When the polls closed in Israel yesterday, Prime Minister Netanyahu thanked his voters for the opportunity to lead Israel for a third time, and announced that he had already begun “forming the broadest coalition possible.” With the vast majority of votes counted, this rapid pursuit of political inclusion is an act of necessity for Netanyahu more than a gesture of magnanimity.
The predictions early in the election season that Netanyahu’s Likud-Yisrael Beiteinu party would score a landslide victory had given way more recently to forecasts of a tight race with the center-left bloc of parties. But even those predictions had failed to capture how close the numbers would be. By first thing this morning in Israel, the Central Election Committee’s results had the right-wing and religious parties that make up Mr. Netanyahu’s current coalition tying at 60 Knesset seats with the Center-Left bloc.
Predictions also clearly had their limitations when it came to the “surprise newcomer” on the political scene. For the past few weeks, the Israeli and international press had been abuzz with news and profiles of Naftali Bennett: the 40-year-old software entrepreneur, settler and former Israeli commando who touted his commitment to oppose a two-state solution and scored rising numbers in the polls. Bennett forced Netanyahu into what at times seemed like a desperate appeal to far-right voters.
Bennett and his Habayit Hayehudi (Jewish Home) party ultimately garnered 11 seats – certainly drawing voters from Netanyahu. But Yair Lapid and his Yesh Atid (There is a Future) party now seem to hold the cards when it comes to the coalition negotiations. With an unexpected 19 seats, Lapid – new to politics, though known well to Israelis as a television celebrity – is poised to be either leader of the opposition, or a senior cabinet member in Netanyahu’s government.
As yesterday’s election results underscored, Israeli politics is full of surprises. However, that Netanyahu will be able to forge a governing coalition, and that Lapid will help him do so seems likely. Shelly Yacimovich of Labor, who took third place, will be doing her best to woo Lapid into a Center-Left bloc. But Yacimovich is set on a “revolution” in Israeli politics and a revival of the Left. She can certainly take some comfort in yesterday’s outcome, which saw the Center-Left bloc gain five seats since the 2009 elections. But her third place finish was a disappointment and, for now, all signs point to Lapid taking a more centrist approach from within the Netanyahu fold.
Lapid’s last-minute gains were won at the hands of right-leaning voters who at the 11th hour chose him over Bennett. In this light, a full embrace of the left would alienate those who secured his current position of strength.
So what might this mean for the politics of peace with the Palestinians? The very question betrays a bias among international observers, who tend to view Israeli elections as a peace process-centric battleground. The predominant campaign rhetoric, post-election party posturing, and polling data suggest otherwise.
Socio-economic issues are foremost on the mind of Israelis. For sure, Lapid is no Naftali Bennett when it comes to the “Palestinian issue;” Lapid maintains a commitment to negotiations. But neither has he made peace with the Palestinians a priority plank of his platform, which squarely capitalized on the mood captured in Israel’s social protests of 2011 and 2012. Lapid’s strongest stand has been on pushing through a universal draft law that would conscript currently-exempt religious students and Palestinian citizens of the country.
Yet coalition-building is a process of interest-trading. Should Lapid now join a Netanyahu-led coalition, a cabinet post as senior as Foreign Minister could be on the table. During the campaign, Lapid said he would not join a Netanyahu coalition without another Center-Left party. If he keeps to his word, and succeeds in bringing the most likely of such candidates -- Tzipi Livni -- with him into a Netanyahu government, Livni’s own insistence on only participating in a government committed to peace with the Palestinians could dictate a diplomatic agenda that puts the peace process back on top.
This is an election in which Israelis voted for domestic, rather than diplomatic change, but once the dust settles on the coalition- building process, focus on the peace process may yet receive renewed attention.
What’s your read on the Israeli election results and what effect do you think they’ll have on the peace process? Send us your thoughts in the comment section below.
Lucy Kurtzer-Ellenbogen is a senior program officer for the Middle East at USIP.
