Publications
Articles, publications, books, tools and multimedia features from the U.S. Institute of Peace provide the latest news, analysis, research findings, practitioner guides and reports, all related to the conflict zones and issues that are at the center of the Institute’s work to prevent and reduce violent conflict.
How Should the U.S. Respond to China’s Brazen Pursuit of Spratly Islands Claim?
In recent weeks, the People’s Republic of China (PRC) has dispatched ships and other maritime forces to the disputed Spratly islands near the Philippines. The goal has been to coerce the Philippines into withdrawing from the contested Second Thomas Shoal, effectively ceding it to the PRC. China’s actions are in defiance of the international Permanent Court of Arbitration’s findings that undermine PRC claims to the Spratlys. They therefore constitute a serious challenge to the international rules governing maritime conduct, as well as to broader peace and stability in the South China Sea, through which enormous amounts of global trade flow.
China, Philippines Tensions Risk Wider Conflict that Could Draw in the U.S.
In yet another act of Chinese aggression in the South China Sea, a Chinese Coast Guard vessel employed a water cannon last weekend to redirect an unarmed Philippines Navy supply boat. The incident took place in disputed waters near the Second Thomas Shoal. China claims the shoal and nearly all of the South China Sea as its own, but an international court has said both the shoal and surrounding waters belong to the Philippines.
How Russia’s Military Bloggers Shape the Course of Putin’s War
Russian President Vladimir Putin relies on the manipulation of media narratives and limiting access to information to maintain popular support and acceptance of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Indian Ocean Basing and Access: How Smaller States Navigate Major Power Competition
In late July, Sri Lankan President Ranil Wickremesinghe traveled to New Delhi to meet with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi. The trip addressed several important issues, such as greater connectivity. However, there was one item on the agenda that did not receive much media attention despite its potential impact on Indian Ocean regional security: Sri Lanka’s new standard operating procedure (SOP) to determine which military and non-military ships and aircraft may visit the country.
How to Respond to Niger’s Coup — and Prevent the Next One
Military officers in Niger are rushing to consolidate the power they seized 15 days ago, while West Africa’s elected governments and regional institutions are seeking ways to reverse the July 27 coup d’état. Niger’s coup seems a particular setback for democracy, completing a six-nation belt of military regimes across Africa’s Sahel region. Amid this uncertain power struggle, how can the world support Africans’ demonstrated demand for elected, democratic governance that meets their peoples’ needs? We should begin by hewing to several basic principles. One is to keep our responses to coups coherent — but not uniform. Niger’s coup is distinct; our response must be as well.
West Africa’s Leaders Face the High Stakes of Niger’s Coup
Amid the global challenges to building international stability and peace, a crisis increasingly forcing itself to the foreground — even amid those of record human displacement, climate degradation and unresolved wars — is the plunge by six countries across Africa’s Sahel region into coups d’état and military rule. Eight coups since 2020 have left 150 million people under rule by their armed forces. The latest coup, in Niger, is drawing a heightened international response, and a key player, the 15-nation West African community, today that it will pursue a long campaign of economic and diplomatic pressure, and that it sees military force as a last resort.
Mary Speck on Guatemala’s Watershed Elections
Ahead of the country’s second-round presidential elections later this month, USIP’s Mary Speck explains how judicial interference has injected chaos into the country’s democratic process. There are concerns that Guatemala’s democratic backsliding could reverberate throughout Central America. “What happens in Guatemala can affect the whole region.”
Russia’s Africa Summit — and a Future for Wagner
Ever since Russia’s Wagner mercenary group jolted Vladimir Putin’s regime with its brief mutiny in Russia, foggy uncertainty has surrounded Wagner’s future roles — whether domestically, as part of Putin’s web of armed forces, as a fighting force in Ukraine, or as a Kremlin tool of influence and profit in Africa. The past week offers the most prominent sign yet of how Wagner’s flamboyant chief, Yevgeniy Prigozhin, is pressing to retain an African role. While mostly shoved out of public view, Prigozhin was able to appear at Putin’s Russia-Africa Summit to meet African contacts and re-declare his relevance.
Ukraine is advancing its peace plan. The U.S. can help.
While Ukraine’s counteroffensive against Russia’s invasion has global attention on the battlefield, President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s government is also busy advancing a diplomatic initiative: a peace summit to build momentum and cohesion among international partners on its 10-point peace plan. The United States should be a leader in backing this diplomatic effort — which is on the agenda this weekend in multilateral talks in Saudi Arabia. Broadening international buy-in for Ukraine’s peace plan serves U.S. interests. It can short-circuit less constructive peace initiatives and reinforce a cardinal international norm: An aggressor that launches an unprovoked war can't expect to set the terms for peace afterward.
Countering Coups: How to Reverse Military Rule Across the Sahel
Three years of coups around Africa’s Sahel region — eight of them in six nations, from Guinea on the Atlantic to Sudan on the Red Sea — leave many African and other policymakers frustrated over how to respond. The Sahel’s crises have uprooted more than 4 million people and could add millions more to our record levels of global human migration as Africa’s population grows and its climate destabilizes. Yet the pattern of coups and other evidence — notably from USIP’s Sahel fieldwork, counter-coup research and bipartisan analysis teams — offer guidelines for effective responses by African, U.S. and international policymakers.