USIP's Jon Temin assesses the preliminary results of Sudan's referendum, in which 99 percent voted for the south's secession. The final results are expected to come out in mid February.
February 1, 2010
USIP's Jon Temin assesses the preliminary results of Sudan's referendum, in which 99 percent voted for the south's secession. The final results are expected to come out in mid February.
- How do you interpret the Sudan referendum results?
- Will these results be accepted or contested or appealed?
- What are the next steps in Sudan and for the US?
- What was USIP’s role in the referendum process?
How do you interpret the Sudan referendum results?
There are just the preliminary results (final results are expected in a week or two), but they are consistent with all expectations that southern Sudanese voted overwhelmingly to secede. Such a lopsided outcome leaves no doubt about the southerners’ preference. The results were rather consistent throughout southern Sudan, with voters in each of the ten southern states voting by large margins to secede. This shows that southerners are clearly unified in their opinions on this issue. In the south there were jubilant reactions to the announcement, but southerners also know That there are many important issue that need to be negotiated prior to independence, which is scheduled to become official in July 2011.
Will these results be accepted or contested or appealed?
The national government in Khartoum just announced its acceptance of the preliminary results. Khartoum has clearly modified its position on accepting the results and southern secession in recent months, which is an encouraging development. The international community has played an important role in helping to compel this apparent change. Once the results are final (after the appeals process ends), it will be up to the African Union, and then the rest of the world, to recognize the results as well.
What are the next steps in Sudan and for the US?
While the referendum process has been relatively peaceful and Khartoum seems ready to accept the results, there are many challenges to stability on the horizon. The most immediate is the status of Abyei, the volatile region on the north-south border that was supposed to have its own referendum on whether to be part of the north or south, but leaders on either side could not agree on voter eligibility for that referendum. Also critical will be ongoing negotiations between north and south on post-referendum arrangements – in other words, the terms of the divorce between north and south, and how they will deal with important issues such as sharing oil revenue and debts and the legal status of southerners who live in the north and northerners who live in the south. The US has an important role to play in catalyzing these negotiations.
What was USIP’s role in the referendum process?
USIP has been focusing on the referendum for several years, recognizing the magnitude of this event. USIP’s Academy for International Conflict Management and Peacebuilding conducted a series of trainings on Referendum Violence Prevention in southern Sudan, which followed on a similar series of Electoral Violence Prevention workshops in 2009 and 2010. In the run-up to the referendum, a number of publications (see, Secession and Precedent in Sudan and Africa) and events (see, Previewing Sudan’s January Referendums) focused on critical aspects of the process and potential post-referendum scenarios.
In addition, two USIP personnel served as election observes with the delegation led by the Carter Center; they will share insights from their experiences at a public event on February 2.