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Iran’s recent detention of 15 British sailors and marines has exacerbated tensions between the United States and Iran. With relations already strained due to Iran's activities in Iraq and its nuclear ambitions, understanding Iran's power structure and decision-making processes has become increasingly important.
This Special Report, framed as a brief "how to" guide for American negotiators dealing with counterparts from the Islamic Republic of Iran, contains insights into Iranian negotiating patterns and appropriate responses. The report is the result of interviews with academics and practitioners, as well as historical research.
This report focuses on Iran's interactions with groups in Lebanon, Iraq, and to a lesser extent, the Palestinian territories. The intent is to help policymakers understand the real extent of Iranian influence so that they can better motivate Iran and its allies to become more constructive actors in the Middle East.
The aftermath of the UN Security Council resolution calling for a ceasefire of the recent conflict between Israel and Hezbollah has shifted the balance of power in the Middle East, affecting the regional Shiite-Sunni dynamic and intensifying international focus on Iran.
Western policy toward Iran relies heavily on economic pressure, and Iran's political trajectory is shaped in large part by its economic prospects and constraints. What is the state of the Iranian economy? The Iran Policy Forum tackled this question in their latest meeting.
As the third book in the series from the Institute’s Muslim World Initiative on pivotal states in the Muslim world, this lucid and timely volume sheds much-needed light on Iran’s strikingly complex political system and foreign policy and its central role in the region.
Daniel Brumberg, acting director of USIP's Muslim World Initiative, discusses the recent meeting between senior U.S. officials and Iranian diplomats during an international conference at the Hague on March 31. This meeting represents the Obama administration's biggest step so far to reestablish dialogue with the Islamic Republic after 30 years of hostility.
Against a backdrop of growing instability in the Middle East, and despite continued pressure from the West, Syria’s alliance with Iran appears to be holding strong and perhaps even deepening. The United States has strongly criticized both Syria and Iran for contributing to the region’s volatility and, in particular, for playing a destabilizing role in each of three regional conflicts: Iraq, Lebanon, and Palestine.
Briefing before the bipartisan Congressional briefing series sponsored by Congressmen Howard Berman (D-CA) and Chris Shays (R-CT) on the rising tensions in U.S.-Iran relations over Iraq, Afghanistan, Lebanon and Iran’s nuclear ambitions featuring Suzanne Maloney, co-chair of USIP’s Iran Policy Forum, and the International Crisis Group.
Barbara Slavin testified before the U.S. Commission on International Religious Freedom on conditions in Iran on February 21. Her testimony addressed recent U.S. policy towards Iran, the Iranian government's current crackdown on dissenters, and possible courses of action for a new U.S. administration.
USIPeace Briefing discussing the challenges posed to the U.S. as a result of the close relationship between Iraq and Iran.
Latest from USIP on Iran
- November 4, 2009 | Event
Thirty years to the day after the taking of the U.S. hostages in Iran, in the wake of their controversial June 2009 presidential election, the regime's ensuing crackdown against peaceful demonstrators, and recent news of U.S. funding cuts for Iran democracy programs, Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) offered his views on how the U.S. should approach Iran on the issues of human rights and democracy.
- November 2, 2009 | Resource
On Wednesday, Iran will hold a parade and demonstration to mark the 30th anniversary of the U.S. embassy seizure. The opposition is now mobilizing followers to turn the commemoration into a mass protest. Robin Wright, a Jennings Randolph fellow at the U.S. Institute of Peace and author of four books on Iran, covered the revolution and the hostage drama.
- October 26, 2009 | Event
On October 26, 2009, USIP held a panel discussion with Amb. Linton Brooks, Joseph Cirincione, and Thomas Scheber on next steps for the START process and the START Follow-on Treaty.
- October 15, 2009 | Event
USIP's Daniel Brumberg joined a panel of guest speakers, including Congressman Keith Ellison, for a lively discussion of USIP's new volume "Conflict, Identity, and Reform in the Muslim World."
Featured Centers, Initiatives, and Projects
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In April 2009, the internal contest in Iran for control over both domestic and foreign policy will crystallize with the holding of presidential elections. Although US-Iranian relations certainly do not depend exclusively on the outcome of this poll, for better or worse those relations will be influenced by the re-election of Ahmadenejad or his replacement by a more pragmatic conservative. The latter might create space for a negotiated solution, whereas the re-election of an unrepentant Ahmadenejad will work against diplomacy. This, combined with the heightened estrangement between the US and Iran—exacerbated by the lack of concrete information and expertise about Iran within the American diplomatic and strategic planning communities—could increase the probability of a US-Iranian confrontation.
Within the region itself, tension between Iran and its Sunni Arab neighbors has intensified since the Iraq war began. Some scholars and policymakers argue that the expansion of Iran’s influence in Gulf states with significant Shi’ite minorities, such as Kuwait and Saudi Arabia, and particularly in states that have a Shi’ite majority, such as Bahrain, has led to the emergence of a “Shi’ite crescent” from Beirut to Kuwait City. This has created a specter of Shi’ite-Sunni conflict within Arab states, and between the Arab states and Iran itself. Tehran’s efforts to create an independent nuclear fuel cycle have fed these concerns, prompting fears that Iran will use an implicit drive for nuclear weapons to cow moderate Arab regimes, or to create a climate that enhances the leverage of Shi‘ite radical movements. Anticipating these challenges, Sunni-led Arab governments have deployed a range of tactics to discourage, deflect, isolate or even shut down Shi‘ite political activism. However, these tactics could exacerbate rather than dampen sectarian conflicts in the Gulf, further enhancing Iran’s leverage.
SUMMARY OF PROJECTS
• Iranian Power Struggles and US-European-Iranian Relations—This project will include a March 2009 investigative trip to explore Western assessments of internal Iranian politics and the efficacy of sanctions versus incentives. A USIP team consisting of two scholars will travel to Europe to undertake interviews with relevant policymakers within and outside the governments of the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and Russia. A conference featuring American and European analysts will be held following the trip, and the results of the study will be published in a USIP Special Report. This project will be conducted with the German Marshall Fund.
• Iran and Sunni-Shi’ite Conflict in the Gulf—USIP will support a comprehensive analysis of Shi’ite political activism in Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, and Bahrain to assess the level of domestic challenge or threat emanating from Shi’ite groups or leaders, and to further assess the range of responses available to regimes in addressing these states. This will include field work, and the results will be published in a USIP book.
• Iran Working Group—The USIP-Brookings Iran Working Group will continue collaborating and will hold six to eight working group meetings in 2009. Topics will include examining concrete policy options for the next U.S. presidential administration; Iran’s internal politics, including the scheduled 2009 presidential elections; Iranian social and cultural dynamics; economic conditions and policies; and Iran’s relationship with the international community.
• Peacemaking Resources for Iranian Faculty—Building on meetings between American Muslim delegations and Iranian counterparts, USIP will conduct a four-day training on Islamic peacemaking and conflict resolution in Qom. This will teach professors theories and practices used in conflict resolution, mediation skills, and ways to incorporate critical thinking skills in their teaching. The focus will be on assisting the professors in their efforts to develop programs on conflict resolution for their respective institutions.
• Asieh Mir Fellowship Project: Mapping the Minds, Charting the Course: A Qualitative Approach to Democratic Movement in Iran—Asieh Mir’s project will focus on understanding why Iran’s pro-democracy ruling elites have failed to establish democratic values and institutions in the Iran political arena. She will test her hypothesis—that attitudes about democracy, including the conflicts between democratic ideals and Islamic principles and disparate notions of an optimal political system, may be partly to blame—through a qualitative study of Iranian political elite attitudes toward democracy.
• Iranian Negotiating Behavior—USIP will produce and publish a book on Iranian negotiating behavior, the first book focusing on a Muslim-majority country in the Institute’s series on cross-cultural negotiation.
GOALS
• To increase the breadth and depth of knowledge about developments in Iran among the foreign policy community
• To elucidate domestic and regional challenges in the Arab Gulf and identify non-violent political reform strategies
• To assess opportunities for and obstacles against pursuing a negotiated solution to the conflict with Iran