U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Steve Scully: Pleased to reconnect with Dean Cheng, who we met back at Stanford University as a Hoover Fellow a couple of years ago. And you've been doing some great work. Thanks, as always, for being with us.

Dean Cheng: Thank you for having me.

Steve Scully: I want to talk about your book, first and foremost, “China and the New Moon Race”. What's it all about?

Dean Cheng: So, it's an examination of Chinese writings on their Lunar Exploration Program. What they hope to achieve, an assessment of how they are using it to build relations with other countries on Earth, terrestrially, and also where they're likely to wind up heading, because what we are seeing is very much a renewed Moon race and space race right at the start of the incoming Trump administration.

Steve Scully: And that is part of the discussion here at “Passing the Baton”. We heard from the FBI director on “60 Minutes” Sunday, saying that China is “the number one international threat in this country that the U.S. is facing.” What are your concerns about China? What don't we know that we should know about those threats, whether it's cyber, economic, political or military?

Dean Cheng: What we don't have enough of first off is language capability. The Chinese publish an enormous amount of material, but not surprisingly, it's all in Chinese, and they view that actually as their first line of defense. So, if we want to learn more about their economic plans, their security plans, their lunar plans, we need to be able to read what they are saying. Second of all, we need to understand just how pervasive they've been. When we talk about the Chinese having a long-term plan, we're talking not about a year or four years, we're talking decades. That's how long it takes for them to recruit people, that's how long it takes for them to basically insert themselves into various everything from supply chains to media and outreach. So, understanding that mindset is enormously important if we're going to try and counter them.

Steve Scully: And to your point, and we've heard that so often that the Chinese have a 50- and 100-year plan, we cannot even pass a budget yearly. So how do we change our thinking in the U.S.? How does official Washington change its thinking in terms of dealing with China?

Dean Cheng: We need to take it seriously. We need to recognize that, yes, we won the Cold War, but that doesn't mean we're going to win all of the other conflicts. Certainly, we were more concentrated. We were more focused. We were as a nation, more united in recognizing the Soviet threat to this even now. Look at the debates over TikTok. Look at the debates over investment by the Chinese in the United States and our investments in China. There is no consensus. If we can't achieve a consensus, we cannot really hope to formulate a strategy that we will stick to.

Steve Scully: Dean Cheng, thank you very much for stopping by. We appreciate it. We're going to go to the program now with Ambassador John Sullivan outlining the format and the goal today here at USIP, live coverage on Sirius XM POTUS 124.

Steve Scully: And welcome back. One of our special guests here is Dean Cheng, somebody who I've known for many years, senior advisor to the China program here at USIP. Let's continue the conversation. Thanks for joining us at the top of the hour and before we heard from the acting president and the chairman of the board here at USIP, about the threats from China, and most notably what we may see with TikTok. What are the threats from TikTok, and ultimately, what do you think needs to happen?

Dean Cheng: So I think the common perception of TikTok is that it can shape and mold public opinion and certainly has a great deal of influence over particularly younger people. But I think the actual threat lies in the two fundamental realities, the data is often stored in China, user data, and other associated information, and we know from TikTok’s own people that the Chinese have been able to access that data. Now that may not seem like a real issue If you're, you know, what can an 18-year-old know? But what if that 18-year-old is a son or daughter of a U.S. senator, or the son or daughter of a general or the son or daughter of the deputy director of central intelligence? Do you still feel comfortable that their information might be accessed by the Chinese? So that, I think, is really the core. What's going to happen? I think my impression is the Supreme Court is going to okay the ban, and at that point, the real question is going to be for the Chinese, who have said they are not prepared to allow the U.S. to take over the TikTok. What will they do? Will they simply shut it down? Will they basically only sell a piece of it to outside investors. It's not clear what the Chinese will do.

Steve Scully: So, what do you tell 14, 15, 16, year old kids who rely on TikTok? And for them, that's a very different story than somebody like you or me.

Dean Cheng: That's a tough one, because it's also trying to explain to them why this really cool idea, like eating detergent pods, is a bad idea. 14-year-olds, 14-year-olds will do dumb things. I was a 14-year-old once, lord knows, I did some dumb things. The issue is trying to explain to them that the things that you may or may not care about right now can and will come back to bite you. Maybe five years, maybe 10 years from now, and how to explain that to them, that's partly parenting, that's partly better messaging from adults. I think it may come down to however, finding an example or two that really resonates how you do that, I’m not sure.

Steve Scully: We’re going to spend a lot more time to talk about your book, but as you researched the threats we're facing from China, and I think it's obvious that China is stealing U.S. technology and information. How widespread is it?

Dean Cheng: I think that when we consider that there were indications that Chinese hackers went after Coca Cola, government hackers, not private hackers that the Chinese, have run rampant through European information systems. The German chancellor's office, under Angela Merkel, complained about the Chinese in their systems. This is pervasive. This is not just about the United States. It's about military secrets, it's about government secrets, but it's also about commercial and corporate secrets, because from the Chinese perspective, it's all about information. What little label you put on it matters less than what can I find out about your business, about your military, about your technology that I can exploit?

Steve Scully: As you know, yesterday, President Joe Biden was just a few yards away at the State Department talking about his legacy. He talked about his close working relationship with Xi Jinping. They've known each other for many, many years as a senator, as vice president, as president. What's your advice to Donald Trump in dealing with Xi Jinping, and how can Americans best understand who he is as the Chinese leader.

Dean Cheng: Xi Jinping is the most powerful leader China has seen since Deng Xiaoping.

Steve Scully: Really?

Dean Cheng: He has concentrated more power into himself. He has reversed term limits in China. They had them for a little while. He has stacked the ruling leadership as a result, as he enters into his third term with entirely his own people, and he has a vision. He has what's called the “China Dream”. And the “China Dream” is, quote, the great revival of the Chinese people. To put it in the simplest term, Xi Jinping wants to make China great again, but it is to create a China that dominates the Western Pacific and all of Asia. It is a China that is going to challenge our fundamental alliance relationships, not just with Japan and South Korea, but also with Europe. Where not through military means, but through economic, political and technology means, and that is the challenge that faces Donald Trump.

Steve Scully: Final question, so help us better understand then, how the Chinese government approaches the U.S. when it comes to diplomacy, the pandas are back here in Washington, that's a good thing, and yet they're stealing our technology, and it's a very real threat to U.S. security. So how do you square that?

Dean Cheng: Basically, it's spread in circuses. Let me give you some pandas, by the way, I'm not giving them to you, I'm only loaning them to you in exchange for you downplaying things like technology, theft, intellectual property challenges and most worrisome of late, China building invasion barges that seem to be clearly designed for a Taiwan contingency.

Steve Scully: And so, as we pass the baton and deal with the threats from China, we heard from the FBI director, we have a new incoming administration, new Secretary of State, Senator Marco Rubio, who will be confirmed. On China in particular, your advice Dean Cheng is what?

Dean Cheng: Keep your powder dry. Understand that they have a plan, and they are hewing to it, and that you defeat an adversary by defeating their plan, not by playing whack a mole against individual specific instances. Defeat the strategy, you defeat the enemy.

Steve Scully: And the book is titled?

Dean Cheng: “China and the New Moon Race”.

Steve Scully: We will have you back in Sirius XM studios to talk much more about that. Dean Cheng, thank you very much.

Dean Cheng: Thank you for having me.