Mona Yacoubian addresses the recent collapse of Lebanon's government and discusses implications for stability in the country.
January 13, 2011
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Mona Yacoubian, addresses the recent collapse of Lebanon's government and discusses implications for stability in the country.
- Yesterday, Hezbollah and its political allies withdrew from the coalition government in Lebanon, collapsing the government. What led up to this action?
- What are the next steps for the Lebanese government?
- Is Lebanon poised to descend into another civil war?
- The government collapsed while Prime Minister Saad Hariri was meeting with President Obama in Washington. What impact could the resignations have on U.S.-Lebanon relations?
- What work is USIP doing in Lebanon?
Yesterday, Hezbollah and its political allies withdrew from the coalition government in Lebanon, collapsing the government. What led up to this action?
Failed mediation efforts by Syria and Saudi Arabia, Lebanon’s two main power brokers, led to the resignation of eleven Hezbollah-allied ministers and the Lebanese government’s collapse. The two countries had attempted to negotiate a compromise between Hezbollah and Prime Minister Saad Hariri on the U.N. Special Tribunal (STL). The coalition government, led by Prime Minister Hariri and his March 14th bloc, has been locked in an increasingly tense stalemate over the U.N. court. The STL is expected to issue indictments against Hezbollah for the February 2005 assassination of former Prime Minister Rafiq Hariri, the current prime minister’s father. Using increasingly strident tones, Hezbollah has termed the tribunal an “Israeli-American plot” and threatened to “cut the hand” of anyone who attempts to arrest its members. It has demanded that Hariri and the Lebanese government completely disavow the court. The Shiite militant group has continued to ratchet up the pressure on Hariri and his allies; bringing down the government is the latest and most serious move by Hezbollah to force the Lebanese government to cease all cooperation with the STL.
Yesterday’s government collapse puts Lebanon in a dangerous limbo. The coming weeks and months will likely be marked by political paralysis, demonstrations, deepening sectarian tensions and instability. Hezbollah’s allies have already raised the possibility of massive street protests as a “democratic” means for the opposition to express its disdain for the U.N. tribunal.
What are the next steps for the Lebanese government?
At this point, Lebanon only has a caretaker government with little authority beyond managing day-to-day affairs. President Michel Suleiman will need to nominate a new prime minister after consultations with key political players. Together, the president and prime minister, in consultation with the parliament, then form a cabinet which submits a ministerial statement setting out its policies to the parliament for approval. This process will likely require weeks, if not months, given Lebanon’s deeply polarized political atmosphere. In the meantime, Lebanon will enter a period of entrenched paralysis in which the country’s pressing economic and social issues will remain unaddressed. Sorely needed institutional reforms—critical for Lebanon’s long-term stability—will not be passed, and Lebanon’s electoral timetable (the next parliamentary elections are slated for 2013) could be delayed.
Is Lebanon at risk of descending into another civil war?
Lebanon is unlikely to descend into an all-out civil war, but sporadic sectarian violence is quite possible. Mixed Sunni-Shiite areas in cities such as Beirut and Tripoli will be particularly vulnerable to sectarian unrest where street protests hold the potential to rapidly spiral out of control. While Hezbollah maintains the preponderance of military power, it does not have the ability to control street-level sectarian dynamics. Given Lebanon’s volatility, small disagreements can quickly escalate into more serious conflict. As an example, this past August, a minor dispute over a parking space rapidly deteriorated into a deadly sectarian clash fueled by rocket-propelled grenades and other weapons. Such instances of sectarian strife, however, are unlikely to expand into a broader civil war. Hezbollah’s military superiority leaves little room for other factions to pose a sustainable challenge. At the same time, Hezbollah is unlikely to mount a “takeover” of Beirut or other strategic areas of the country. Mindful of the damage to its reputation from May 2008 violence when Hezbollah briefly overran Sunni-dominated West Beirut, the Shiite organization will seek to avoid broad-based sectarian conflict.
The government collapsed while Prime Minister Saad Hariri was meeting with President Obama in Washington. What impact could the resignations have on U.S.-Lebanon relations?
The timing of Hezbollah’s decision to pull out of the government is noteworthy and was no doubt meant as a powerful message to Hariri’s Western allies that the Shiite organization is a significant force to contend with in Lebanon. Lebanon has long served as an arena for proxy battles between regional and global powers. The current crisis is no different: Hezbollah, backed by Iran and Syria, is locked in a deep struggle with the Western-backed alliance of Saad Hariri. At this point, it is too early to determine the impact of the Lebanese government collapse on U.S.-Lebanon relations. U.S. government officials have hastened to express their support for Lebanon. They have stressed their commitment to Lebanon’s stability and sovereignty, while reiterating that the work of the tribunal should go forward. While no decisions have been made to cut off military assistance or development aid to Lebanon, U.S. officials will no doubt be monitoring the situation carefully and will pay close attention to the composition of the government that eventually emerges from the current crisis.
What work is USIP doing in Lebanon?
The main thrust of USIP’s work on Lebanon is focused on the Lebanon Working Group which seeks to enhance the foreign policy community’s understanding of the many complex issues embodied by Lebanese internal as well as regional politics. The Working Group brings together Lebanon experts from across government, think tank, academic and non-governmental sectors to share knowledge and expertise in order to better inform their work. The Working Group occasionally sponsors public events and congressional briefings. USIP also seeks to provide timely, policy-relevant analysis on Lebanon and produces a number of publications.