PrintAfghanistan: The Current Situation
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January 2011
Nine years since the international intervention, the country faces considerable obstacles to stability. 2010 marked the deadliest year on record for Afghans and international forces, with more casualties in the first nine months of the year than in the entirety of 2009. The year 2010 also saw declining confidence in the ability of President Hamid Karzai, who was inaugurated for his second term in November 2009 following a highly contested election, to combat corruption and strengthen state security and governance institutions.
In the months following his reelection, President Karzai presided over both Afghanistan's first National Peace Jirga, aimed at creating a stable future for Afghanistan by calling for reconciliation with insurgents, and the July Kabul Conference, which brought together the Afghan government, the United Nations, and international partners to outline necessary improvements to development and security initiatives. In addition to these efforts to move Afghanistan closer to a political solution following three decades of conflict, a 70-member High Peace Council was announced in September 2010 to oversee the reconciliation and reintegration process.
On December 1, 2009, calling our engagement there a “vital national interest,” President Obama announced that the U.S. would commit an additional 30,000 troops to the U.S. allied troops already in theater. The ways in which the U.S. will provide resources towards building effective Afghan security forces and strengthening governance, capacity-building, and agriculture and infrastructure projects may shift, however, in anticipation of the conditions-based troop withdrawals expected to begin in July 2011.
The September 2010 parliamentary elections subsequently took on significant importance as a benchmark of Afghanistan's ability to sustain a stable democracy. The elections were carried out despite high security threats, though voter turnout was low due to voter intimidation, and the number of fraud complaints delayed election results. These complaints fueled the January 2011 political crisis surrounding the seating of the new Parliament, wherein President Karzai called for a delay in seating new members due to ongoing complaints from losing candidates. The refusal of the new Parliamentarians to accept this delay created great optimism that improvements to governance structures may come in 2011.
January 2010
Eight years after the international intervention in Afghanistan, the country faces considerable obstacles to stability. The year 2009 was the most violent on record for Afghans and international forces since 2001, and Afghan and international public confidence is diminishing. National elections held in August 2009 were marred by massive fraud, reinforcing a widespread perception of corrupt and unaccountable governance. President Hamid Karzai, who was inaugurated for a second term on November 19 with weakened legitimacy, has pledged to clean up his government and assert Afghan leadership for security over the coming years.
On December 1, calling our engagement there a “vital national interest,” President Obama announced that the U.S. would commit 30,000 more soldiers to Afghanistan, adding to the 65,000 U.S. forces and 40,000 allied forces already in theater. He also pledged to “work with our partners, the United Nations, and the Afghan people to pursue a more effective civilian strategy.” The U.S. will continue providing resources to Afghanistan in a variety of areas, including building effective Afghan security forces, governance and capacity-building, and agriculture and infrastructure projects. The U.S. will also support Afghan led efforts to achieve political reconciliation and reintegrate insurgents.
In addition to committing more of its own forces, the U.S. government announced in January 2010 that it will work in conjunction with the Afghan National Army (ANA) to train new Afghan Security Forces, bringing the Afghan Army from its current 102,400 personnel to 171,600 personnel by October 2011. The number of ANA recruits has also increased substantially because of pay increases of up to 30% as well as new efforts to reintegrate insurgents and people previously associated with the Taliban. The international community is also working with the Afghan government to train, equip, and support the Afghan National Police (ANP), which play an equally important role in stabilizing the country. The U.S. military currently directs the largest police program in the country.
The U.S. and the international community have also emphasized the importance of a civilian surge to match the military surge. On January 21, 2010, the U.S. government launched their new civilian strategy, and a major international conference in London on January 28, 2010 reconfirmed broad international support for reconstruction efforts and programs to strengthening Afghan institutions and end the insurgency. With the support of international organizations and international funding, the Afghan Government’s National Solidarity and National Health Programs are considered among the most successful programs in the country, partially because they rely heavily on local decision-making and participation.
While the success of these programs has helped legitimize the Afghan government, the planned 2010 parliamentary elections will also be an important benchmark in assessing governance, accountability and rule of law in Afghanistan. Lessons learned from the 2009 elections and recommendations provided by the Electoral Complaints Commission (ECC) can be used to monitor the 2010 election process more effectively. The U.S. government is also working to strengthen the human and institutional capacity of the justice sector, coordinate the informal and formal justice sectors, and increase the accessibility of the justice system – particularly for women.
The lack of security, economic development, effective rule of law, and coordination of effort stand in the way of sustainable progress in the country. These problems are interrelated, none of which can be addressed without simultaneously addressing the others. The United States and the international community are committed to supporting and strengthening Afghan institutions so that they can address these issues.