Summary

• The Ethiopian invasion of Somalia in 2006, supported by the U.S, had the unintentional consequence of fueling splinter insurgent groups including Al-Shabab and Hizbul Islam.
• Currently Somalia faces a humanitarian crisis with 3.6 million people displaced.
• Countering the insurgency and alleviating the humanitarian crisis in Somalia demands a creative rethinking of international policy.
• While the 2008 Dijbouti Accord created a more inclusive Transitional Federal Government (TFG), the international community must weigh whether continued support for the TFG will bring real progress in governance or if it will strengthen popular support for the insurgency.
• If the international community sees support for the TFG as beneficial, they could consider policies including:
  
       -- Flooding Somalia with development aid and investing in civil           society;
       -- Expanding the African Union (AU) peacekeeping mission to include           representation from other Muslim countries;
       -- Finding creative solutions for inter-Somali governance and           reconciliation.
• If the international community calculates that support for the TFG is not beneficial because it will only fuel the insurgency, they should consider a policy of "constructive disengagement," withdrawing support from the TFG and the AU peacekeeping mission, while simultaneously investing in local and regional development projects.

About This Brief

The United States Institute of Peace held a public event in December 2009 to examine how current international policy is affecting the situation in Somalia, and how different policy approaches could promote better governance and help to stabilize this highly volatile situation. Bronwyn E. Bruton, from the Council on Foreign Relations, Abukar Arman, an independent policy analyst, presented their arguments, moderated by David R. Smock of the U.S. Institute of Peace. Stephanie Schwartz, the author, is a senior program assistant with the Center for Mediation and Conflict Resolution, which organized this event and coordinates USIP’s Somalia work.