U.S. Institute of Peace experts discuss the latest foreign policy issues from around the world in On Peace, a brief weekly collaboration with SiriusXM's POTUS Channel 124.

Transcript

Laura Coates: One of the big issues that people are grappling with politically is about foreign policy, and our position with respect to the global positioning with China, with other world leaders and beyond. And I think it's important for us to visit the issue of what's been happening right now in that area. Dean Cheng is the USIP's China program senior advisor. He joins us now. Dean, good morning. How are you?

Dean Cheng: Pretty good. It's a rather chilly morning here in Northern Virginia.

Laura Coates: It really is in the DC area, absolutely. Although it's been pretty warm so I'm not going to complain for too long. Although, you know, I could use some more warm weather soon. I'm not planning a vacation like the day after tomorrow, I don't know, it's a whole thing. But Dean, let's talk about what's been going on, in your area of expertise in particular. Because, you know, we had been hearing a lot about Taiwan in recent months. Can you give us an update of what's been happening as a key issue that's going to remain in play?

Dean Cheng: Well, the Taiwan issue is long-standing. The challenge, of course, is that we have a fundamental problem across the Strait. The PRC — the Chinese leadership, especially Xi Jinping — has made very clear that he expects Taiwan's leadership at some point to basically say, "Oh, and we are part of China." And the current president of Taiwan recently gave a speech which the Chinese leadership was very unhappy about, precisely because he did not say that, and he did not use any of the formulations that Beijing wants. This is probably the single biggest flashpoint in the western Pacific. This is the concern that animates INDOPACOM, animates the Pentagon, because this is the one area where we are most likely to see, if conflict were to break out, a direct confrontation between the United States and China because of our general desire to see a peaceful resolution to the situation and the reality also that because of where Taiwan is physically, it would affect a lot of our allies: Japan, South Korea, the Philippines.

Laura Coates: Are you seeing a change in terms of, and obviously you are not a partisan and we're not having you discuss it from that perspective, but how closely is a presidential election, who might be in office, something that China has been considering in terms of its future policies and stance with the United States?

Dean Cheng: From the Chinese perspective, [that of] the Chinese leadership, the United States is a huge part of the problem. From the Chinese leadership's perspective, if only the United States would basically abandon Taiwan, Taiwan's population would then have no hope and would then basically say, "Well, I guess we should rejoin with the mainland." That's the Chinese perspective. Whether or not that's true is not the point. That is how the Chinese see the issue. They therefore pay enormous attention to who is going to be president in the United States. On top of that, of course, is the reality that the United States is, I believe, China's largest single national trading partner. China is also one of the largest trading partners of the United States. So there is a separate but related massive economic relationship that keeps millions of Chinese employed, that keeps a lot of Americans employed. And that is also a reason why the Chinese pay very close attention to who is president, because they do believe that presidents have enormous influence over economic policy, over the state of economic relations, and especially as China's economy has been weakening, they're concerned about who is going to be in the White House and what policies will they be pursuing with regards to trade issues, technology issues, all those aspects.

Laura Coates: Sadly, we have about a minute left together, but North Korea has now become an open combatant in Ukraine. What might that bode for U.S. security challenges in the western Pacific?

Dean Cheng: Well first, something to think about is that North Korea is about to become the only country in the western Pacific with combat experience. No major power out there, not Japan, not China, not Thailand, not South Korea, has recent combat experience. We do, obviously. So the North Koreans will have that. We need to remember Russia also is a Pacific country. And finally, that the Chinese are looking at the North Korean support for Russia as an aspect of China's competition with Russia for influence over North Korea. So North Korea is a separate but very dangerous conflict zone, especially because they still have millions of troops ready to roll against South Korea.

Laura Coates: Really important to hear all of your perspective and always what's going on in the region. We rely on you continuously. Thanks, Dean Chang USIP's China program senior advisor. We'll talk again.

Dean Cheng: Thank you for having me.