This report is an expansion of presentations made at a U.S. Institute of Peace Current Issues Briefing on "Global Terrorism after the Iraq War" on June 25, 2003

Summary

  • Whether out of rejection of Western values, envy of American wealth and power, or objections to specific policies, terrorist attacks can be expected to continue in coming years. The elimination of global terrorism remains far off.
  • Many al Qaeda leaders have been captured, and there has been no repeat attack on U.S. territory. Yet terrorist attacks continue in the Middle East, South and Southeast Asia, Africa, and Russia, as very small numbers of terrorists are sufficient to inflict great destruction.
  • While the removal of the Taliban regime in Afghanistan has deprived al Qaeda of a state-based center of operations, the weak central government in Afghanistan has been unable to suppress warlordism and Taliban forces seem to be reemerging.
  • The U.S.-led coalition's defeat of Saddam Hussein rid the Middle East of a brutal regime and eliminated a potential source of state-sponsored terrorism and weapons of mass destruction, but continuing instability in Iraq may make the country a breeding ground for anti-U.S. terrorism.
  • States supporting terrorism, including Syria and Iran, remain threats, and options for military action against them are limited.
  • Regimes in the Muslim world that are friendly to the U.S. continue to be threatened by Islamist militants. At the same time, U.S. support for some authoritarian regimes in the Muslim world provokes resentment over the suppression of democracy and human rights, creating hostility that can be exploited by terrorist groups for recruitment.
  • To address these continuing problems, the next phase of a successful effort against global terrorism should differ in part from the approach of the two years following 9/11. It should augment intelligence and military means with a better strategy for countering militant Islamist ideology.
  • The focus must be on long-term and deep-seated issues, including democratization, economic growth, and educational reform in the Muslim world. The development of more open societies and increased prosperity are key goals.
  • To realize these goals, U.S. policy should concentrate on building consensus and enhancing international cooperation, strengthening law enforcement and the rule of law, applying cautious pressure for reform in Muslim states, encouraging moderate Islamic voices, and achieving political stability and economic reconstruction in Iraq and Afghanistan.
  • With effective policies, global terrorism may diminish over time, but at present public opinion has turned sharply against the United States in much of the Muslim world. Understanding that the problem is the hostile ideology of militant Islam, not just the actions of a conspiratorial group, or Islam as a whole, is the first step toward formulating an effective, long-term anti-terrorism strategy.

About the Report

This report is an expansion of presentations made at a U.S. Institute of Peace Current Issues Briefing on "Global Terrorism after the Iraq War" on June 25, 2003. Daniel Benjamin is senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, former director for counter-terrorism at the National Security Council, and former senior fellow, U.S. Institute of Peace. He has also served as Berlin bureau chief for the Wall Street Journal and Germany correspondent for Time. Martha Crenshaw is Colin and Nancy Campbell professor of global issues and democratic thought and professor of government at Wesleyan University and former grantee, U.S. Institute of Peace. She is also a member of the Brookings Institution Task Force on U.S. Policy Towards the Islamic World. Daniel Byman is assistant professor, Security Studies Program, Georgetown University, and non-resident senior fellow, Saban Center for Middle East Policy, Brookings Institution. He was a professional staff member with the Joint 9/11 Inquiry Staff of the House and Senate Intelligence Committees and is a consultant to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks upon the United States.

The panel was chaired by Paul Stares, director of the Institute's Research and Studies Program. The meeting was organized by Joseph Klaits, director of the Institute's Jennings Randolph Fellowship Program, who compiled and edited this report.

The views expressed in this report do not necessarily reflect views of the United States Institute of Peace, which does not advocate specific policies.

Related Publications

Iraq Mission Not Over for U.S., Senator Ernst Says

Iraq Mission Not Over for U.S., Senator Ernst Says

Monday, July 30, 2018

By: Fred Strasser

U.S. Senator Joni Ernst said that despite Americans’ weariness with U.S. involvement in Iraq, concerns about terrorism and regional stability make a continuing military commitment in the country a necessity. “Our first and our highest priority must be to ensure that the Iraqi government has the equipment and the training to conduct sustained and resilient counterterrorism operations,” Ernst said at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

Global Policy

Iraq’s Protests Show the Fragility that Gave Rise to ISIS Remains

Iraq’s Protests Show the Fragility that Gave Rise to ISIS Remains

Thursday, July 19, 2018

By: Sarhang Hamasaeed

In recent weeks, tens of thousands of Iraqis in southern provinces of the country took to the streets to demand action over the lack of basic services and jobs. The protests began in the oil-rich Basra province, where people struggle with lack of clean water and electricity—amid temperatures exceeding 120 degrees—and economic injustice, among other challenges.

Democracy & Governance; Fragility & Resilience

USIP-Commissioned Research Among Iraqi Minority Communities

USIP-Commissioned Research Among Iraqi Minority Communities

Friday, June 29, 2018

USIP has produced five studies of minorities’ perceptions on reconciliation in the Nineveh province, including, Christian, Eyzidi (Yazidi), Sabean-Mandaean, Shabak and Turkomen communities. These assessments provide insights into conflict drivers and demands of these communities and include key findings, which have been shared with international and national stakeholders including the U.S. Government and the Government of Iraq.

Religion

Iraq’s Election Leaves Iran’s Influence Intact

Iraq’s Election Leaves Iran’s Influence Intact

Thursday, May 31, 2018

By: Dr. Elie Abouaoun

As Iraq shapes a government from its May 12 election, the indecisive electoral outcome again will leave Iran in a position to affect both the choice of a prime minister, and the tenor of the underlying administration. How Iran wields that influence is likely to depend on how well the European Union is able to defend the Iran nuclear accord following the United States’ withdrawal.

Democracy & Governance

View All Publications