The process of decarbonization—that is, the replacement of fossil fuels with non-hydrocarbon-based forms of energy—is essential for meeting the climate goals articulated by international agreements. But in fragile, oil-dependent nations, where hydrocarbon revenues are often a key means of political control, decarbonization can spell the difference between peace and conflict. This report examines the consequences of the sudden loss of oil revenues for fragile, conflict-affected states and provides recommendations for policymakers on how to manage future decarbonization peacefully.

Type: Peaceworks

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Economics;  Environment;  Fragility & Resilience

If the U.S. government wants an edge over China in the Pacific Islands, it needs to facilitate more meetings between the president of the United States and regional leaders, preferably one-on-one. When Pacific Island leaders fly to Beijing, they often have a one-on-one meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping, but such a meeting between the leader of a Pacific Island country and a sitting president of the United States has never taken place. The White House has only conducted joint meetings with Pacific Island leaders. Sometimes even joint meetings don’t make the cut.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

A disputed presidential election in Chad last week is making few global headlines, but poses new risks to African and international efforts to reverse the Sahel region’s spreading instability, conflict and human displacement. Chad is centered in the world’s largest belt of military rule: six nations across Africa that have suffered armed coups since 2020. Among them, Chad is the first to hold elections to restore civilian rule. But a string of setbacks to a fully credible vote has yielded a contested result that risks further domestic conflict and a narrowing of popular legitimacy for the next government, led by the incumbent transitional president, Mahamat Idriss Deby.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & Conflict

As strategic rivalry between China and the United States has intensified in recent years, the Pacific Island region has become a key arena for this geopolitical competition. Pacific Island countries are receiving more bilateral visits, new diplomatic missions, increased media attention and offers of development and security assistance from a greater number of states outside the region than ever before.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Chinese crime syndicates have set up sophisticated online scamming operations throughout Southeast Asia that rake in an estimated $64 billion a year. Relying on forced labor, the scam compounds “look almost like penal colonies,” says USIP’s Jason Tower, adding: “This is happening on an industrial scale.”

Type: Podcast