The backdrop: a security rivalry between India and Pakistan in place since the 1947 partition of British India. The risk: nuclear catastrophe. Because the consequences of such an outcome are so dire, even the small chance of a nuclear conflict is worth trying to minimize. This report assesses whether satellite imagery and remote sensing technology, administered by a trusted third party, could ease the pressures and thus lessen the risk of disaster on the subcontinent.

Summary

  • Structural political and security factors generate persistent security competition on the South Asian subcontinent. 
  • This competition in turn creates a small but difficult-to-close window for nuclear catastrophe.
  • However unlikely, deployment of tactical nuclear weapons can open the door to inadvertent escalation or unauthorized use or theft. Any of these outcomes would be a catastrophe for the region and the world.
  • The risk of catastrophe, though low, is more likely to grow than shrink in the short term. Indian political discourse about using conventional forces to punish Pakistan if necessary has sharpened. Growing disparities between India and Pakistan will exacerbate the degree to which Pakistan perceives a threat from India.
  • The US role in South Asia as an honest broker may be jeopardized by its estrangement from Pakistan and growing relationship with India. 
  • Traditional confidence-building measures have not generated enough goodwill to ease security competition between the two countries.
  • Technological advances in commercially available imagery are a potential avenue for reducing nuclear risk. A handful of proposals in the late 1990s and early 2000s suggested a cooperative aerial monitoring agreement.
  • These proposals argued that such an arrangement would build confidence, lower the chances of inadvertent escalation, and decrease Pakistani incentives to deploy weapons in ways that endangered regional security.

About the Report

This report examines U.S. concerns regarding India-Pakistan security competition and assesses whether new and emerging technology could mitigate the risks of inadvertent escalation or the unauthorized use or theft of nuclear materials on the subcontinent. It is supported by the Asia Center at the United States Institute of Peace. The analysis and opinion expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official policy or position of the intelligence community, Department of Defense, Department of State, or the U.S. Government.

About the Author

Jay Wise was a Jennings Randolph Senior Fellow at USIP. Before that, he served as director for Pakistan at the National Security Council, worked for the Department of Defense on Afghanistan and Pakistan and counterterrorism issues, served as a director for Pakistan in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, and was deployed several times for the Department of Defense, including most recently to Afghanistan as a senior advisor in 2014–15. He is currently employed at the State Department.

Related Publications

As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

As Fragile Kashmir Cease-Fire Turns Three, Here’s How to Keep it Alive

Wednesday, February 21, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

At midnight on the night of February 24-25, 2021, India and Pakistan reinstated a cease-fire that covered their security forces operating “along the Line of Control (LOC) and all other sectors” in Kashmir, the disputed territory that has been at the center of the India-Pakistan conflict since 1947. While the third anniversary of that agreement is a notable landmark in the history of India-Pakistan cease-fires, the 2021 cease-fire is fragile and needs bolstering to be maintained.

Type: Analysis

Global Policy

Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

Understanding Pakistan’s Election Results

Tuesday, February 13, 2024

By: Asfandyar Mir, Ph.D.;  Tamanna Salikuddin

Days after Pakistan’s February 8 general election, the Election Commission of Pakistan released the official results confirming a major political upset. Contrary to what most political pundits and observers had predicted, independents aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan’s Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) won the most seats at the national level, followed by former Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif’s Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N), the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) and the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM). No party won an absolute majority needed to form a government on its own. The resultant uncertainty means the United States may have to contend with a government that is more focused on navigating internal politics and less so on addressing strategic challenges.

Type: Analysis

Global Elections & ConflictGlobal Policy

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s Elections

Tamanna Salikuddin on Pakistan’s Elections

Monday, February 12, 2024

By: Tamanna Salikuddin

Surprisingly, candidates aligned with former Prime Minister Imran Khan won the most seats in Pakistan’s elections. But while voters “have shown their faith in democracy,” the lack of a strong mandate for any specific leader or institution “doesn’t necessarily bode well for [Pakistan’s] stability,” says USIP’s Tamanna Salikuddin.

Type: Podcast

The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned

The 2021 India-Pakistan Ceasefire: Origins, Prospects, and Lessons Learned

Tuesday, February 6, 2024

By: Christopher Clary

The February 2021 ceasefire between India and Pakistan along the Line of Control in Kashmir has—despite occasional violations—turned into one of the longest-lasting in the countries’ 75-year shared history. Yet, as Christopher Clary writes, the ceasefire remains vulnerable to shocks from terrorist attacks, changes in leadership, and shifting regional relations. With the ceasefire approaching its third anniversary, Clary’s report examines the factors that have allowed it to succeed, signs that it may be fraying, and steps that can be taken to sustain it.

Type: Special Report

Peace Processes

View All Publications