When Russia intervened in the Syrian civil conflict in 2015, many analysts believed it marked Russia’s return as an influential actor in the Middle East and North Africa. But the war in Ukraine — and the Russian military’s lackluster performance in that war — has since altered Russia’s standing in the region. Eugene Rumer, director of the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, discusses how Russia has expanded its presence in the Middle East and North Africa in recent years, how the invasion of Ukraine has affected Russia’s geopolitical goals, and trends that might affect Moscow’s commitments there going forward — from overextended military resources to global oil prices.

Related Research & Analysis

Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Amendments: Scare Tactics or Real Shift?

Russia’s Nuclear Doctrine Amendments: Scare Tactics or Real Shift?

Wednesday, January 29, 2025

Since the onset of Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, Moscow has relied on nuclear coercion and compellence to shape Western decision-making. On November 19, 2024, President Vladimir Putin approved amendments to Russia's nuclear doctrine, signaling a lowered threshold for nuclear first use. While the 2024 amendments introduce new details to possible scenarios for Russia’s use of nuclear weapons, they do not constitute a significant departure from previous doctrine.

Type: Analysis

Can India Advance Peace in Ukraine?

Can India Advance Peace in Ukraine?

Tuesday, January 14, 2025

Since the start of Russia’s war in Ukraine, India has worked to protect its strategic relationship with Russia while maintaining its burgeoning ties with the United States and Europe. India’s balancing act was on display earlier this year when Prime Minister Narendra Modi visited Russia in July and made a historic trip to Ukraine the following month. Modi has portrayed a neutral stance on the Ukraine war and positioned India as a key player in any potential peace process.

Type: Question and Answer

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Trajectory

Donald Jensen on the War in Ukraine’s Trajectory

Friday, January 3, 2025

As Ukraine considers the “politically loaded” question of whether to lower the age of military mobilization, Putin increasingly sees the war “not just as a land grab, but as a civilizational battle between Russia and the West,” says USIP’s Donald Jensen, adding: “We should not think that the war is anything close to being settled.”

Type: Podcast

Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

Ukraine: The Inflection Point in the China-Russia Axis

Thursday, December 19, 2024

The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has catalyzed a profound shift in global power dynamics: the deepening of the partnership between China and Russia. This relationship, while rooted in history, represents a significant departure from previous patterns of cooperation. China-Russia ties have evolved from a transactional relationship of convenience to a more durable strategic alignment, while continuing to fall short of a full-blown military alliance. This development challenges traditional Western assumptions about the limits of authoritarian cooperation and may signal the emergence of a new model of international partnership.

Type: Analysis

View All Research & Analysis