaders' attempts to unify their newly independent states through appeals to each state's distinct interpretation of its role in the region's history and culture is the focus of the next section of this study, which reveals that such nation-building efforts have served only to contribute to Central Asia's further polarization and fragmentation. This section is followed by a brief case study of conflict in the Ferghana Valley and its causes. The penultimate section of this study addresses the prospects for regional cooperation among the Central Asian states to mitigate such tensions, with a special emphasis on sustainable development initiatives. The study concludes with recommendations for U.S. policymakers.

Anara Tabyshalieva conducted the initial research for this study during her 1996–97 Jennings Randolph fellowship at the United States Institute of Peace. Currently she is director of the Institute for Regional Studies and a lecturer at Kyrgyz-Slavonic University. In 1995 she was the recipient of a grant from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation in support of her research on "The Women's Question in Central Asia: Historical Roots of Contemporary Contradictions," and a grant from HIVOS (Holland) for researching a group project entitled "Kyrgyzstan: Factors of Destabilization and Stabilization of Ethno-Religious Peace."


Latest Research & Analysis

What the DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal Means for the U.S. and Africa’s Mineral-Rich Great Lakes Region

What the DRC-Rwanda Peace Deal Means for the U.S. and Africa’s Mineral-Rich Great Lakes Region

Thursday, July 3, 2025

Last Friday, the foreign ministers of Rwanda and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) met in Washington to sign an agreement to end 30 years of conflict in Africa’s Great Lakes region. The peace deal was accompanied by commitments to build a “regional economic integration framework” and promises of U.S. investment in eastern DRC’s abundant critical mineral reserves, among other commercial agreements.

Type: Question and Answer

The 2022 Pelosi Visit to Taiwan: Assessing US-China Signaling and Action-Reaction Dynamics

The 2022 Pelosi Visit to Taiwan: Assessing US-China Signaling and Action-Reaction Dynamics

Monday, July 7, 2025

In recent years, the United States and the People’s Republic of China (PRC) have found it particularly challenging to interpret one another’s foreign policy signals. Misinterpretation of each other’s signaling may contribute to a bilateral action-reaction dynamic and can intensify into an action-reaction cycle and escalation spiral.

Type: Report

Philippines: Former Combatants Help Keep the Peace During Recent Polls

Philippines: Former Combatants Help Keep the Peace During Recent Polls

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

By: Haroro Ingram, Country Director, Philippines, USIP

For decades, the struggle for peace in the Philippines’ southernmost island of Mindanao has been characterized by armed conflict between the Philippines government and Moro separatist groups, like the Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF), and cycles of failed peace processes. The historic 2014 peace agreement between the Philippines government and MILF led to the granting of greater self-governance with the creation of the Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao (BARMM) five years later. What has followed since is an unprecedented, yet very fragile, period of peace and stability.

Type: Analysis

With Cease-fire Holding, Can Israel and Iran Move Toward De-escalation?

With Cease-fire Holding, Can Israel and Iran Move Toward De-escalation?

Wednesday, June 25, 2025

Israel’s stunning and sophisticated June 13 attack on Iran set off a worrying 12-day escalatory spiral. Iran responded in short order with ballistic missile and drone strikes, which led to a series of tit-for-tat exchanges between the two sides. A cease-fire is now in place -- but will it hold?

Type: Analysis

What Are the Limits of U.S.-India Security Burden-Sharing in the Indian Ocean?

What Are the Limits of U.S.-India Security Burden-Sharing in the Indian Ocean?

Monday, June 23, 2025

By: Nilanthi Samaranayake, Adjunct Fellow, East-West Center

When viewing U.S. partnerships in the maritime domain, relations with India, in particular, have thrived — especially over the past decade. Moreover, the partnership enjoys bipartisan support in the United States. Indications after Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the White House in February 2025 are that U.S.-India security relations will continue to be strong in the second Trump administration.

Type: Analysis

View All Research & Analysis