Since January 2021, USIP has been collecting data on the frequency and characteristics of civic mobilization in 83 political transitions initiated through civil resistance from 1945 to the present to help understand when challenges to democratic progress have been successfully overcome and provide practical lessons learned for activists, policymakers and academics interested in nonviolent action and democratization.

Nonviolent action, also known as civil resistance, is a powerful force for bringing about peaceful, democratic change. Political transitions brought about through nonviolent action are much more likely to end in democracy than any other form of transition. But once transitions have been initiated through nonviolent action, activists and peacebuilders often struggle to maintain the civic mobilization necessary to hold new powerholders accountable and ensure peaceful democratic progress.

Protesters arrive in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum, April 23, 2019. The Sudanese deposed a dictator, but some fear true stability can never come until the truth is revealed about who killed more than a hundred protesters. (Bryan Denton/The New York Times)
Protesters arrive in Sudan’s capital of Khartoum, April 23, 2019. The Sudanese deposed a dictator, but some fear true stability can never come until the truth is revealed about who killed more than a hundred protesters. (Bryan Denton/The New York Times)

While past research has identified maintaining civic mobilization through transitions as a key challenge to be overcome for a successful transition to democracy, there has previously been no comprehensive source of data on which transitions have high levels of civic mobilization; the actors most commonly engaging in mobilization; and the effects of different kinds of mobilization on long-term political outcomes. This is a major gap preventing activists, policymakers and academics from understanding how the short-term success of nonviolent action can be turned into long-term sustainable change.

The Civic Mobilization in Civil Resistance Transitions (CM-CRT) dataset addresses this gap with the first comprehensive data source on civic mobilization during transitions initiated through nonviolent action from 1945 to the present. The data, collected at the event level, provides a detailed look at how mobilization changes in the aftermath of successful nonviolent action campaigns and how those changes in mobilization interact with crucial secondary factors like government repression, dialogue and negotiation processes, and institutional change. Each event includes information on over 100 variables, capturing dozens of distinct concepts such as inclusivity, size, repression and foreign support.

The data was collected through a rigorous examination of hundreds of thousands of news reports, scholarly articles and books published on each of the transitions in question. Each event was independently verified by two researchers to ensure relevance and inter-rater reliability. The full details of the data collection process are available in the project codebook.

Version 1.0 of the data was collected by a research team at the Foundation for Inclusion in cooperation with USIP’s program on nonviolent action and includes over 1,400 events from 72 transitions from 1945 to 2019. Data collection on version 1.1 of the data is ongoing. This version of the data will include events from an additional 11 transitions, to cover all known transitions initiated through nonviolent action since World War II. Check this page for updates!

Uses for the Data

Researchers from USIP’s program on nonviolent action are currently analyzing the data to shed light on the types of mobilization and actors involved in mobilization in civil resistance transitions that have had the greatest impact on democratization. A USIP special report detailing these findings is planned to be released in 2022.

The data and all its supporting materials are freely available for any non-commercial purpose. Academics can use the data to examine research questions related to nonviolent action and democratization. Potential questions that could be addressed with the CM-CRT data include:

  • Which political actors have the greatest impact on keeping civil resistance transitions on a democratizing path?
  • How does gender diversity of mobilization impact long-term protections for women’s rights?
  • How has long-term post-campaign mobilization changed as social media has become a more central mobilization tool?

Policymakers and international practitioners can use the data to look at how mobilization by key civic actors has impacted democratization in a key set of political transitions.

Access the full data here

Latest Publications

Despite Ukraine Focus, Asia-Pacific to Play Prominent Role at NATO Summit

Despite Ukraine Focus, Asia-Pacific to Play Prominent Role at NATO Summit

Monday, June 27, 2022

By: Mirna Galic

NATO countries meet this week in Madrid, Spain amid Russia’s war on Ukraine, the biggest test the alliance has faced in decades. The summit is expected to focus heavily on demonstrating NATO’s unity, support for Ukraine and the bids of Finland and Sweden — propelled by Russia’s aggressive incursion — to join the alliance. But developments in the Asia-Pacific, chiefly the rise of China, will also be a top item on the agenda, with Australia, Japan, New Zealand and South Korea participating at the leader level for the first time at a NATO summit.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Global Policy

Climate Change, Migration and the Risk of Conflict in Growing Urban Centers

Climate Change, Migration and the Risk of Conflict in Growing Urban Centers

Monday, June 27, 2022

By: Tegan Blaine, Ph.D.;  Julia Canney;  Chris Collins;  Jessica Kline;  Rachel Locke

From 2015 to 2050, the world’s urban population is expected to nearly double, in part because migrants from rural areas devastated by climate change are being driven to cities in search of economic and social stability. However, many of the world’s fastest-growing cities are already struggling to handle their own climate issues. From rising seas to freshwater scarcity, the complex interplay of climate change, population growth and fragility in cities has made them hotbeds for social and economic inequalities — increasing the risk of violence and having a profound impact on human security in urban centers around the world.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

EnvironmentConflict Analysis & Prevention

A Ripe Moment for Building Peace by Promoting International Religious Freedom

A Ripe Moment for Building Peace by Promoting International Religious Freedom

Monday, June 27, 2022

By: Peter Mandaville, Ph.D.;  Knox Thames

In late June and early July, two global convenings will highlight challenges to international religious freedom and the search for solutions: the IRF Summit for nongovernmental organizations and the International Ministerial Conference on Freedom of Religion or Belief. These timely gatherings will bring together government representatives, activists and faith leaders from different religious, regional and political backgrounds to discuss a common goal of ending persecution. Two keys for their success will be creating diverse coalitions to advance international religious freedom (IRF) in a nonpartisan manner and linking the issue to broader concerns about peace and stability. 

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Human RightsReligion

Amid Historic Crisis, Has a New Hope Emerged in Lebanon?

Amid Historic Crisis, Has a New Hope Emerged in Lebanon?

Thursday, June 23, 2022

By: Adam Gallagher

As Lebanon suffers from an historic economic crisis propelled by the venality of its political establishment, the May 15 elections have injected a glimmer of hope amid gloomy prospects for the future. Thirteen independent candidates — part of what is dubbed the “change opposition” — won seats in the 128-member Parliament. “The election of these 13 MPs [members of Parliament] is a very important, gradual first step toward more peaceful political change and reform in Lebanon,” said Mona Yacoubian, a Lebanon expert and senior advisor for the U.S. Institute of Peace. But the road ahead is fraught with internal challenges and external forces that could impede Lebanon’s much-needed reform.

Type: Analysis and Commentary

Democracy & Governance

The Persistent Challenge of Extremism in Bangladesh

The Persistent Challenge of Extremism in Bangladesh

Thursday, June 23, 2022

By: Mubashar Hasan;  Geoffrey Macdonald

On July 1, 2016, Bangladeshi militants carried out an attack, targeting mostly foreigners and non-Muslims, at the Holey Artisan Bakery in Dhaka. The Bangladeshi government responded to the attack with a concerted and controversial counterterrorism campaign. Although the number of terrorist incidents has been in steady decline since 2016, Islamist groups continue to operate, recruit, and carry out small-scale attacks while aspiring to perpetrate greater violence. This report examines the dynamics, drivers, and manifestations of extremism in Bangladesh and discusses measures to weaken its appeal.

Type: Special Report

Violent Extremism

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