When Lai Ching-te was inaugurated as Taiwan’s new president in May, he thanked supporters “for refusing to be swayed by external forces” and called on China to cease “political and military intimidation.” Days later, Beijing sent its own blunt message to Taiwan’s newly elected president. China’s army, navy, air and rocket forces converged in nearby waters to test its readiness to “reunify” with Taiwan, whether or not the self-ruled island — or any of its international supporters — shared the same objective. Such Chinese military drills around the Taiwan Strait point to one of the world’s most combustible threats, a potential conflict between China and Taiwan that draws in the United States and wreaks havoc with the global economy.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention;  Economics

Iran’s ballistic missile strikes on Israel on October 1 have raised fears of an all-out war in the Middle East. The deepening spiral of bloodshed began on September 17 and 18 with the detonation across Lebanon of thousands of pagers and two-way radios used by Hezbollah operatives — one analyst deemed the unprecedented Israeli operation “the most extensive physical supply chain attack in history.” Ongoing airstrikes in Beirut and southern Lebanon have marked the most significant Israeli barrage in 11 months of tit-for-tat escalation. On September 27, Israel dealt Hezbollah a devastating blow by killing its leader Hassan Nasrallah in an airstrike on a Beirut suburb. Despite reeling from these latest reverses and the evisceration of its command structure, the Shiite militia continues to lob missiles at Israel. Stunned and outraged, Iran — Hezbollah’s patron — fired around 200 ballistic missiles at Israel; at least one person was killed in the West Bank. Iranians are now bracing for Israeli retaliation. The cycle of violence, it appears, is far from over.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

The Myanmar military has endured historic losses over the past three years, leaving it in the weakest state in its history. While there are few paths to recovery — and mounting challenges to its stranglehold on power — the military has managed to stay afloat so far in the face of an expanding revolution against its rule. What are the factors threatening its viability? And what is holding it together? While there is no single explanation, a critical factor is its culture of internal loyalty cultivated over decades of military rule.

Type: Analysis

Conflict Analysis & Prevention

Two weeks ago, Israel announced that halting Hezbollah attacks had become an official goal of its post-October 7 war effort. Since then, Israel conducted a sophisticated clandestine attack on Hezbollah’s communications infrastructure and struck numerous Hezbollah targets in southern Lebanon and the suburbs of Beirut, killing many of Hezbollah’s senior leaders. Then, on Friday, an Israeli airstrike assassinated Hezbollah’s leader, Hassan Nasrallah, who led the group for over 30 years.

Type: Question and Answer

Conflict Analysis & Prevention