Andrew Wilder, director of USIP’s Afghanistan and Pakistan programs, looks at Afghanistan in a time of transition, highlighting the significant developments of the past year and looking ahead to 2013 and beyond.
December 28, 2012
Andrew Wilder, director of USIP’s Afghanistan and Pakistan programs, looks at Afghanistan in a time of transition, highlighting the significant developments of the past year and looking ahead to 2013 and beyond.
- Security and economic transitions: “The most significant development was that the processes of transition really got fully underway in 2012,” says Wilder. The signing of the Strategic Partnership Agreement, the Chicago NATO Summit, and the Tokyo Conference all demonstrated that the U.S. and its allies will continue to support Afghanistan’s security forces and economy well after 2014, he says. “But it was done in the context of a Mutual Accountability Framework which said that the Afghan government is also going to have to deliver. There are no blank checks here.”
- Political transition: Afghanistan is also heading towards a major political transition, with President Hamid Karzai due to step down in 2014. “From the perspective of the U.S. Institute of Peace, we feel that this is potentially the most important transition of all in terms of future peace and stability,” Wilder says. Without a credible election in 2014, he says, it’s very unclear who would control the security forces, and Afghanistan could be at risk of a return to civil war.
- USIP’s role: “Moving forward, we at the U.S. Institute of Peace are trying to continue to emphasize the importance of the political transition,” Wilder says. Planned USIP activities in Afghanistan include building awareness of the election through the media, training women to strengthen their ability to participate in the election, continuing to work on promoting the rule of law, and making grants to civil society organizations. “However,” Wilder says, “The thing we’re hoping to see more of in 2013 and 2014 is progress on the reconciliation front, because ultimately Afghanistan does need an inclusive political settlement if there’s going to be durable peace… There is not a military end to the conflict.”