Days after accusing the United States of pressuring the Honduran armed forces into removing her from office, Honduran President Xiomara Castro told hundreds of her followers in mid-September that she would not allow “another coup” to happen in Honduras. Her husband, Manuel Zelaya, was ousted in a 2009 military coup. The 112-year-old U.S.-Honduran extradition treaty, she said, was the instrument used by the U.S. to coerce the military into such a plot, justifying her decision to unilaterally end the treaty.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance

As Beijing ratchets up military pressure along the Strait, Taiwan remains “the one area where we are most likely to see … a direct confrontation between the United States and China” because a conflict “would affect a lot of our allies [like] Japan, South Korea and the Philippines,” says USIP’s Dean Cheng. 

Type: Podcast

Malgré l’instabilité politique et les bouleversements sociaux les plus graves de son histoire au cours de la dernière décennie, Haïti a désormais l’occasion d’aller de l’avant. La sélection d’un Premier ministre efficace par un Conseil présidentiel de transition offre au pays une chance de rétablir la sécurité et d’organiser des élections pour la première fois depuis 2016. Mais pour que les progrès soient durables, il faudra un mélange de leadership transitoire et de leadership transformationnel. Et cela signifie mobiliser et respecter le rôle essentiel des femmes, qui sont actuellement sous-représentées à tous les niveaux de gouvernement et d’influence.

Type: Analysis

Democracy & Governance;  Gender

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan would be an extremely difficult military, complex operation. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) has been thinking seriously since the early 2000s about what such a landing would require. For over two decades, its force development efforts have been focused on the weapons, equipment, doctrine and operational concepts required to conquer the island in the face of full U.S. military intervention. The PLA has made considerable progress toward that goal and may deem itself fully capable by the 2027 force development target set by Xi Jinping.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Since 2014, Ukraine has been trying to repel escalating Russian aggression. But while Russia is a much larger country, with far more weaponry and manpower, their efforts to undermine Ukrainian state sovereignty extend far beyond armed combat. The Kremlin has used its close ties to the Russian Orthodox Church (ROC) to weaponize religion in favor of Russian interests.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Religion